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British PM Calls Snap Election For June 2017
Topic Started: Apr 18 2017, 10:22 AM (152 Views)
Webster
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.....apparently, we're headed to election time in the U.K. in about 6-7 weeks or so.....

(The Guardian) Theresa May to make statement in Downing Street at 11.15
--The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has tweeted (the following)....

(1) PM making a statement in Downing Street at 1115 - only normally used for most serious moments
(2) Watch election rumour mill go crazy.... has May decided to go for it?
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Webster
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--@theresa_may making statement in Downing St at 11.15. Syria? NK? Or just poss that thing I always thought she would do, ie election? Flip! (Robert Peston, ITV - 17 April 2017)
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Webster
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--Pound (Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg News - 17 April 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Will May call an early election? - Five reason why she might, and 5 reasons why she might not
--The surprise announcement that Theresa May is going to make a statement in Downing Street this morning has renewed speculation that she will call an early election. Here are some reasons why she might - and why she might not?

Five reasons why she might call an early election
1 - The polls, obviously.
2 - If May is going to call a surprise election, during the Brexit negotiations, now would be a good time to do it.
3 - Labour has said it would vote for an early election, meaning that May would have the two-thirds majority needed to bypass the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.
4 - The Crown Prosecution Service is due to make a decision quite soon about whether to charge Tories in relation to alleged over-spending at the general election in South Thanet and in other constituencies.
5 - May would have shown that she has learnt the lesson from Gordon Brown’s “election that never was” in 2007.

And five reasons why she might not.

1 - Downing Street has firmly ruled out an early election quite recently. It is not obvious what reason May would be able to give to justify such an abrupt U-turn.
2 - May has until now prided herself on being straightforward and being a prime minister who is just “getting on with the job”.
3 - There is no evidence that the public want an early election. In fact, having had the referendum last year, people may be suffering from voting fatigue. And there is some evidence that voters punish politicians who haul them to the polls unnecessarily.
4 - There are already important elections planned for 4 May. It is too late to hold a general election then, and so a general election campaign would have to start after then. Voters would end up with two elections within two months.
5 - A Conservative election victory now, with a large majority, would be a major boost to the SNP’s argument that Scotland needs to vote for independence to protect itself from permanent Tory rule.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Buckingham Palace has confirmed that the Queen is currently resident at Windsor Castle, (the Guardian's) Matthew Taylor reports.

Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act that was a consideration, because the prime minister had to see the Queen to call an election. Now that is no longer necessary, although David Cameron did call a courtesy call on the Queen before the 2015 election anyway. But, if there is going to be an election, May would have to have a vote in the Commons first to over-rule the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

Downing Street have had almost an hour now to discourage journalists from speculating about an early election. They are not doing that, which increases the chances that it will be an election announcement.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) The City of London is gripped with excitement over Theresa May’s statement. The pound took an immediate dip, from $1.26 to $1.253, as traders brace for fresh political drama in Westminster.

The selloff was triggered by talk of a snap general election, as Neil Wilson of ETX Capital explains: “The pound plunged like a stone on news that Prime Minister Theresa May is about to make a major announcement outside Number 10 at 11:15 (BST).

The rumour mill says it’s going to be a snap election – that would throw up a huge cluster grenade of political risk, uncertainty and potential volatility in the markets. At the extreme this could even spark a reversal in the entire Brexit process.

May would have to get parliament to agree to this but we know most MPs are positively brimming to head back to the polls to seek fresh mandates in the wake of the Brexit vote. The Tories have a thumping majority in the polls at the moment so the PM may just be gambling on significantly boosting her rather slender majority in Parliament.

It’s an old cliche that markets hate uncertainty (also untrue, as some investors thrive on it). But right now, all the excitement in Downing Street is certainly weighing on the pound.
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Webster
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--Current rumours on PM announcement:

1. Snap Election
2. PM to resign on health Grounds
3. No one has a clue (Josh Raymond, Brokerage Director XTE - 17 April 2017)
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Webster
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...differing opinions on the PM's messages, perhaps?

--No black prime ministerial seal on May's lectern. Usually a signal that PM is making a party political statement... (Henry Zeffman, The Times of London - 17 April 2017)

--Fiona Hill texts @adamboultonSKY to say she will be making a formal complaint to Sky News over speculation about PM's health (Guido Fawkes, 17 April 2017)
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Webster
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--Hearing May will announce General Election for June 8th - one source not confirmed (Laura Kuenssberg, BBC News - 17 April 2017)

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--The last time the lectern was used without a Govt insignia was when Cameron called the General election on 30 March 2015 (Jack Evans, BBC News - 17 April 2017)
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Webster
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(The Guardian) This is from the official notes to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. It confirms that Theresa May does not need to repeal the Act to hold an early election. All she would need would be a vote with a two-thirds majority in the Commons.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 provides for fixed days for polls for parliamentary general elections. The polling day for elections will ordinarily be the first Thursday in May every five years. The first such polling day will be on 7 May 2015. The Prime Minister will be able to defer, by statutory instrument, the polling day for such parliamentary general elections to a day not more than two months later than the scheduled polling day.

The Act also makes provision to enable the holding of early parliamentary general elections. The trigger for such general elections would be either a vote of no confidence in the Government, following which the House of Commons did not pass a motion of confidence in a Government within 14 days, or a vote by at least two-thirds of all MPs in favour of an early election.

-Read more: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/notes
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Theresa May announces general election on 8 June
--Theresa May is speaking now. May announces general election on 8 June.

May is explaining her decision now.

She says when she became prime minister the country needed stability.

She has delivered that, she says.

And she has delivered on the referendum result. Britain is leaving the EU and there can be no turning back.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) May says she needs an election now because other parties are opposed to the government’s Brexit plans
--May says the government has a plan for Brexit that will allow the UK to regain control of its laws and borders. This is the right approach. But the other parties oppose it, she says.

There should be unity in Westminster, she says. But there is not, she says.

Labour has threatened to vote against the final deal. The Lib Dems want to grind parliamentary business to a standstill. The SNP opposes what the government is doing. And peers have said they will oppose the government all the way.

She says she is not prepared to allow her opponents to jeopardise the Brexit negotiations.

If there is not an election now, game-playing will continue.

And she says the Brexit talks will conclude as election speculation is intensifying.

May says she needs an election now because other parties are opposed to the government’s Brexit plans.
May says she has only recently come to this conclusion.

May says she will move a motion in the Commons tomorrow proposing an election on 8 June.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) She challenges the opposition parties to accept an early election. Then let the people decide. And that election will be allow about leadership, she says.

May says it is with reluctance that she called an election. But it is with determination that she will fight it.

Let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability, she says.

She says she will give the country the strong leadership it needs.
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Webster
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(The Guardian) Here are some of the things Theresa May has said in the past about ruling out an early election.

Just before she assumed the role of prime minister she said there would be no early election under her leadership. On 30 June, in the speech that launched her bid, she explicitly ruled it out.

Then in her first major interview after taking office, she told the Andrew Marr Show last September that the UK needed a period of stability after the shock Brexit vote.

She said: “I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020.”

In her Christmas message in 2016, May also strongly hinted that an early election was not on the agenda by calling for unity.

She said: “Of course, the referendum laid bare some further divisions in our country – between those who are prospering, and those who are not … those for whom our country works well, and those for whom it does not.

“As the fantastic MP Jo Cox, who was so tragically taken from us last year, put it: ‘We are far more united and have far more in common than that which divides us.’”

As recently as last month Downing Street said that an early election was “not going to happen”.
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Webster
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--Lines to take for Tory MPs (Guido Fawkes, 17 April 2017)
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