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Article 50 Week: When Britain Officially Bid "Adieu" To Europe
Topic Started: Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM (310 Views)
Webster
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(The Guardian) EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal
--This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit.

Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points.

--Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says. It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.

Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.


--He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says: Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act.

Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on: If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.

--He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says: This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership.

--He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and Ukip’s Paul Nuttall are both giving speeches setting out their tests for a successful Brexit. They have both chosen to identify six. The Sun’s Harry Cole suspects there will be little overlap between the two speeches.
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--Both Sir Keir Starmer and Paul Nuttall are outlining their own "six Brexit tests" today. Not expecting much from the Venn diagram. (Harry Cole, Westminster Correspondent for the Sun - 27 March 2017)
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(The Guardian) Keir Starmer's Brexit speech - Summary
--In a debate in the Commons in December Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, set out five conditions that Labour would demand from the government’s Brexit plan. At that point Downing Street had only just agreed to publish a “plan” and the white paper was still about six weeks away. Starmer said that if the government did not accept the five conditions, Labour would seek to impose them on the government by amending the article 50 bill as it went through parliament.

By my count, the government’s white paper only met two of Starmer’s five conditions, and that assumes a rather generous interpretation of ‘enough detail to end uncertainty’ and ‘enough detail to allow parliamentary scrutiny’ (conditions one and two). The other three (‘enough detail to allow the OBR to make forecasts’, ‘meeting the concerns of devolved bodies’ and ‘able to secure consensus support) were not met. Labour did try to amend the bill as it went through the Commons, but it backed the bill anyway at third reading after its amendments failed, leading to claims that it had not tried very hard to get its way.

So what is the value of Starmer’s latest shopping list of conditions? On past form, there is little chance of them all being met. But that is probably not the point. What the speech does do is a) give Labour a position behind which it can unite, b) set up a position from which Labour will be able to criticise the government during the Brexit talks (but without being open to the charge of being fully anti-Brexit) and c) provide a pretext for Labour being able to vote against the final Brexit deal.

Here are the key points.

(1) Starmer said Labour require the Brexit deal to provide the “exact same benefits” as membership of the single market and customs union currently does.
(2) He said that, if the final Brexit deal did not pass these six tests, Labour would not support it in the Commons.
(3) He claimed that if Labour had voted against article 50 in parliament, it would have “let the government off the hook”
(4) Starmer said that he thought the Brexit vote was a vote not just against the EU, but a vote for fundamental change.
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(The Guardian) UKIP's Six Tests For Brexit
--Parliament must resume its supremacy of law-making with no impediments, qualifications or restrictions on its future actions agreed in any leaving deal.
--Britain must resume full control of its immigration and asylum policies and border controls.
--Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty.
--The UK must retake its seat on the World Trade Organisation and resume its sovereign right to sign trade agreements with other countries.
--There must be no final settlement payment to the EU, and no ongoing payments to the EU budget after Brexit.
--Brexit must be done and dusted before the end of 2019.
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(The Guardian) Theresa May has been meeting officers from Police Scotland. As the Press Association reports, she told them she wanted police forces from around the country to work together to tackle terrorism. Police Scotland is due to take the lead in a counter-terrorism exercise later this year. May said: Obviously our thoughts are still with the family and friends of those who were killed in the attack that took place in London last week.

Of course as we look to dealing with terrorism we need a multi-faceted approach. Police Scotland is the second biggest force in the UK, with huge capabilities and capacity, and working with other police forces across the UK to help to keep us safe.

Thank-you for all that you and your officers do to help keep us safe and secure. Obviously as we look to the future we want to make sure, ensure that we are getting that cross-fertilisation across police forces.


And on the counter-terrorism exercise later this year, May said: It is an important example in showing how forces can work together in this very important area, because it is essential that we use all our capacity but also that we have that cross-fertilisation and experience and expertise between forces.
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(The Guardian) Number 10 lobby briefing - Summary
--Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

**The prime minister’s spokesman appeared to back away from David Davis’s claim that Britain would be able to obtain a Brexit deal offering the “exact same benefits” as single market and customs union membership. Sir Keir Starmer highlighted this in his speech this morning. Asked if the prime minister agreed, her spokesman said that Theresa May said in her Lancaster House speech that she wanted to the UK to obtain “the greatest possible access to the single market, on a fully reciprocal basis, through a comprehensive free trade agreement”. When it was pointed out that this was not what Davis had promised, the spokesman claimed: “I don’t think there is much difference between the two.”

**The spokesman refused to give further details of what action it was demanding from social media companies in relation to encryption and the posting of extremist material online. But he said that they had “fabulous technical expertise” and could do more. And he referred reporters to what Amber Rudd, the home secretary, said on these topics in her interviews yesterday.

**The spokesman said that May would be seeking to stress the areas where the UK government and the Scottish government agree over Brexit when she meets Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland this afternoon. May would also tell the first minister that, when some powers are repatriated to the UK after Brexit, some of those could be given to the devolved administrations.

**The spokesman confirmed that the clauses in the “great repeal bill” giving ministers Henry VIII powers (powers to change primary legislation by secondary legislation) would be time-limited. The government says ministers will need these powers when they have to rewrite vast amounts of UK law to make allowance for Brexit. The spokesman also confirmed that the Scottish parliament will get these powers, because some Scottish laws will have to be redrafted too.

**The spokesman refused to deny a story in today’s Financial Times (subscription) saying the government expects Britain to remain under the remit of some EU agencies after Brexit. He dismissed this as one of “lots of speculative stories”. When the UK left the EU, it would take back control of its own laws, he said. The FT story starts: Theresa May is looking to keep Britain under the remit of some EU agencies after Brexit, in an admission that the UK does not have the time or expertise to replace European bodies with a new British regulatory regime within two years.

As the prime minister prepares to officially fire the starting gun on Brexit talks on Wednesday, officials close to the negotiations say that the UK would have little choice but to take part in some EU agencies after 2019, the scheduled date for Britain’s departure from the bloc, despite pressure from some Brexiters for a clean break.

“We simply don’t have the expertise in some areas and wouldn’t have the time to start up new agencies from scratch,” said one. They argue that the continued participation in EU agencies would at the very least be required for a transition period, increasing the pressure on Mrs May to secure a negotiated deal.
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(The Guardian) The Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael has responded to Sir Keir Starmer’s speech, claiming Labour has already failed the “real tests” on Brexit. Carmichael said: Labour has consistently failed to oppose this government’s reckless plans, choosing instead to give Theresa May a blank cheque to pursue a hard and divisive Brexit. They have waved the white flag on membership of the single market yet are now demanding we keep the exact same benefits. The hypocrisy is astounding.

Even now, Keir Starmer is admitting Labour may at most abstain on the final Brexit deal even if the government fails to meet the tests he has set. The public will see through his weasel words.

The Liberal Democrats are the real opposition to the Conservative Brexit government and the only party fighting for a Britain that is open, tolerant and united.
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(The Guardian) Theresa May's Speech in Scotland
--Theresa May is giving her speech to Department for International Development staff at their office in East Kilbride now.

The work you do here – in conjunction with your colleagues at the Department for International Development in London – says something important about Britain. It says that we are a kind and generous country. It says that we are a big country that will never let down – or turn our back on – those in need. And it says that we are a country that does – and will always – meet our commitments to the world – and particularly to those who so desperately need our support.

And that is important to remember.

For we stand on the threshold of a significant moment for Britain as we begin the negotiations that will lead us towards a new partnership with Europe.

And I want to make it absolutely clear as we move through this process that this is not – in any sense – the moment that Britain steps back from the world. Indeed, we are going to take this opportunity to forge a more Global Britain. The closest friend and ally with Europe, but also a country that looks beyond Europe to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike.
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(The Guardian) May says UK can be 'an unstoppable force' when all four nations work together
--May says aid spending shows how the nations of the UK can be “an unstoppable force” when they act together.

UK Aid is a badge of hope for so many around the world. It appears on the side of buildings, school books, medical supplies and food parcels in some of the toughest environments and most hard-to-reach countries on the planet. And it says this: that when this great union of nations – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force.
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(The Guardian) May says she will never allow UK to become 'looser and weaker'
--In her speech May also said that she would never allow the UK to become “looser or weaker”.

Because I believe when we work together, there is no limit to what we can do. A more united nation means working actively to bring people and communities together by promoting policies which support integration and social cohesion.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that means fully respecting, and indeed strengthening, the devolution settlements. But never allowing our Union to become looser and weaker, or our people to drift apart.
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--Labour now wants a Brexit that changes nothing at all. Two consequences.
1. It encourages Brussels to be hardline.
2. It loses more votes.
(Daniel Hannan, Conservative MEP - 27 March 2017)
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United Kingdom Independence Party: Six Key Tests On Brexit
1. The Legal Test: Parliament must resume its supremacy of law-making with no impediments, qualifications or restrictions on its future actions agreed in any leaving deal. Britain must wholly remove itself from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. No undertaking shall be given in the leaving agreement that constrains the UK to being an ongoing member of the European Court of Human Rights.

2. The Migration Test: Britain must resume full control of its immigration and asylum policies and border controls. There must be no impediments, qualifications or restrictions agreed to in any leaving deal. We must not be bound by any freedom of movement obligation. The departure terms must facilitate the Government finally making good on its broken promise to cut net annual net migration to the tens of thousands.

3. The Maritime Test: Joining the EEC involved a betrayal of our coastal communities at the behest of a previous Tory prime minister. They must not be betrayed again. Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty. The UK must resume complete control of its maritime exclusive economic zone - stretching 200 miles off the coast or to the half-way point between the UK and neighbouring countries. We must ensure that no constraint other than its own physical capacity or the needs of stock preservation or replenishment – as decided upon by the UK Parliament - applies to our fleet. This will give our fishing industry a long overdue chance to recover.

4. The Trade Test: The UK must retake its seat on the World Trade Organisation and resume its sovereign right to sign trade agreements with other countries. The UK must have full legal rights to set its own tariff and non-tariff barriers consistent with WTO rules. This means leaving the EU single market and customs union. Continued tariff-free trade, with no strings attached, may be offered to the EU, but if the EU declines the offer then WTO terms are the acceptable fall-back position. Post departure, both sides will have the ability to further liberalise trade on the basis of mutual gain.

5. The Money Test: There must be no final settlement payment to the EU, and no ongoing payments to the EU budget after we have left. We must also reclaim our share of financial assets from entities such as the European Investment Bank, in which it is estimated that some £9bn of UK money is vested.

6. The Time Test: Given that David Cameron held the referendum so early in the Government’s term of office, it is clearly reasonable to expect the Brexit process to be completed well before the next General Election. To go into the 2020 election with loose ends left untied or an open-ended transition still in progress would risk plunging the country into a new era of uncertainty and emboldening those who wish to overturn the referendum result. That is unacceptable. So Brexit must be done and dusted before the end of 2019.
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(The Guardian) Downing Street has issued more details about the counter-terrorism training exercise taking place later this year that will be led by Police Scotland. Theresa May spoke about it earlier on a visit to Police Scotland.

The training is part of the UK government’s national counter-terrorism exercise programme and brings together partners from policing and security, the armed forces, UK government departments and the devolved administrations to test responses to a major terrorist attack ...

Lessons learnt from these operations are fed back to the full range of operational partners, government departments and devolved administrations to further strengthen the UK’s response to a terrorist attack on UK soil.

Only second in size to the Metropolitan Police Service, Police Scotland works closely with other forces across the UK and has an important role to play in the development of UK-wide policing practices ...

The training exercise, which will take place in October, will also involve areas in the north of England.

Cross-agency counter-terrorism responses take place regularly, with exercises ranging from low capability testing to full scale national operations, and this latest event is part of a routine run.
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(The Guardian) Theresa May said leaving the EU would be a “great national moment”, as she reinforced her claims that a unified UK is a more powerful force on the world stage in her speech to aid and development officials in East Kilbride.

In the closing phases of a short speech to civil servants in the Department for International Development where she sought to make a positive case for retaining the union, she said the different parts of the UK did “amazing things” together, adding: So as Britain leaves the European Union, and we forge a new role for ourselves in the world, the strength and stability of our union will become even more important, not just for the good that standing together to our own people here at home but also for the good we can do together in the world as a global Britain, a force for good, helping to build a better future for everyone.

So as we look to the future and we face that great national moment together, I hope you will continue to play your part in the great national effort to building a fairer and more united Britain.

This united kingdom and the values at its heart are one of the greatest forces for good in the world today and when we work together and set our sights on a task we really are an unstoppable force.
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