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Article 50 Week: When Britain Officially Bid "Adieu" To Europe
Topic Started: Mar 27 2017, 02:51 PM (312 Views)
Webster
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(The Guardian) EU's chief Brexit negotiator warns of 'distinct possibility' UK will leave with no deal
--This is the week that will see Theresa May triggering article 50, starting the purportedly irreversible process that will see Britain sliding down the slipway and leaving the EU after two years. Today May is in Scotland, giving a speech touching on this and holding what promises to be a very awkward meeting with Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has emerged her most threatening UK opponent over Brexit. Two other opposition forces, Labour and Ukip, are also setting out their conditions for Brexit.

Across the channel the main obstacle to UK Brexit success may turn out to be Michel Barnier, the European commission’s lead negotiator on this issue. He has written an article for today’s Financial Times (paywall) politely raising threats and conditions and it is well worth reading. Here are the main points.

--Barnier says there is a “distinct possibility” that the UK and the EU will fail to strike a deal. That would have “severe consequences”, he says. It goes without saying that a no-deal scenario, while a distinct possibility, would have severe consequences for our people and our economies. It would undoubtedly leave the UK worse off.

Severe disruption to air transport and long queues at the Channel port of Dover are just some of the many examples of the negative consequences of failing to reach a deal. Others include the disruption of supply chains, including the suspension of the delivery of nuclear material to the UK.


--He says the UK will have to reach an early agreement about paying money an exit fee to the EU as it leaves for the talks to succeed. He does not set out how much he expects the UK to pay, although it has been repeatedly reported that it will demand about €60bn (£50bn). He says: Beneficiaries of programmes financed by the European budget will need to know if they can continue relying on our support. There is no price to pay to leave the EU but we must settle our accounts. The 27 member states will honour their commitments and we expect the UK to do the same — because it is the mutually responsible way to act.

Barnier cites this as one of three issues that need to be addressed early in the negotiations. The other two are guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals in the UK and Britons living in other EU states, and not undermining peace in Northern Ireland. He goes on: If we cannot resolve these three significant uncertainties at an early stage, we run the risk of failure. Putting things in the right order maximises the chances of reaching an agreement.

--He reaffirms his desire to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU before negotiating a future trade deal. The British government wants to negotiate both in parallel. But Barnier says: This means agreeing on the orderly withdrawal of the UK before negotiating any future trade deal. The sooner we agree on these principles, the more time we will have to discuss our future partnership.

--He says the EU will be “fair yet firm” in the talks in defending the interests of its 27 members states.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Pushed on the security trade question, Tajani says the EU wants a good agreement with the UK, which will be a friend after Brexit. But he says “close cooperation on defence, police, intelligence, and action against terrorism” should continue whether there is a deal or not.

For parliament this is a priority, he says, but if there is “a negative outcome” on a future trade deal, cooperation against terrorism will still be crucial. “We want to support the UK as the UK has supported France and Germany,” he says.

Verhofstadt agrees: he says security is “far too important to be a bargaining chip”. He “tries to be a gentleman”, he adds in response to a question, so would not even dream of using the word “blackmail”.

He also says an outline general agreement on the future EU-UK relationship should be part of the article 50 talks.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Jonathan Edwards, Plaid Cymru’s Brexit spokesman, has said that Theresa May is pursuing a hard Brexit that will be bad for Wales. He said: The prime minister said that she would seek a UK-wide agreement before beginning her Brexit negotiations but instead she has acted as if she is the head of a unitary British State, wilfully ignoring the fact that she is the prime minister of a union of four members. The weak and divided Labour opposition has allowed this to happen and the spineless Labour Welsh government continues to neglect its duty to stand up to Westminster for the interests of the people of Wales.

The UK prime minister has set the British State on a course towards a cliff-edge but it doesn’t have to be this way. Plaid Cymru will continue to fight for a more sensible conclusion to the Brexit referendum that puts jobs, wages and people’s quality of life before irresponsible ideological obsessions.”
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Webster
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--Our #Brexit team is ready. We will work for #EU27 member states, EU institutions & citizens; together with all Commission services. (Michel Barnier, EU Brexit Chief Negotiator - 29 March 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said Theresa May is taking a “reckless gamble” with Brexit. Responding to the triggering of article 50, she said: Fully nine months after the EU referendum, the UK government still cannot answer basic questions about what Brexit will mean for businesses, for the economy generally, and for the type of society we live in.

I wish the prime minister well in the negotiations which lie ahead, because a good Brexit deal for the UK is in Scotland’s interests.

But the UK government’s hardline approach to Brexit is a reckless gamble, and it is clear, even at these very early stages, that the final deal is almost certain to be worse economically than the existing arrangements – and potentially much worse.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Ukip MEPs have been celebrating in Brussels.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Stephen Dorrell, the former Conservative health secretary and chair of campaign group the European Movement, has put out a statement saying he refuses to accept Theresa May’s call for people to unite behind Brexit. He said: Theresa May says that the referendum result means we should all come together and collude in a pretence that Brexit is good for Britain. I profoundly disagree.

Too often I hear an argument which begins ‘the referendum result must be accepted; I regret the outcome, but we have to make the best of it’.

I was a member of the cabinet which lost power to Labour in 1997. On that occasion I had been closely involved in the development of locally managed NHS trusts and other health reforms during the 1990s. My Labour successor, Frank Dobson, made it clear he wanted to reverse those changes. No one expected me to declare that it had all been a terrible mistake. It wasn’t and I didn’t.

And when Labour government changed its mind and confirmed what was in effect the same policy – under a different brand and with more money – I spoke in its support.

-Read more: http://euromove.org.uk/brexit-is-bad-for-britain/
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Sterling was mixed during afternoon trading, as excitement over the official trigger of article 50 waned, the Press Association reports.

The pound, which rose 0.6% against the euro earlier in the day, was only up 0.1% versus the euro at 1.153 by the late afternoon.

The UK currency fell further into the red against the US dollar, down 0.4% to 1.240.

The FTSE 100 ended the day higher by 0.4% to 7,373.72, thanks in part to the weaker pound.

Neil Wilson, a senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said: “The countdown to Brexit has begun but by and large markets shrugged off the triggering of article 50.

“Stocks and the pound took the momentous decision in their stride, largely as expected as Brexit was already priced in.

“We might have expected a touch more volatility as the UK delivered the letter but markets were pretty calm.”
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Rinku
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I wish them luck. Hope the EU can manage without Britain.
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Webster
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Rinku
Mar 29 2017, 10:08 PM
I wish them luck. Hope the EU can manage without Britain.
I think everyone's thinking that atm.....
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Webster
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(The Guardian) David Davis rejects claims article 50 letter contained 'blackmail' threat
--Theresa May sent her article 50 letter to Brussels yesterday and, intentionally or not - it is still not entirely clear to what extent this was deliberate - she has been accused of issuing the EU with a threat to weaken security cooperation if the UK does not get a trade deal. Or blackmail, as some are putting it, as the Guardian splash reports.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has been giving interviews this morning. On the Today programme a few minutes ago John Humphrys asked him about this, quoting the Sun’s splash headline.

Asked if the letter amounted to “blackmail”, Davis replied: No, it didn’t.

He said the prime minister was just setting out the facts. What the prime minister was saying was, if we have no deal - remember, what we want is a deal - it is bad for both of us ... if we don’t have a deal, one of the things we are going to lose is the current arrangements on justice and home affairs ... We want a deal. That’s the point. We want a deal. And [Theresa May] was making the point that it is bad for both of us if we don’t have a deal. That, I think, is a perfectly reasonable point to make and not in any sense a threat.

He also said this morning that EU leaders were not interpreting the letter in the way the British papers were. I spent all of yesterday afternoon on the telephone talking to my opposite numbers in the parliament, in the commission, around all the member states. Virtually all of them said spontaneously, it’s a very positive letter, the tone was good, and so on.
-Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/brexit-eu-condemns-mays-blackmail-over-security-cooperation
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Yesterday Philip Hammond, the chancellor, had the 8.10am slot on the Today programme. Other ministers doing media yesterday included Amber Rudd, who was on Sky in the afternoon, Theresa May, who was interviewed by Andrew Neil on the BBC at 7pm, and Damian Green, the work and pensions secretary, who was on Newsnight. With Britain triggering the biggest change in foreign policy for half a century, Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has been mysteriously silent. The BBC’s Nick Robinson has the obvious explanation.

(1) Now clear why Boris kept off air this week. Leave's promises - to get back £350m, to slash immigration & to have cake & eat it - all binned
(2) Striking that was 3 Remainers - May, Hammond & Green* - who did main media on Article 50 day (*and old Oxford chums)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) David Davis's LBC Interview
--David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is now being interviewed on LBC.

Q: Are we paying a big divorce bill to the EU?
Davis says we will not be paying enormous sums to the EU anymore. Beyond that, this is a matter for the negotiation, he says.

Q: Was the article 50 letter a little too aggressive?
No, says Davis. He repeats the point about how EU leaders found the letter positive.

Theresa May was the longest-serving and arguably most successful home secretary of modern times, he says. He says she takes this very seriously. She was making the point that the UK wants a deal on security. It wants “the equivalent” of what we have now.

Davis says there is “not a bad mood” on the continent about Brexit. Other EU countries wish we were not leaving, he says.

Q: Did you shudder when Jeremy Corbyn said he would hold you to account?
Davis laughs. Then he says that is Corbyn’s job. Davis ends by saying, although the UK is leaving the EU, it is not leaving Europe, and that certainly applies to wine. He had a glass of French red last night, he says.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Theresa May has again refused to resolve the question of whether the UK government will eventually agree to allow a Scottish independence referendum, once the Brexit process is complete.

The prime minister was asked four times by Andrew Neil in her BBC1 interview on Brexit on Wednesday night whether she would accept it and four times May refused to say. She did imply the answer was no, or at least until it was unavoidable.

Neil asked twice whether she was opposed to it in principle, and May indicated the Tories were resisting it because they believe Nicola Sturgeon’s demands for a referendum are less popular than the Scottish National party would like to admit.

In the final question, Neil asked: “Do you rule it out in principle?” May replied: “I think it’s important that we recognise, I think, Andrew, the question isn’t whether there could be a second independence referendum, it’s whether there should be.”
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Webster
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(The Guardian) On the Today programme this morning, Sylvie Bermann, the French ambassador to the UK, said there could be no “trade-off” between trade and security in the Brexit talks. She said: We are all facing the same security challenges and we all need security. So it can’t be a trade-off between an FTA, an economic agreement, and security.

Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s lead Brexit negotiator, made the same point on Good Morning Britain.

What I think is not possible is to say to the European Union ‘well look we will only cooperate on security if you give us a good trade deal or a good economic package’, that is not done. The security of the citizens is so important, the fight against terrorism is so crucial, that you cannot negotiate with something else.

What we propose is to make an association agreement between the UK and the EU with two consistent pillars, one on security, the fight against terrorism, external and internal; and at the other hand a good trade deal, a fair trade deal, where it is clear, naturally, that outside the European Union, you can never have a status that is [as favourable as EU membership].
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Webster
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--Love this from @paulwaugh: "David Davis is the Martin McGuinness of the Brexit movement" (Brexit Watch, 30 march 2017)
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