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| Article 50 Week: When Britain Officially Bid "Adieu" To Europe | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM (318 Views) | |
| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM Post #1 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal --This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit. Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points. --Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says. It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off. Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK. --He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says: Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act. Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on: If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement. --He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says: This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership. --He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 03:15 PM Post #16 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) May confirms she is opposed to second Scottish independence referendum during Brexit talks --Speaking in Glasgow, Theresa May has confirmed that she will not give in to Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a referendum on Scottish independence before Brexit takes place. Asked about this, May said: My position is very simple and it hasn’t changed. It is that now is not the time to be talking about a second independence referendum and that’s for a couple of reasons. First of all, now is the point when we are triggering article 50, we’re starting negotiations for leaving the European Union. Now is the time when we should be pulling together, not hanging apart. Pulling together to make sure we get the best possible deal for the whole of the UK. Also I think it would be unfair on the people of Scotland to ask them to make a significant decision until all the facts were known, at a point where nobody knows what the situation is going to be. My position isn’t going to change, which is that now is not the time to be talking about a second independence referendum. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 03:16 PM Post #17 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon met in a Glasgow hotel. At least no one will be able to accuse them of wasting money on a palatial suite. On the basis of this picture, the setting looks remarkably humdrum. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 03:21 PM Post #18 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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--Theresa May met @NicolaSturgeon in Glasgow hotel room after Downing Street turned down offer of (more secure) Scot Govt building nearby (James Matthews, Sky News - 27 March 2017) |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:15 PM Post #19 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) You can tell it’s a historic week; two days before the triggering of article 50, the BBC have wheeled out David Dimbleby to chair a Britain after Brexit Question Time special, on a Monday. The panellists are: --David Davis, the Brext secretary --Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit Secretary --Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem former deputy prime minister --Suzanne Evans, the Ukip health spokesperson --Alex Salmond, the SNP former Scottish first minister --Melanie Phillips, the Times columnist Among tonight’s panel Suzanne Evans, like almost all ‘Kippers, is a diehard. I think Melanie Phillips is too, although I’m afraid it’s a long time since I’ve read her column, so I can’t be sure. Unusually for a cabinet Brexiteer, David Davis is probably a diehard/cautious optimist cross. Boris Johnson and Liam Fox are both pure diehard. Sir Keir Starmer is probably, at heart, a devastated pessimist, but he has been trying very hard to think like an accepting pragmatist. Nick Clegg is a platinum card devastated pessimist. And, intellectually, Alex Salmond is probably a devastated pessimist too, although for nationalists Brexit opens up the possibility of Scottish independence, and so “pessimist” as a label is probably not appropriate. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:16 PM Post #20 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) David Davis says Britain will not pay anything like £50bn to EU Q: Should we expect to pay a large Brexit payment to the EU when we leave? David Davis says he does not know about £50bn, or £40bn or £60bn. He does not know where the figures come from. The prime minister has said the UK will meet its obligations. But he does not expect to see “that sort of money” change hands. A Lords committee said Britain would owe nothing. Davis says Britain will not pay anything like £50bn to the EU. Q: So you might pay nothing? Davis says he is not going to negotiate on the programme. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:24 PM Post #21 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) What David Davis said about not paying anything like £50bn to the EU to leave --Here is the key quote from David Davis. I don’t know about 50bn. I’ve seen 40, 50, 60, I’ve seen no explanation for any of them. And the prime minister said we are coming to the end of the time when we are paying enormous sums to the European Union. We will, of course, meet our international obligations. But we expect also our rights to be respected too. So I don’t think we’re going to be seeing that sort of money change hands ... We will meet our international obligations, whatever that turns out to be. But that is nothing like [what] we are talking about here. Indeed the House of Lords committee on this subject reckoned that that was zero. Q: So you might pay zero? We’ll wait and see. I’m not going to do the negotiating on your programme, David. David Dimbleby asked about 50bn. He did not specify whether he was talking pounds or euros, although £50bn (€60bn) is a figure that has been widely quoted. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:25 PM Post #22 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --Keir Starmer said that the final Brexit agreement must reflect the "best of British values" (BBC Question Time, 27 March 2017) |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:26 PM Post #23 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Davis says leaving EU with no deal would not be as a damaging as critics claim --Q: Is no deal better than a bad deal? Nick Clegg and Alex Salmond both say no deal would be the worst possible deal. David Davis says the UK is not aiming for no deal. He says last summer people were talking about the UK being punished. In those circumstances no deal would be better than a bad deal. He says leaving the EU with no deal would not be as bad as Clegg and Salmond say. He says the government has planned for this. When it is put to him that he told the Commons Brexit committee last week that he had not done an assessment of what leaving with no deal, and trading with the EU on WTO terms, would cost the economy, he says the government has done a lot of contingency planning for this. It would not be as bad as critics claim, he says. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:27 PM Post #24 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Keir Starmer says leaving with no deal would be a terrible thing to do. He says he is worried that people are talking this up as an option. He says he was director of public prosecutions for five years. If we crash out with no agreement, we will be less safe, because we will leave criminal justice information-sharing agreements. Suzanne Evans says this is just project fear. She does not believe Starmer. It is “utter nonsense” to suggest we will stop sharing information with the EU. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:28 PM Post #25 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Nick Clegg says he used to work in trade negotiations. He says “petulant foot-stamping” does not impress people in negotiations like this. He says, if he were prime minister, he would have tried to divide the differences, especially between the old and the young. He would have left the EU, because the British people voted for it, but not in this “self-destructive way”. Sir Keir Starmer says there have been many forecasts about Brexit. “How many have turned out to be right,” asks David Davis. “None.” Starmer says every time someone challenges Brexit, they are denounced. That is not healthy. Alex Salmond says he agrees with Nick Clegg. He says almost every country in the world is in a trading bloc. He does not think there will be no deal, he says. But he thinks David Davis will have to make so many concessions that Brexit supporters will be disappointed. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:29 PM Post #26 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Q: What do panellists think of Suzanne Evans call for judges to be politically appointed, after the supreme court ruling? Sir Keir Starmer says it was “disgraceful”. Evans says she was saying there should be more political input into their appointment, not that they should be chosen for their politics. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:30 PM Post #27 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Davis appears to back away from claim UK-EU trade deal will offer 'exact same benefits' as single market --David Davis says deals involve finding a solution that works for everyone. But Nick Clegg argues that this is different. Most trade deal involve trying to increase trade. This one is unique because it involves a country wanting to do less trade with the EU. A member of the audience says they need us more than we need them. Q: [To Davis] You said you want a deal that will deliver “the exact same benefits” as now? Davis says he wants to raise expectations, because he is negotiating for his country. He wants to get the best possible deal, he says. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:40 PM Post #28 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Q: Will there be a cap on the number of EU nationals coming to the UK after Brexit? --Suzanne Evans says we need a level of immigration that is sustainable. She claims no one in the leave campaign ever said they wanted to stop immigration. Alex Salmond laughs. So Ukip were saying they wanted more immigration from outside the EU? Evans says Ukip did argue for that. So it was all a secret plot to increase immigration, Salmond scoffs. He says the UK should decide unilaterally that EU nationals living here will be welcome to stay. This goes down particularly well with the audience. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:41 PM Post #29 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Davis says EU immigration won’t necessarily go down every year under Brexit --David Davis says he agrees with Salmond on one thing: EU nationals in the UK should be made to feel welcome, and do an important job. He says there are 4m people we need to worry about: 3m EU nationals here, and 1m Britons abroad. We do not want to treat any of them as bargaining chips. He says almost all EU leaders have agreed that that they want the same, that the government’s approach is right, and that they want to sort this out early in the talks. Sir Keir Starmer says the government voted down amendments on this when the article 50 bill went through parliament. EU nationals should not be used as bargaining chips, he says. Q: Will there be a cap? --Davis says the first thing is to bring migration back under UK control. That is his job, he says. Then the Home Office will decide how many migrants we need. The government will only do what is in the national interest. Sometimes that will mean more, sometimes that will mean less. Q: You mean more than now? --Davis suggests he just means it will go up and down from year to year. He says he still thinks in time the government will be able to get annual net migration below 100,000. |
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| Webster | Mar 27 2017, 04:42 PM Post #30 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) What Davis said about EU migration not necessarily going down every year after Brexit --This is what David Davis said about EU immigration after Brexit. I think most people are in favour of migration so long as it is managed. The point is, it will be managed. My job is to bring the job [control of immigration] back. And it is for the home secretary to decide what the policy will be. But I cannot imagine that the policy will be anything other than that which is in the national interest, which means that from time to time we’ll need more, from time to time we’ll need less migrants. That is how it will no doubt work. And that will be in everybody’s interests, the migrants and the citizens of the United Kingdom. Q: Sometimes it will be be more? More than now? --What it will be is whatever the government judges to be sustainable. Q: So the tens of thousands, that the Tory party has gone on about for a long time [the pledge to get annual net migration below 100,000] no longer applies? --I think we’ll get there. But the simple truth is that we have to manage this problem. You’ve got industry dependent on migrants. You’ve got social welfare, the national health service. You have to make sure they continue to work. |
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