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Article 50 Week: When Britain Officially Bid "Adieu" To Europe
Topic Started: Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM (317 Views)
Webster
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(The Guardian) EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal
--This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit.

Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points.

--Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says. It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.

Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.


--He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says: Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act.

Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on: If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.

--He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says: This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership.

--He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states.
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Webster
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--Sounds like a system where limits are set by economic requirements by something like the independent Migration Advisory Committee (Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News - 27 March 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) David Davis says the joint ministerial committee (the comprises ministers from the UK government and from the devolved administrations) has met four times to discuss the Scottish government’s Brexit plan to keep Scotland in the single market.

He says the UK government is trying to get a deal that will allow the UK to sell into the single market. So London and Edinburgh want the same thing on this, but are just trying to achieve it in different ways.

He says the Scottish plan would involve free movement applying to Scotland but not to England. That would break the country apart. That is what nationalists want, he says.
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Webster
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--Alex Salmond says that the attitude of Westminster towards the devolved administrations has been 'contemptuous' #bbcqt (BBC Question Time, 27 March 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Nick Clegg says he feels most sorry for young people. They voted by a large majority against Brexit, but will have to live with it. That is why there should be a referendum on the final vote, he says.

Suzanne Evans says Salmond speaks for the SNP, not Scotland. And a third of SNP voters voted for Brexit, she says.

David Davis says that, when Alex Salmond talks about Theresa May saying she would get a UK-wide agreement on Brexit, he is quoting from a newspaper, the Daily Telegraph. In fact, May just said she would seek such an agreement, he says.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Paying EU for access to the single market has been ruled out, Davis suggests
--Davis says the British people voted to leave the EU. That means leaving the single market. You cannot be half in and half out.

David Dimbleby asks Davis if he still backs paying a contribution to the EU for access to the single market. Davis says he said in the Commons that the government would consider this. But, as the prime minister said to him later that day, considering something is not the same as doing it.
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Webster
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--Sir Keir Starmer says that people must stop talking in a way that perpetuates division and must unify going forward #bbcqt (BBC Question Time, 27 March 2017)

--Keir starmer seems to rule out second ref because we will be out before transitional arrangements expire Strange line to take (Philip Webster, Fmr. Political Editor - The Times of London -- 27 March 2017)

--David Davis saying there will be no cap on immigration is a rare accidental news event by the May administration. (Michael Savage, The Times of London - 27 March 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Three leading consumer-focused organisations, Citizens Advice, MoneySavingExpert.com and Which?, are urging Theresa May to set up a cross-government working group to ensure that consumers get the best deal from Brexit. They have made their proposal in an open letter. Here’s an extract.

A vast range of consumer rights, safety and quality standards, and enforcement regimes is founded in EU legislation. These rights and safeguards are woven into our everyday lives, and can often be taken for granted. They range from having access to a basic bank account, assurances that food and electrical products are safe, to seeking redress when buying products across borders.

It is therefore vital that core consumer rights and protections do not fall by the wayside during discussions to leave the EU, any future trade deals with the EU and other countries, as well as in our future domestic framework. This will safeguard UK consumers from any potentially negative effects of Brexit, while taking advantage of and maximising any opportunities.

We are calling for a cross-government high-level working group focused solely on securing the best possible deal for UK consumers. This is imperative for the economy and our communities, and we are ready and willing to help you achieve this.

-Read more: https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/how-citizens-advice-works/media/press-releases/letter-to-the-prime-minister-re-brexit-and-consumers/
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Last night on Question Time David Davis, the Brexit secretary, quashed speculation that EU migration will inevitably fall after Brexit. In some years it might need to go up, he said.

And in the Daily Telegraph (paywall) today William Hague, the Conservative former foreign secretary, is saying something very similar. He has written a column offering some advice on how the UK and the EU can reach a Brexit agreement and he proposing some “creative thinking” on immigration.

Those red lines leave such a narrow space for the ‘bold and ambitious free trade agreement’ that the prime minister has called for that some creative solutions are needed. For instance, instead of trying to control the number of EU migrants, the U.K. could control the conditions under which they work here – no benefits, and no crime or they’re out. Otherwise give them permits to do the crucial work they do in the NHS and many other services or industries. Then we control our borders but in a way compatible with free trade.
-Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/27/many-europe-still-think-brexit-can-stopped-must-show-serious/
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(The Guardian) Open Britain, the group campaigning for a soft Brexit, has published a report (pdf) highlighting what it says are 10 promises made by the government and Vote Leave about Britain’s departure from the EU. It is putting them on the record because it suspects they won’t be kept.

The 10 promises are:
1 - EU TRADE. The ‘exact same benefits’ delivered as we currently have within the Single Market and Customs Union.
2 - TRADE DEALS. Lots of new trade deals with new countries that are ready to sign on the day of our departure from the EU
3 - MONEY. Savings from contributions invested in public services, including £350m a week for the NHS.
4 - NORTHERN IRELAND. No changes to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
5 - RIGHTS. Citizens’, workers’ and environmental rights currently guaranteed by membership of the EU to be fully protected.
6 - SECURITY. A deal on security that maintains and enhances our cooperation with the EU.
7 - UNITED KINGDOM. The integrity of the Union protected and made stronger.
8 - SCIENCE. Science and research partnerships with the EU strengthened.
9 - DATE. The UK will be fully out, including required ratification, in 2019.
10 - IMMIGRATION. A dramatic reduction in net migration while also keeping the UK open to the talent and skills that UK business need.

In a joint statement Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem former deputy prime minister, Chris Leslie, the Labour former shadow chancellor, and Nicky Morgan, the Conservative former education secretary, said: Vote Leave and the government have made specific promises: leaving is a cost-free option; trade will be enhanced not hampered; there will be major savings from the EU budget; core arrangements with the EU, for example over national security, will remain unchanged; and the integrity of the United Kingdom will be protected. Now that article 50 is being triggered, people will expect these promises to be delivered: this is the government’s Brexit contract with the British people.
-Read more: http://www.open-britain.co.uk/cross_party_mps_from_the_open_britain_campaign_will_hold_the_government_to_account_for_their_brexit_contract_with_the_british_people
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Hilary Benn, the pro-remain Labour MP, has done a heroic job so far chairing the Commons Brexit committee. It’s a huge committee, with 21 members, and it includes a variety of opinion ranging from uber-leaver Michael Gove to arch-remainer Pat McFadden. Yet Benn has managed to get them all to agree two unanimous reports, one calling for, among other things, the publication of a white paper, and another saying the government should make a unilateral declaration saying EU nationals in the UK will be allowed to stay after Brexit.

But it couldn’t last. According to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, the committee has now split, because leave MPs cannot support the draft of its latest report.

--hearing Brexiteers 'politely' walked out of Brexit Cttee, claim Benn put forward 155 page report 'so gloomy it couldn't be allowed to stand' (Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News - 28 March 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Yesterday Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, published Labour’s six conditions for Brexit. YouGov has been polling on them, and this afternoon it has published its findings.

As YouGov’s Chris Curtis explains in his write-up, voters like the conditions, but do not think Labour would be justified in opposing Brexit if they are not met.

Despite widespread support for Labour’s tests the public don’t want them to derail Brexit. For all but one test, people believe that each ‘would be nice to have, but Britain should STILL LEAVE if it is not met’. When taking the package as a whole, just a third (32%) think Labour would be justified in opposing Brexit if all six conditions are not met, compared to over four in ten (44%) who think the party would not be justified. Around a quarter (24%) are not sure.

Moreover, the tests the prime minister is probably least likely to pass – such as delivering for all regions and nations of the UK, and delivering the “exact same benefits” as Britain currently has from the single market and customs union – are the ones that the public are least likely to be seen as essential. Only 29% and 27% of the public respectively believe the UK should NOT leave if the test is not met.


Curtis may have misunderstood Labour’s position. Starmer said, if the tests were not met, Labour would not support the final Brexit deal in the Commons. He did not say Labour would try to block Brexit. His hope is that he would be able to send Theresa May back to Brussels to try for something different.

But Curtis also says Labour’s strategy may pay dividends in the long run.

Our research last year showed that the public are currently unforgiving towards Remainers who appear to be trying to block Brexit, with nearly six in ten (59%) describing calls for a second referendum as illegitimate. But when looking at these new tests, 45% of British adults think they are reasonable, compared to 31% of voters thinking they are unreasonable. This allows Labour to be seen to be reasonably supporting the government as article 50 is triggered whilst also hedging its bets so they can later vote against Brexit if public support turns during the re-negotiation period.

So, although public don’t yet see these conditions as essential and don’t want Labour to oppose Brexit if the government fails to meet them, there are many reasons why this could end up being a shrewd move by Sir Keir Starmer – especially if public opinion does shift over the next couple of years.
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Webster
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Well, the day has arrived for Brexit to be triggered....quoting Sky News:
Quote:
 
Welcome to live coverage of what will be a historic day for Britain, as Theresa May triggers Article 50 to begin the UK's exit from the European Union
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Webster
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Posted Image
(Sky News) The letter invoking Article 50, signed personally by the PM, will be delivered to European Council president Donald Tusk by Britain's EU ambassador Sir Tim Barrow at around 12.30pm UK time. Once it has been accepted, Article 50 has been officially triggered.
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(Sky News) Article 50 trigger timeline
--Before that happens, the Cabinet will meet at No 10 to discuss the contents of the letter at 8am. Then, at around the same time the letter is delivered, the PM will make a statement in the Commons confirming the start of the two-year exit process.

At 12.45pm, as the PM concludes her statement, the full text of the letter will be released. Copies of the letter will be sent to the leaders of all other 27 EU member states and Mr Tusk will make a statement soon after.

At 4.15pm UK time, European Parliament President Antonio Tajani and Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt will hold a joint press conference. Shortly after, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is set to be asked questions about Brexit during a visit to Malta.
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(Sky News) A Sky Data poll has found that 50% of Britons are happy or very happy about the triggering of Article 50, while only 36% said they felt sad about leaving the EU. It suggests that there has been little voter remorse for the referendum decision last June to quit the EU, when 52% of the population voted to leave while 48% voted to remain.
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