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Poll Night: PA-18 Special Election
Topic Started: Mar 13 2018, 08:48 PM (102 Views)
Webster
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...polls closed about 45 minutes ago; we now pick up coverage of the election as results come in....

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(Daily Kos) Polls close at 8 PM ET in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, where Republican Rick Saccone faces Democrat Conor Lamb in a special election for the final months of former Republican Rep. Tim Murphy’s term. This Western Pennsylvania seat backed Trump 58-39 and Romney 58-41, but Republicans are worried that Trump’s unpopularity, as well as a weak campaign by Saccone and a strong effort from Lamb, will allow Democrats to flip this district. While a new map ordered by the state Supreme Court will dramatically change this seat’s boundaries ahead of the November general election, Republican outside groups have still spent millions to avoid what would be an embarrassing loss.
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Polls have just closed, though it may be a while before we see any results. The NYT says it expects the first returns at around 8:20 PM ET, but it’s not clear what they’re basing that on.

(Daily Kos) Republicans have been working hard to blame one another in the event of a Saccone loss. In the event of a Saccone win, on the other hand, things sure will get very awkward in DC...
-Watch: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/973712225880952832
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Grumble. Westmoreland County, which makes up about a third of the district by population, says it doesn’t expect to post results until about 9:30 PM ET.

(Daily Kos) The very first trickle of votes has started to come in, but as always, you can’t read anything into such small numbers. We typically wait until about 10% of precincts have reported to start talking about the returns.
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Webster
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--GOP drop-off in vote share already pretty damning. Will see if it holds. If so… Lamb will win (G. Edward Morris, The Economist - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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--Just to show how much Lamb is overperforming:

Waynesburg Borough #2
2016: Trump +23
2018: Lamb +22

Waynesburg Borough #3
2016: Trump +31
2018: Saccone +8

Gray
2016: Trump +43
2018: Saccone +12

If Saccone loses tonight, this may be a reversal of tide in a red area of PA-18.
(Benchmark Politics, 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) We just crossed the 10% reporting threshold, and Lamb is up 59-41. So far, Lamb is ahead of his benchmarks (see link above) in every county, though the amount reporting in each county is still small so far.
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Webster
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(New York Times) - 15 percent
Conor Lamb, 59%
Rick Saccone, 40%
Drew Miller, 1%
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Webster
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(New York Times) - 19 percent
Conor Lamb (D), 57.1%
Rick Saccone (R), 42.3%
Drew Miller (Lib), 0.6%
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) 19% of precincts are now reporting, and Lamb’s lead remains largely steady, at 58-42. However, note that some bluer areas (particularly in Washington County) have reported first.
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) As we noted earlier, Westmoreland County says it likely won’t have any results until 9:30 PM ET. Most of the results so far are from Allegheny County, which is the bluest in the district (the portions in PA-18 went for Trump 50-46). Westmoreland’s portion is far redder: It went 65-31 Trump.

(Daily Kos) Well, looks like Westmoreland has started coming in a bit early. We just got a huge dump of votes, taking us to 36% reporting and considerably narrowing the margin, to 54-46 Lamb.
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Webster
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(New York Times) - 45 percent
Conor Lamb (D), 53.6%
Rick Saccone (R), 45.7%
Drew Miller (Lib), 0.6%
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Vote-counting has suddenly picked up steam. We’re at 45% reporting now, and Lamb is still at 54-46.
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Webster
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--More precincts rolling in

Smith 1
2016: Trump +15
2018: Lamb +15

North Bethelhem
2016: Trump +31
2018: Saccone +3

These results are spectacular numbers for Lamb.
(Benchmark Politics, 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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--So far, Lamb (D) is doing well enough in Westmoreland to pull this out: he's above 43% w/ 53% of precincts reporting there. BUT, unclear what precincts are left there. #PA18 (Dave Wasserman, Cook Political Report - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(New York Times) - 61 percent
Conor Lamb (D), 52.7%
Rick Saccone (R), 46.7%
Drew Miller (Lib), 0.6%
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