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Iran
Topic Started: Jun 13 2009, 06:51 PM (862 Views)
Allech-Atreus
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The Syrians and Iraqis are basically aligned with Iran already, the Uzbeks don't want to cause any trouble, Afghanistan is still a non-state... who else is there? I mean, other than the Saudis and Jordanians... Jordan can't do much of anything and the Saudis can be trusted as far as can be thrown.

I don't want to speculate on what's going to happen, but Netanyahu's done this gig before and I don't think he'd be dumb enough to commit to a strike during such a critical time. Israel wants to see Ahmadinejad and the mullahs tossed out as much as anyone, but I think at this point a strike by the Israelis would do even more damage than the US getting involved.

Wait and see, and hope these protests and complaints go somewhere. The indication now is that Rafsanjani is putting the pressure on Khamenei to back off, and there are even rumours Khamenei might be on the out... which means Ayatollah Montazeri might become a big power player- and here's a guy who was supposed to be Supreme Leader, but pissed Khomeini off so much with his pro-Western ideals he was put under house arrest for a decade or so.

This can go several ways, and most of them are good for the rest of the world and the Iranian people.

EDIT: Apparently Ayatollah Montazeri has declared three days of mourning in for the results, and *supposedly* called any crimes committed against 'people seeking their rights' haraam, or forbidden.

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The Palentine
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I think for Bebe, its not a question about smarts, its about the security of Israel. Iran is supporting Hezballah, and Hamas. also bebe is also not the master of all he surveys. He has a colition government of right wing parties like the Irgun and Likud, who believe the safety of the nation of Israel trumps all other isues. He might not have much of a choice, especially if he Nutjob desides to imitate the North Koreans, and saber rattle with nukes, to help prop up his government.

The biggest problem is going to be the nutjob. he is a religeous fanatic, who believes that he is the one chosen to bring the hidden Imam back. I think he will do anything or use anything to remain in power. thats the main problem with fanatics...they can't be negotiated with, or be made to see reason.
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Allech-Atreus
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this is actually huge. The number of progressive and liberal-minded clerics supporting Moussavi is growing.

The split in the religious hierarchy is starting to get wider. Very interesting.
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qumkent
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I don't think Ahmadinejad is as much of a "nutjob" as he might appear. he's used radically anti-western and anti-Israeli rhetoric to come to power, but like all politicians he'll make the compromises he needs to to retain power or at least the possibility of regaining it.

Besides he's not really the one with the power to do anything too drastic, the big decisions are made for him.

I'm very taken aback by Montazeri's declaration that action against the protesters is haraam.

Like I said before I think this election is a battle ground for the Imams, the politicians are public relations shields, buffering the attention while the Mullahs and Imams battle it out in semi-private. Mind you they're getting levels of attention they haven't dealt with for a long time, one wonders what effect that scrutiny will have, it might not be positive....
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Kenny
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Allech-Atreus,Jun 16 2009
11:16 AM
I would love Obama to stand up and do more, but realistically, he runs the risk of exciting more violence and propaganda. From the start of this, Ahmadinejad has been blaming (if quietly) the "west" and America for interfering; for the US to interfere in any physical way would be a propaganda coup for the mullahs and give the radical IRG and Ansar groups more reason to crack skulls.

It's a tough line to toe- Obama obviously can't support Ahmadinejad; that would be murder for Israel and his constituency. He can't obviously support Moussavi, either, because if this whole thing ends up with the mullahs on top, the nuclear talks and diplomacy process will be fucked six ways from Sunday, because the clerics in charge all remember 1979 and SAVAK and the Shah and how the CIA supported it all.

Uh-huh, right, I don't know if I was advocating intervention or meddling with the process, but surely the least Obama could have done would be to condemn the violence and the electoral fraud, no?

Even France could do it!
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Allech-Atreus
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No arguments here.
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altan
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I have to agree that Obama needs to find his balls and denounce the fraud already. Seriously, if Ahmadinejad and his backers win this fight, the nuclear issue and diplomacy will be fucked anyway. If the hardcore extremists win, they'll just be even more encouraged to flip off the West.

Oh, and as far as that goes, the Russians can go screw themselves with a rusty pitchfork. Seriously, calling Ahmadinejad the "newly re-elected president" and saying that the election "is an internal matter"? I didn't expect any different from the Russians; I'm just profoundly disgusted.
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Allech-Atreus
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Putin is being confronted with the real threat of losing a key regional ally because of this. The anti-American, anti-NATO stance of the Russians dovetailed nicely with Ahmadinejad's rhetoric.

An editorial I read by local Iranians suggests that Ahmadinejad has always been the stooge of the establishment- that even back in 2004, the mullahs were rigging the vote to deny the reformers, led by Khatami, from gaining any more ground. People asked then, "who the hell is this Ahmadinejad guy?" Now it's clear he was always the creature of Khamenei and his backers.
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The Evil Smurfs
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Russia's also trying very very hard to continue to be relevant. They never recovered psychologically from ceasing to be a world power, and they'll do anything they can to try and pretend they still are.

Sadly, this tends to be "do the opposite of the Americans".
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artichokeville
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The Australian media seem to be concentrating on the way the protest has gone online. Maybe because they can't get info anywhere else, with the journos having been kicked out, but the Beeb is doing much the same. How's it running in the US?
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Allech-Atreus
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The MSM is doing, in my opinion, a terrible job. I think they're afraid, justifiably, for the safety of their bureaus in Iran, but their caution at the reporting is really not doing the protests any justice. CNN's got a history, too, of softballing the stories to ensure they keep their bureaus and privileges in foreign countries, so I'm not surprised.

There's a big lack of info for the mainstream, though, so I do understand a bit. Can't go outside without getting beaten up or your tapes confiscated, so they really just speculate or say conciliatory things.
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qumkent
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The UK's Channel 4 News is still providing on the ground reporting, Lindsay Hilsum their reporter just gave a live interview from Tehran which was pretty good, she's been very informative considering the restrictions.
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Kenny
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Kenny,Jun 16 2009
01:46 PM
Uh-huh, right, I don't know if I was advocating intervention or meddling with the process, but surely the least Obama could have done would be to condemn the violence and the electoral fraud, no?

Even France could do it!

And isn't this embarrassing?: Congress officially has more backbone than the president of the United States.

As far as the coverage goes, the fascination with the social networking sites is predictable and amusing -- and reminiscent of the coverage of the Howard Dean campaign, with all those geriatric fossils who barely knew what computers were growing up lecturing us about "this cool new thing called the Internet!" Fox News pretty much have been cheerleaders for the demonstrators (and Obama-bashing conservatives), CNN does little more than parrot Iranian state media, and MSNBC, taking all its cues from the White House, has been very nervous and timid about the whole affair -- except, of course, when it comes to defending Obama's soulless "neutrality" stance.
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Douria
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While we argue over how little or how much Obama is doing here, they've already blamed the west for this, and have deliberately misquoted Obama as saying he supports the protests. They also staged a mosque bombing and had 'reports' that the bomber had told his friends that people in the west had told him to go blow stuff up.

They are using that as a justification to kill people, right now. [WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES]



Anyone who's actually interested in following this can go to the forum "Anonymous" set up for the Iranian Protesters.

Edit: And the volunteer millitia is waiting at the hospitals for the injured protesters. People are having to go to the Embassy's now. It's turning into a bloodbath on the streets.
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Kenny
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Warning added to video link. Be careful when posting such links in the future.
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