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Article 50 Week: When Britain Officially Bid "Adieu" To Europe
Topic Started: Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM (316 Views)
Webster
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(The Guardian) EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal
--This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit.

Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points.

--Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says. It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.

Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.


--He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says: Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act.

Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on: If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.

--He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says: This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership.

--He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states.
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Webster
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(Sky News) Morning Papers

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The triggering of Article 50 dominates this morning's national newspapers, with The Sun calling it "the most momentous day in Britain's modern history"

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Meanwhile, The Guardian says the UK will "step into the unknown" with the start of divorce proceedings with the European Union
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Webster
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(Sky News( What will follow the triggering of Article 50?
Negotiations between the EU and Britain won't begin until May, but things will kick into life on 29 April as leaders from the other 27 EU member states will meet to agree guidelines for the talks. During the two-year process, Brexit Secretary David Davis and European Commission negotiator Michel Barnier are expected to meet twice a week.
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Webster
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--#Brexit made EU citizens worry about their future in EU27 and UK.EU will be firm on their rights @The3Million #citizensfirst (Michel Barnier, EU Brexit Chief Negotiator - 29 March 2017)
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Webster
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--It's a historic day - Theresa May will sign the letter to start process of leaving the EU. There's no going back now...how are you feeling? (Sophy Ridge, Sky News - 29 March 2017)
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Webster
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(Sky News) As Brexit talks are set to begin, negotiators have been warned that the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal would be a "lose-lose" outcome for thousands of manufacturing firms on both sides.
--Read more: http://news.sky.com/story/coalition-of-manufacturers-warns-on-lose-lose-brexit-for-both-sides-10816970
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Webster
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(Sky News) EU 'wants split to be as painful as possible'
--The EU "undeniably" intends to punish Britain over Brexit, far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has claimed.

The National Front leader said European leaders could "feel" other members want to break away and will attempt to prevent a "domino effect". "Blackmail didn't work, project fear didn't work either," she told BBC's Newsnight. "So they have to try to make the separation as painful as possible. Will they succeed? I don't think so."
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Almost half a century of history is about to be consigned to the dustbin as Theresa May formally triggers article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process of taking the UK out of the EU within two years. As epochal landmarks go, this is probably not quite as important as the referendum vote on 23 June last year, or the day we finally leave, but it is definitely one for the history books.

We knew it was coming, of course, and today will primarily be a day of reflection for what this all means. But May will be publishing her article 50 letter, which is being delivered to Donald Tusk, the European council president, and it will provide fresh clues as to the government’s negotiating strategy.

She will also make a statement to MPs, and from what they say we may pick up hints as to what her party will and will not accept.
-Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/28/theresa-may-to-call-on-britons-to-unite-as-she-triggers-article-50
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Philip Hammond's Today interview
--The Today programme is playing the Philip Hammond interview now. It was recorded a little earlier, because Hammond is now is a cabinet meeting.

Q: Are you excited or nervous?
Hammond says this is an exciting time. It is a time to put divisions behind us.

Q: Gus O’Donnell said on the programme this is like jumping out of a plane with a parachute designed by the EU. It’s a leap in the dark.
Hammond says he does not accept that. There was a lot of anger after the June vote. But now people are starting to think rationally. “The overwhelming majority of our counterparts in the EU” want a sensible, pragmatic discussion.

Q: Was Boris Johnson speaking for the government when he said it would be perfectly okay to leave with no deal? Hammond says the government has prepared for different outcomes.

Q: But should the markets understand you to think that would be okay?
Hammond says the government wants a deal. He is confident the government will get one. Theresa May needs “the maximum flexibility, the maximum negotiating muscle”, he says.

Q: What would the consequences of no deal be? Lines of lorries queuing up at Dover, as Michel Barnier, the European commission’s Brexit negotiator, predicted?
Hammond says this would not be in the interests of anyone in Europe.
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(The Guardian) Q: The EU will have to be able to show that the UK will be worse off out than in.
Hammond says this is a negotiation. There will be give and take on both sides. We will not be a member of the single market, or a full member of the customs union. The fact that we have set that out tells our EU partners that “we understand that we cannot cherry pick, that we cannot have our cake and eat it”.

Q: You wanted to stay in the customs union. Do you still want that?
Hammond says being in the CU would mean consequences we could not accept. But he says he is confident that the UK can get a solution that involves frictionless borders.

Q: Has the government conceded that EU nationals can come here after today with full rights? Hammond says of course they can come after today.

Q: But will they get full rights. There was talk of today being the cut off, after which EU nationals would not get full rights.
Hammond says we remain a full member of the EU for the moment. He says the government wants to negotiate a deal on EU nationals.

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(The Guardian) Q: A Lords committee says the UK can leave without paying anything. Why are they wrong?
Hammond says that is an important report. But our EU partners take a different view. He says this will be a subject for negotiation. But he does not recognise some of the very large numbers that have been bandied about in Brussels.

Q: Have you seen the article 50 letter?
Of course, says Hammond.

Q: Some people think you have been marginalised.
Hammond says he has not felt marginalised. Theresa May will set out to parliament what the letter says.

Q: It is said May ordered you to drop your budget plan to increase national insurance contributions for the self-employed.
Hammond says he has addressed this before. After the budget there was a view this broke an election promise. He and May decided to shelve those plans.

Q: Are there any surprises in the article 50 letter?
Hammond says May set our her objectives in the January Lancaster House speech. The letter builds on it. It will go further in expressing how we want to take the negotiation forward.
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--'we can't have our cake and eat it' says Hammond - I wonder who he could possibly be thinking of when he said that.... (Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News - 29 March 2017)

--Finally, a reality check for Boris from Philip Hammond: "We can't have out cake and eat it" (Jack Blanchard, Daily Mirror - 29 March 2017)

--The Hammond-Boris war continues. "We can't have our cake and eat it," says Hammond, refusing to endorse Bojo's sangfroid about no deal (Tim Shipman, The Times of London - 29 March 2017)
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--Britain's chief Brexit postman arrives for work #Article50 (Jennifer Rankin, The Guardian - 29 March 2017)
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(The Guardian) Today’s Financial Times splash (subscription), by George Parker and Alex Barker, says that there are new signs that the government is “willing to compromise” over Brexit. Here is an extract.

Although Mrs May will make clear she is willing to walk away without a deal, behind the scenes British officials have signalled a willingness to soften rigid positions in areas such as the role of the European court of justice and paying the so-called “exit bill”, as well as a readiness to strengthen security ties …

In another concession, Downing Street said this week that Mrs May would not use the article 50 notification to announce the immediate cessation of full citizens’ rights for new EU arrivals in Britain. The European parliament insists full rights must apply until Brexit is complete.

There are also signs that Mrs May’s promise “to end the jurisdiction of the European court of justice in Britain” is being recalibrated to provide room for manoeuvre in one of the most contentious areas of the negotiation.

The Brexit department said that this meant “bringing to an end the direct jurisdiction” of the court in the UK, raising the possibility that the ECJ might have some non-binding or partial role in settling trade disputes and in policing a transitional deal.

--Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/d4be8236-13a8-11e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76
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(The Guardian) European parliament sets out tough conditions for Brexit talks
--(The Guardian's) Daniel Boffey has filed a story based on a leaked copy of a European parliament resolution setting out its stance on the Brexit negotiations. Here is how it starts.

Britain will not be given a free trade deal by the EU in the next two years, and a transition arrangement to cushion the UK’s exit after 2019 can last no longer than three years, a European parliament resolution has vowed, in the first official response by the EU institutions to the triggering of article 50 by Theresa May.

And here is Daniel’s summary of the key points.

The chamber’s general principles for the coming talks include that:

(1) a future relationship agreement between the European union and the UK “can only be concluded once the United Kingdom has withdrawn from the EU”.
(2) there may be a transitional deal for after 2019 to ensure that custom controls and barriers on trade are not enforced on day one of Brexit, but that these arrangements should not exceed three years and will be “limited in scope as they can never be a substitute for union membership”.
(3) the European court of justice will be responsible for settling any legal challenges during the transition period.
(4) the UK will be able to revoke its notification of article 50 but this must be “subject to conditions set by all EU-27 so they cannot be used as a procedural device or abused in an attempt to improve the actual terms of the United Kingdom’s membership”.
(5) should Britain seek to negotiate any free trade deals with other countries while it is still an EU member state, there will be no future discussion of a deal with the union.
(6) there will be no special deal for the City of London “providing UK-based undertakings preferential access to the single market and, or the customs union”.
(7) the cut-off date after which EU nationals coming to the UK lose the automatic right to residency in the UK must not be before 29 March 2019, when the country leaves the EU, or the British government will be breaking EU law.
(8) Britain should pay all its liabilities “arising from outstanding commitments as well as make provision for off-balance sheet items, contingent liabilities and other financial costs that arise directly as a result of its withdrawal”.
(9) the outcome of the negotiations on the future EU-UK relationship “cannot involve any trade-off between internal and external security including defence cooperation, on the one hand, and the future economic relationship, on the other hand”.

-Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/first-eu-response-to-article-50-takes-tough-line-on-transitional-deal
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--This morning’s Libération front page says it all really #Brexit #Article50 (Franco-British Chamber of Commerce - 29 March 2017)

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(Kate Connolly, The Guardian - 29 March 2017)
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