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| Euro Hits 3-Week High As French Election Looms | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Apr 20 2017, 08:43 AM (36 Views) | |
| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 08:43 AM Post #1 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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....as if the Euro didn't have enough to worry about, there's this business of France's Presidential Election for it to deal with.... (The Guardian) Political issues continue to occupy the market’s attention today. The first round of the French presidential election is just three days away, so investors are watching closely to see which candidates make it through to the run-off two weeks later. The race looks rather tight, raising concerns that the eurozone could be dragged into another crisis if the more mainstream candidates stumble. Neil Wilson of ETX Capital explains: Volatility in the euro has peaked at its highest since before the June referendum as markets weigh the prospects of either Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon – or both - making the second round. The killer scenario for the euro would be if both candidates make the May 7th runoff as it would raise the very real possibility of France exiting the euro. Current polling gives the nod to Macron and Le Pen, with Macron eventually winning. But with four candidates polling around 20% there is every reason for caution. We’re looking at contingency plans in the event of a Le Pen-Melenchon runoff as this would spark a big selloff in the euro and French government bonds, as well as bank stocks. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 08:49 AM Post #2 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) Euro hits three-week high --The euro has hit its highest level since the end of March this morning. The single currency gained 0.3% against the US dollar to $1.074, after a new opinion poll suggested centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron will win the French election. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 08:52 AM Post #3 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --Il ya de nouveau UNE VRAI DYNAMIQUE MACRON "BERCY" Sondage HARRIS AUJOURD'HUI comme BVA hier et assurément ODOXA demain Mais IFOP a du MAL (ENG - There is again a REAL DYNAMIC MACRON "BERCY" HARRIS TODAY TODAY as BVA yesterday and assuredly ODOXA tomorrow But IFOP has some MAL) (Nicolas, 20 April 2017) --#FRANCE'S MACRON TO BEAT LE PEN IN 2ND-ROUND 66% VS 34%: HARRIS - BBG (Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist & Strategist at Market Securities - 20 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 08:53 AM Post #4 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Tactical voting will probaly keep Marine Le Pen out of the Élysée Palace, argues Kit Nicholl, country risk analyst at IHS Global Insight: In a scenario where Le Pen is pitted against Fillon, or more likely, Macron, voters from the moderate left and right are likely to unite in a so-called “Republican front”, voting tactically to keep the FN out of power. A Le Pen victory is therefore unlikely but still remains possible, particularly as abstention rates will also play a big role. Furthermore, the occurrence of a major terrorist attack, widespread urban riots, or the disclosure of damning information aimed at discrediting Macron would all have the effect of significantly increasing the FN’s share of the vote. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:01 AM Post #5 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --As Sunday's 1st round of French election nears, one measure of euro volatility is well on track for its biggest weekly jump on record (Jamie McGreevers, Reuters - 20 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:07 AM Post #6 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) Marine Le Pen’s best hope of victory would come in a run-off against former prime minister Francois Fillon, argues Antonio Barroso of Teneo Intelligence. Barroso believes that many centrist and left-leaning voters might find this choice underwhelming, and not participate in such a second round scenario. He writes: The worst-case scenario in terms of a potential Le Pen victory is a runoff between Fillon and the leader of the National Front. This is especially the case considering the former PM’s recent “rightist turn” after he suggested he would include members of an ultra-catholic organization in his administration. Combined with his frequent attacks on the judiciary, this will only make it more difficult for Fillon to credibly moderate his positions in between rounds. The risk is that center-left voters decide to stay at home on 7 May, allowing Le Pen to be elected by voter neglect rather than by voter endorsement. Barroso also agrees that Macron would be a much tougher opponent for Le Pen. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:08 AM Post #7 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --Investors more sanguine on Brexit than at any point since Sept when May first adopted hard Brexit stance. Investors now buying GBP and gilts (Jamie McGreever, Reuters - 20 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:10 AM Post #8 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) European stock markets will probably fall sharply if the French election delivers a shock result. Marketwatch’s Sara Sjölin explains: And here are the two-way risks: A win for either Le Pen or Melenchon would spark a selloff in risk assets and drive French and European equities down 5%-10% by the end of June, Citi said. However, if Macron or Fillon secures the presidency, stocks in Europe could see a 10%-20% rally before the end of the year, they said. -Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-frances-hotly-contested-election-could-spark-market-turmoil-2017-04-19 |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:11 AM Post #9 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --"Investors (and French voters) are getting worried about a ‘nightmare’ scenario" - French election is this Sunday (Sara Sjolin, CBS Marketwatch - 20 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:22 AM Post #10 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) The euro is climbing higher, now up 0.5% to a new three-week high of $1.077. That’s partly due to general dollar weakness, as well as that French opinion poll suggesting a win for Emmanuel Macron. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:24 AM Post #11 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) French stock market is rallying --Paris’s stock market is on track for its best day since the start of March. The CAC 40 has jumped by 1% today, outperforming the rest of Europe, as investors react to the latest forecasts of a Macron victory. Financial stocks are leading the rally, with BNP Paribas jumping 2.6% and Société Générale gaining 1.9%. Technology and consumer-focused stocks are also up. The FTSE 100 is lagging behind, though, partly due to the rise in the pound this morning. ![]() --Joshua Mahony, Market Analyst at IG, explains: The FTSE is weakening once more this morning, as the pound continues its ascent in the wake of Theresa May’s decision to call a snap election in just seven weeks. To many the appreciation of the pound seems counter-intuitive, yet the prospect of a strengthened Tory majority means there is hope that this election could be good for the UK in Brexit negotiations. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:25 AM Post #12 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) The “nightmare scenario” for global financial markets is second-round duel between the equally sharp-tongued Le Pen and Melenchon, says Associated Press’s John Leicester. Victory for either could, in the wake of the Brexit vote, possibly deliver a knockout punch to the EU ambition of ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe because both want to tear up agreements that bind together the 28 EU states. Melenchon says “the Europe of our dreams is dead.” He proposes “disobeying treaties from the moment we take power” and negotiating new EU rules followed by a referendum on whether France should leave the bloc it helped found. “We either change the EU or quit it,” Melenchon’s manifesto says. The “totalitarian” EU has also long been one of Le Pen’s pet hates and constant target for her virulent nationalist discourse. She wants an in-out referendum on France’s EU membership, a new French franc to replace the common euro currency, and re-imposing French borders to staunch what she describes as out-of-control immigration. Like her father, National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2002, she hopes for an electoral coup by making the runoff. But pollsters suggest that, like him, she would likely lose on May 7 to any of the other top three opponents. |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:26 AM Post #13 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) The candidates to become France’s next president have been campaigning for months, including a major TV debate earlier this month. But many voters are still uncertain of who they’ll vote for, and their choices could decide the election. Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, says: The French election looks very close. Although Macron and Le Pen are expected to make it to the second round, all four candidates are close and 30% of voters are said to be still undecided as ahead of Sunday’s vote. Two interesting weeks ahead in France.” Pollsters have reported that the number of uncommitted French voters is at unprecedented level. This chart (above), from Teneo Intelligence, shows how last minute changes of heart could boost, or undermine, the leading candidates.... |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:29 AM Post #14 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) One of the more surprising elements of the French election is Francois Fillon’s recent revival. After unexpectedly winning the Republican nomination, Fillon’s campaign was badly hurt by allegations that his wife had been paid for work she’d not done. The Penelope Affair, followed by questions over gifts and consultancy fees, seemed likely to sink Fillon’s chances, and his plans for Thatcherite free market reforms. But instead, he’s been regaining ground - and could yet claim a top-two finish on Sunday. If that happens, Fillon can thank his core support, and his move towards increasingly populist, right-wing policies. (The Guardian's) Jon Henley explains: Born in the traditionally Catholic Sarthe department west of Paris, Fillon is the son of a history professor mother and solicitor father. With Penelope, whom he met in Le Mans when she was a student on a year abroad, he has raised five children in a 12th-century chateau. He has abstained or voted against laws on equality between men and women and same-sex marriage and is personally opposed to abortion, though he would not try to repeal the 1975 law that legalised it in France. A year after he was first elected as France’s youngest MP, he opposed the 1982 law that effectively legalised homosexuality. A centre-right gay rights group, GayLib, has described his vision of French society as “clearly hostile to LGBT people”. Fillon has pledged to defend France’s “Christian values”. He would ban medically assisted procreation and use of sperm donors for single women and same-sex couples, and reverse some gay adoption rights. He has also promised to set annual quotas on immigration, restrict foreigners’ rights to French nationality, set the age of criminal responsibility at 16, build 16,000 new prison cells and, in foreign policy, develop more positive ties with Russia. The closing days of the campaign have seen Fillon more openly courting a hard-right vote, evoking France’s sovereignty and identity and promising at his Lille rally to crack down hard on immigration and pursue a zero-tolerance policy on radical Islam. --Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/20/francois-fillon-moves-back-into-contention-in-french-presidential-race |
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| Webster | Apr 20 2017, 09:29 AM Post #15 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Fillon’s late revival in the polls could increase the chances that Marine Le Pen fails to win a place in the final run-off. That could trigger a surge in the euro and in share prices, believes Kathleen Brooks of City Index. She says a Macron-Fillon playoff would be the most ‘market-friendly’ option. A win for Macron with Fillon in second place would restore faith in centrist politics, which has been eroded ever since last year’s Brexit vote in the UK and Trump’s triumph in the US Presidential election. The eradication of the Far Left and the Far Right candidates in the first round would likely see a collective sigh of relief that it is politics as usual in France. This combination for the second round could unleash a surge in the Cac, a sharp drop in French bond yields and a decent move higher in EUR/USD back towards 1.10, we could also see EUR/GBP recover back towards 0.8570 – a cluster of key resistance levels. Overall, there is a chance that the market has been wrong-footed once again by the polls, and Le Pen is not guaranteed a spot in the second round. If we are correct, then the political premium that has kept the euro range bound in recent months could evaporate, allowing the single currency to stage a decent rally on the back of a victory for the two moderate, pro EU candidates on Sunday night. |
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