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| Stock Markets Rally In Wake Of Sunday's French Presidential Voting | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Apr 24 2017, 10:17 AM (74 Views) | |
| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 10:17 AM Post #1 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) French stock market surges --The French stock market has surged this morning, as investors welcome last night’s election results, writes my colleague Graeme Wearden. The CAC 40, which contains the largest French companies, jumped by 4% at the start of trading to its highest level since April 2015. Bank shares are leading the rally, as fears of another eurozone crisis abate. The euro, which hit a five-month high last night, is up around 1% this morning at $1.086. Investors are relieved that Emmanuel Macron has qualified for the run-off on May 7th, where he is widely expected to win. John Wyn-Evans, head of investment strategy at Investec Wealth & Investment, says Macron vs Le Pen was the market’s “preferred outcome”. “Macron’s policies cleverly appeal to both sides of the political spectrum, and they are succinctly described by the Financial Times as a “business-friendly agenda coupled with Nordic-style welfarism”, encompassing, for example, labour market deregulation, lower corporation tax, and no social security contributions for those on the minimum wage,” Wyn-Evans explains. |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:38 AM Post #16 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:39 AM Post #17 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) 11:089am France - CAC 40 Hits Nine-Yr High --Newsflash! The French stock market has now hit its highest level in nine years as the election relief rally gathers pace. The CAC 40 has burst through its April 2015 high, and is now up 4.5% to levels last seen in 2008, before the world economy entered its deepest crisis in decades. Industrial stocks, and financial companies, are in hot demand thanks to optimism that France is unlikely to elect a eurosceptic president. Investors are relieved that far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon didn’t join Marine Le Pen in the second-round. Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi Asset at Royal London Asset Management, explains: “The main worry for investors and traders watching the French election was that voters would be presented with a choice between anti-EU candidates on the left and right in the second round. With roughly 55% backing pro-EU candidates over the weekend and the polls clearly pointing to a Macron victory in the run off with Le Pen, the euro rallied strongly. “In stocks and bonds, markets were also taking the good news early as French bond yields dropped and stock markets rallied across the board. |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:40 AM Post #18 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --France's CAC index at 9+ year high, Germany's Dax at record high...#Frenchelections (Gemma Felicity Acton, CNBC - 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:41 AM Post #19 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) Mihir Kapadia, CEO and Founder of Sun Global Investments, says traders are expecting a resounding win for Macron on May 7th: “The first round of the French Presidential election, as expected has led to second round contest between Macron and Le Pen. However, the fact that Macron currently leads over Le Pen does effectively remove the prospect of a victory for Marine Le Pen and her anti EU agenda. Polls see Macron beating Le Pen by a decisive 60%-40%. Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, agrees that Macron looks like a shoe-in: For the first time in six decades, both mainstream parties were eliminated in the first round, highlighting a sentiment of change that is sweeping across the political landscape of advanced economies. Could Macron – a centrist political newcomer – be to France what Trudeau is to Canada. Sunday’s result is consistent with recent polls and our base case expectations. Crucially for investors, the presence of centrist candidate Macron in the second and final round significantly increases the probability of a pro-EU French president; based on the polls we assign an 80% to 85% probability of Macron winning, and the backing of François Fillon and Benoît Hamon would further strengthen his case. |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:42 AM Post #20 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --#Macron? More like 'mais non!' for dismayed gold bulls. Precious metal tumbles 1%+, wiping out Friday's gains. (CBS Marketwatch, 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:44 AM Post #21 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() ---The green on the scoreboard today is so bright, it almost makes your eyes hurt (Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg TV - 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:45 AM Post #22 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Rating agency Moody’s has just commented on the French presidential election: “Moody’s will assess any credit implications associated with the presidential election once the outcome is known. Fiscal and economic policies are likely to be key rating drivers under the next French presidency given the country’s debt and growth challenges.” |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 11:50 AM Post #23 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(7:44am US) --A couple of hours to go until the US markets open, but the overnight Dow currently suggesting a start of around +220 at 20,767. (David Jones, BBC Radio 5 Live - 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:02 PM Post #24 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Hartwig Kos, vice-CIO and co-head of multi-asset at SYZ Asset Management says the possibility of Marine Le Pen becoming French president appears to have subsided. That’s because opinion polling has shown Macron would probably secure a larger majority over the National Front leader than, for example, the Republican candidate Francois Fillon (who came third last night). But despite that, Kos is being a little cautious -- after all , shock results are by their very nature hard to spot. As he puts it: “Macron currently leads the opinion polls for the second round by almost 30% – while Le Pen scored poorly in areas such as Paris, at below 5% in the first round. This clearly improved sentiment and many investors are now more willing to bet on a positive election outcome. We have also started to reposition our portfolios into a more pro-risk stance, recognising that political risks have moved more to the tail than previously expected. Despite this, we have kept some of our hedges intact, as the main characteristic of a tail event is the fact that it is unexpected.” |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:03 PM Post #25 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() (The Guardian) European markets at 2:45pm France time |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:04 PM Post #26 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --That sigh you hear is one of relief by stock investors after #Frenchelections2017 (Mark Barton, Bloomberg TV - 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:05 PM Post #27 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Market euphoria following Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election may not last, says Forex.com technical analyst Fawad Razaqzada: The euro and stock markets have absolutely surged higher on the back of news Emmanuel Macron secured almost 24% of Sunday’s first-round vote, suggesting he will probably beat Marine Le Pen in a run-off for the French presidency. The threat that a Eurosceptic leader will preside over France has therefore diminished sharply. However, the prospects of an unlikely victory for Le Pen remains and that may dampen the enthusiasm expressed by investors today. What’s more, there is always the possibility that the markets may have overreacted to the news. Thus, there is a risk that both the euro and European stock markets may ease back in the days to come, even if the German Dax index has climbed to a new record high level. |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:06 PM Post #28 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) Wall Street Opens Up - 9:34am US EDT --US markets have followed the global surge in the wake of the French election first round vote. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 200 points or just over 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened up 1.1% at a new record high and the S&P 500 rose around 1%. |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 12:07 PM Post #29 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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![]() --The VIX (Volatility) plunged Monday, as relief rippled across global markets (Bloomberg News, 24 April 2017) |
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| Webster | Apr 24 2017, 01:09 PM Post #30 |
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Wasatch Storyteller & Resident Forum Curmudgeon
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(The Guardian) European Markets End On High Note --Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election saw stock markets surge and the euro gain ground against the dollar and pound. The prospect of Macron beating anti-EU far right candidate Marine Le Pen - not to mention the relatively unusual sight of opinion polls making the correct call - gave some relief to investors concerned about the rise of extremism in Europe. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: This [market reaction] might seem a bit overdone, given Macron was always supposed to win the first round, and there is still a second round to go. Only in two weeks’ time will be able to put thoughts of a Len Pen presidency behind us. However, investors seem buoyed by the consistent record of French polling, one that was reinforced by the result yesterday, and are prepared to move back into risk assets once more. Of course, this hasn’t solved all the other problems, such as North Korea, Syria and the Trump administration’s failure to produce any major reforms, but for now the bears have been forced to get out of the way or risk being trampled in the rush to buy stocks again. The final scores in Europe showed: --The FTSE 100 finished up 150.13 points or 2.11% at 7264.68 --France’s Cac climbed 4.14% to 5268.85 --Germany’s Dax rose 3.37% to a closing high of 12,454.98 --Italy’s FTSE MIB closed up 4.77% at 20,684.41 --Spain’s Ibex ended up 3.76% at 10,766.8 --In Greece, the Athens market added 1.75% to 683.30 On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 211 points or 1.03%. Meanwhile the euro is currently up 1.1% against the dollar and 1.3% against the pound. |
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