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2017 TC Bret Thread
Topic Started: Jun 18 2017, 06:04 PM (18 Views)
Webster
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--NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located east-southeast of the Windward Islands. (NHC Atlantic Ops, 18 June 2017)
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Webster
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Weather Underground: Windwards, Gulf of Mexico Watching Two Tropical Waves

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It’s not every June 17 that we have two potential tropical storms to monitor in the Atlantic basin. The NWS/NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean as Invest 93L on Saturday, which kicks off the process of tracking and forecasting the wave in greater detail. The newly christened 93L joined Invest 92L, which continues to slowly organize in the central tropical Atlantic.

As of 2:00 pm EDT, the center of low pressure associated with 93L was located over the Gulf of Honduras just north of the coastline, moving slowly northwest. The broad circulation of 93L is a good example of a Central American gyre, a weak, sprawling cyclone that can deliver torrential rains and lead to catastrophic flooding. A gyre-analysis page from Philippe Papin (SUNY Albany) shows that the the circulation of 93L extends across Central America to the Pacific. Papin reported on Saturday that 93L satisfies the criteria for a Central American gyre that he and colleagues recently developed. Each year typically brings one or two of these gyres, most often in May-June or September-November.

It can be difficult for a gyre-type circulation to consolidate into a more compact tropical cyclone, since it takes a long time to get such a large mass of air spinning more rapidly. However, guidance from multiple models has been quite consistent for several days in bringing 93L to at least tropical depression strength after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula later this weekend and moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. In its 2:00 pm outlook, NHC gives 93L a 30% chance of becoming at least a depression by Monday and an 80% chance by Thursday, an increase from near-0% and 60% in yesterday morning’s outlook.

Once it enters the Gulf, 93L will have a reasonable shot at becoming a tropical storm—either Bret or Cindy, depending on the timing and evolution of 92L (see below). Sea surface temperatures are as much as 1°C above average in the Bay of Campeche, but up to 1°C below average in the north central Gulf. This means the usual north-to-south temperature gradient is a bit stronger than usual. The SSTs will range from 26.5°C to 29°C (80 – 84°F), which is adequate for tropical cyclone development, especially toward the south. 93L will experience increasing southerly wind shear as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which should serve as a brake on any rapid intensification.
-Read more: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/windwards-gulf-mexico-watching-two-tropical-waves
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Webster
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Weather Underground: Tropical Storm Bret Spreading Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds Across Western Caribbean Sea

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Tropical Storm Bret will continue to spread heavy rain and gusty winds across the southern Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela through Tuesday.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
(1) Tropical Storm Bret is currently about 315 miles east of Curacao, moving swiftly toward the west-northwest.
(2) Bret is expected to track across the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday.
(3) A tropical storm warning is in effect for Isla de Margarita in Venezuela.
(4) Heavy rain, gusty winds and increased seas are expected to be the main threats through Tuesday over the southern Windward Islands and northeastern coast of Venezuela.
(5) This system is no threat to the U.S. mainland.

Bret is expected to begin to weaken later Tuesday and become a tropical depression on Wednesday, due to increasing south-southwesterly wind shear and land interaction with Venezuela. This system is then expected to to dissipate on Thursday.
-Read more: https://www.wunderground.com/news/potential-tropical-depression-two-tropical-storm-bret
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