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2017 French Presidential Election Thread - Round 1
Topic Started: Apr 22 2017, 12:47 AM (149 Views)
Webster
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In June 2016, British voters pulled the initial trigger for their now-certain departure from the EU; in November, U.S. voters stunned the electoral world by electing Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States.......now French voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide who should be their next president....
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Webster
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2017 French Presidential Candidates
--Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (Debout la France - OLF)
--Marine Le Pen (National Front - FN)
--Emmanuel Macron (En Marche! - EM)
--Benoit Hamon (Socialist Party - PS)
--Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouviere - LO)
--Phillippe Poutou (New Anti-Captialist Party - NPA)
--Jacques Cheminade (Solidarity & Progress - SP)
--Jean Lassalle (Resistons! - R)
--Jean-Luc Melanchon (Unsubmissive France - FI)
--François Asselineau (Popular Republican Union - UPR)
--Francois Fillon (The Republicans - (LR)

--Rules: If no candidate receives 50% of the vote on April 23rd, the top-2 vote-getters will face off on May 7th in a runoff election
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Webster
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The Guardian: Trump Wades Into French Election, Declares Le Pen "Strongest Candidate"

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Donald Trump has offered a tacit endorsement of Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, describing the far-right leader as the “strongest” candidate in the first-round vote this Sunday.

The US president told the Associated Press that although he was not “explicitly endorsing” the leader of the Front National, she was the “strongest on borders, and she’s the strongest on what’s been going on in France.” “Whoever is the toughest on radical Islamic terrorism, and whoever is the toughest at the borders, will do well in the election,” he said.

Typically, US presidents avoid speculation on overseas elections. But Trump suggested his opinion was no different from any other: “Everybody is making predictions on who is going to win. I’m no different than you.”

The president also said that Le Pen’s candidacy would be boosted after the fatal shooting of police officer in central Paris, which was claimed by Islamic State less than 72 hours ahead of the polls.

Earlier on Friday, Trump had tweeted about the attack’s potential impact on the vote, writing: “Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!”

Le Pen is one of eleven candidates in a tight race. The top two candidates will advance to a runoff on 7 May. She is currently neck-and-neck in polling for the first-round vote with the outsider centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, closely followed by the rightwing François Fillon.

Le Pen has long praised Trump and told CNN in a November interview that his election was an inspiration to her political efforts in France. “Donald Trump has made possible what was presented as completely impossible,” said the French politician. “So it’s a sign of hope for those who cannot bear wild globalization. They cannot bear the political life led by the elites.”

Le Pen visited Trump Tower in January although she did not meet with the then-president-elect.

However, two strongly pro-Trump Republican members of Congress – Steve King of Iowa and Dana Rohrabacher of California – met with Le Pen in France in February. She had also previously met with King in October 2016 .

Her party, the National Front, has long been of the leading far-right political organizations in Europe and stridently anti-Muslim and xenophobic. However, under Le Pen’s leadership, the party has tried to make itself slightly more palatable to voters. In 2015, it expelled Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s leader for three decades and father of Marine Le Pen for Holocaust denial.

Le Pen also has close ties to Russia. The National Front financed itself with a loan from a Russian bank and Le Pen has praised Vladimir Putin and has falsely claimed that Russia did not invade Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula it has occupied since 2014.

Trump is not the only American politician to weigh in on the presidential election. On Thursday, Macron spoke to former president Barack Obama in a phone call which his campaign publicized.

An Obama spokesman later said that the call was not intended as an explicit endorsement of Macron.
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Webster
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The Guardian: French elections 2017 - disintegrating left-right divide sets stage for political upheaval

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French voters g o to the polls on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that to the very end has brought little consensus or comfort and only one certainty: the result will be a political upheaval, whoever wins.

Even as they walk into their bureau de vote, many will still be undecided, faced with paper slips for an unprecedented 11 candidates, only four of them thought to be serious contenders for the Elysée palace. There is a nail-biting sense that anything could happen.

Do they vote for or against? Do they choose a candidate who represents their politics or one who, opinion polls suggest, is most likely to defeat the woman whose presence as one of two candidates in the second-round runoff in a fortnight seems a given, but whose name still provokes a frisson of fear for many: the far-right Front National leader Marine Le Pen, with her anti-Europe, anti-immigration, “French-first” programme?

As election day has approached, and with the added complication of the terrorist threat following the shooting of a police officer on the Champs-Elysées in Paris, the dilemma has caused particular anguish for France’s mainstream leftwing voters, whose candidate is trailing in fifth place. There are no certainties, but barring all other candidates “dropping from a nasty virus”, as one political analyst put it, Benoît Hamon is facing a crushing defeat in the first round, ending his leadership dreams and putting the future of the country’s Socialist party (PS) in question.

In a decline that mirrors that of Britain’s Labour party, the PS is facing years in a political desert, if it survives. If Hamon finishes last among the leading candidates, as polls predict, the party’s only hope of salvaging a thread of power will lie in winning enough parliamentary seats in the legislative elections that follow to form an influential group in the national assembly. Even then it will most likely be part of a coalition rather than a fully functioning opposition.

Even worse, and even more unthinkable, if leftwing voters turn en masse to Jean-Luc Mélenchon as their best hope of a place in the second round against the frontrunners – independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, Le Pen or the conservative François Fillon – and Hamon polls less than 5%, none of Hamon’s campaign expenses will be reimbursed, bankrupting the PS. “Under 5% and the situation is really catastrophic,” Marc-Olivier Padis, of the Paris-based thinktank Terra Nova, told the Observer. “And it’s possible. We are hearing many socialists wondering if they should vote Mélenchon or Macron. The only thing that can save the party in this election is if enough socialists vote for Hamon out of loyalty.”
-Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/22/france-presidential-election-le-pen-macron-socialists
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CNN: France Votes In Closely-Contested Election
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(CNN)French voters go to the polls Sunday after a presidential election campaign that was notable for its volatility and overshadowed in its final days by a terror attack on police in Paris.

While there are 11 names on the ballot, only four leading contenders are seen as having a realistic prospect of making it through to the second round of voting. They are far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, scandal-hit conservative François Fillon, centrist newcomer Emmanuel Macron and far-left wildcard Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The top two in Sunday's vote will face off on May 7 for the second and final round of voting.

Latest polls suggest the results are too close to call, meaning France could end up with a choice between candidates from the far-left and far-right, or a far-right stalwart facing off against a political novice. With such a fractured field, no one is expected to win a majority in Sunday's first round.

Benoit Hamon is the mainstream left-wing Socialist Party nominee but polls suggest he has struggled to gain traction. Fellow socialist President François Hollande is so unpopular he decided not to stand for a second term.
-Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/23/europe/french-presidential-election-vote/index.html?adkey=bn
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(Daily Telegraph) Marine Le Pen leading the race as polls open
--Rory Mulholland reports from Paris: Polls have opened in the first round of France’s most unpredictable and high-stakes presidential election in decades, with far-Right leader Marine Le Pen and the maverick centrist Emmanuel Macron leading the field. A Le Pen victory could lead to the collapse of the European Union, experts warn, but after the victory of Donald Trump in the US and the Brexit vote in Britain most agree that there is no safe bet in the French race.

Unprecedented security measures were in place to keep voters safe as they cast their ballots, with 50,000 police officers and 7,000 soldiers deployed across the country.

Voting began just three days after a French jihadist shot dead a policeman on the Champs Elysées in Paris, fuelling pre-election jitters and pushing security and terror back to the top of the political agenda.
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(BBC News) Summary of Events - 9:20am US EDT/3:20 pm France)
--Voter turnout in the first round of an election that will determine who will become France's next president is said to be on course for 80%
--Polling stations have been busy across France - and elsewhere - since opening in the country at 08:00 local time (06:00 GMT)
--Security has been stepped up following the killing of a police officer in Paris on Thursday, with about 50,000 police and several thousand armed soldiers deployed across France
--The leading candidates - including the Front National leader Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon - have cast their votes.
--There have been scuffles in Hénin-Beaumont, where two topless women in Le Pen face masks chanted mockingly "Marine, President"
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(BBC News) Sisters are voting too
--There were no scuffles or shenanigans at this polling station in Solesmes, north-western France, where Benedictine sisters of St Cecilia's Abbey formed an orderly line to take turns in casting their ballots.
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(Daily Telegraph) Who will win in France's bellwether town that always backs the winning president?
--Paris correspondent Henry Samuel visited Donzy this week to find out which way the wind was blowing: As the countdown commences to France's most unpredictable presidential election in modern times, a small town in deepest Burgundy has become the focus of intense national scrutiny because it always reflects the national vote.

Donzy, population 1660, is France's electoral equivalent of Basildon, seen as Britain's ultimate political bellwether, having voted for the winning party at each general election since it became a constituency in 1974.

Surrounded by farms producing goat's cheese and foie gras, the medieval town is in many ways textbook "France profonde", boasting a church, two doctors, a butcher, two bakers, three cafes, three schools and a retirement home. There are two factories making drinking straws and umbrellas on the outskirts and a football pitch.

Since 1981, Donzy has reflected the French vote in seven presidential elections with sometimes pinpoint accuracy.

-Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/dispatch-marine-le-pen-rides-high-frances-bellwether-town-always/
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(Daily Telegraph) Shooting in western France ‘not terror related’, as false alerts see several polling stations evacuated
--From David Chazan in Paris: A man was injured by gunfire in Rouen, western France, as million of French voters cast their ballots in the presidential election, three days after the murder of a policeman in Paris.

Local media reported that the man was injured in the legs and rushed to hospital after “at least two shots” were fired in the city centre. The shooter was reported to be on the run. Initial reports suggested that the incident was not terror-related but arose from a dispute between two people who knew each other.

Earlier security scares led to the evacuation of several polling stations around the country but all turned out to be false alerts.

Voting was briefly suspended at two polling stations in the eastern town of Besançon after a car was driven very slowly towards one of them, and then abandoned with its engine running. A rifle was found inside, but Le Parisien newspaper reported that it was not terror-related but a “common law case”.

In Saint-Omer, northern France, two polling stations were evacuated and a security cordon was set up after a suspicious car was spotted, the Voix du Nord newspaper reported. Bomb disposal experts checked the car and gave the all-clear.

In Haguenau, eastern France, a cool box was found with electrical wires protruding from it about 60 metres from a polling station. Water was sprayed on it and it was found to be empty.

In Paris, a polling station in the 20th arrondissement was briefly closed after a car considered suspicious was parked nearby. It was checked and voting resumed after about 20 minutes.

Turnout at noon was 28.54 per cent, a slight increase from the first round of the previous presidential election in 2012.

About 55,000 police officers are guarding polling stations after a Paris policeman was shot dead on the Champs-Elysées on Thursday in an attack claimed by the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (Isil) group.
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(Daily Telegraph) Les Chiens join in the fun!
--There's not many things we love more at the Telegraph than pictures of dogs at polling stations. Here are some of our favourite democratic hounds today...

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A woman carries her dog as she cast her vote at a polling booth in Lyon

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A dog waits outsode a polling booth as his owner prepares to cast his ballot in Caen, northwestern France

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A dog waits as its owner participates in the first round of 2017 French presidential election in Nice
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(Daily Telegraph) Meanwhile in London... Huge queues to vote
--From London to Berlin, Washington to Tel Aviv, French voters lined up at polling stations abroad to cast their ballots. Around 1.3 million French people abroad are registered to vote - representing around two percent of the total electorate.

In London - often called the sixth biggest French city - hundreds of people queued up outside the two polling stations well before they opened on Sunday, with some waiting up to two hours to vote.

"In London, we're expecting perhaps 50,000 voters, so it's going to be a busy day," said Edouard De Guitaut, in charge of a polling station at a French school in London's upmarket South Kensington.

"I have dual nationality, so I voted against Brexit. I think it's really important to vote everywhere, because I'm affected everywhere," said student Elise Lauriot Prevost.

The face of one candidate was absent from posters displayed outside the voting booths abroad - Le Pen's National Front (FN) did not deliver them in time, according to the French foreign ministry.
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(Daily Telegraph) Breakdown of Scenarios
-Read more: http://telegraph.digidip.net/visit?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thecrosstab.com%2F2017%2F02%2F14%2Ffrance-2017-methodology%2F&ppref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2F
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(Daily Telegraph) What's At Stake
--Why does the French election matter? If you're coming into to this without too much background, which is totally understandable given Britain's facing it's own election in a matter of weeks, here's just a few reasons why the French election is worth paying attention to:

Risk of 'Frexit'
Most of the 11 candidates are campaigning against the European Union, blamed for myriad woes. Two with a chance at the presidency, far-right Marine Le Pen and far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon, could seek to pull France out of the union and its shared euro currency altogether.

A French exit of either would be far more far-reaching than Britain's - it could spell death for the EU, the euro and the whole idea of European unity borne from the blood of World War II. France is a founding member of the EU, and its main driver along with former rival Germany.

Financial markets are already jittery over a possible Frexit, fearing controls on money transfers, capital flight, a plague of defaults and lawsuits on bonds and contracts. Ms Le Pen's team downplays apocalyptic scenarios, arguing that the euro is headed for a breakup eventually anyway.

Ms Le Pen and Mr Melenchon also blame free trade pacts for killing French jobs and want to renegotiate them, which would cause a financial tangle for the rest of the EU and France's trade partners.

Trump and populism
If Ms Le Pen or Mr Melenchon reach the second round, it will be seen as a clear victory for the populist wave reflected by the votes for Donald Trump and Brexit. Many French workers who have lost out because of globalisation are similarly fed up with establishment parties and especially attracted by promises of ditching the status quo.

Alternatively, if neither candidate makes it past Sunday's first round into the May 7 runoff, that's a clear message that populist nationalism is receding.

Centrist Emmanuel Macron and conservative Francois Fillon are committed to European unity and would reform labor rules but not make any drastic moves. Mr Macron has framed himself as a bulwark against Trump's protectionism.

Assad's Syria and Putin's Russia
A nuclear power with a seat on the UN Security Council and tens of thousands of troops around the world, France is a key US ally in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (Isil) group and major diplomatic player.

Mr Macron would likely keep up the French operations against extremists in Iraq and Syria and Africa's Sahel region - and keep up pressure on Russia over Ukraine and its actions to bolster Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The other three front-runners, on the other hand, had supported restoring dialogue with Assad to find a political solution for Syria. Ms Le Pen firmly backs Assad and distanced herself from Trump over recent US airstrikes targeting Assad's regime.

Ms Le Pen also met recently with President Vladimir Putin and would push for lifting sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.

Mr Fillon too has been friendly with Mr Putin in the past, but has taken a harder stance lately - notably since chemical weapon attack blamed on Assad's forces.
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(Daily Telegraph) Le Pen's poster faux pas
--Front National leader Marine Le Pen's party made a faux pas abroad by failing to deliver posters in time for them to appear outside polling stations, the French foreign ministry has said.

"The posters for the candidate Marine Le Pen were not provided so the corresponding poster board is empty," the ministry said. "The posters are printed by the candidates themselves and it is up to them to hand them in to the electoral commission before the deadline [of 10 April]."

France has around 1.3 voters registered voters abroad - around 2 per cent of the total electorate.
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