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Poll Night: PA-18 Special Election
Topic Started: Mar 13 2018, 08:48 PM (103 Views)
Webster
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...polls closed about 45 minutes ago; we now pick up coverage of the election as results come in....

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(Daily Kos) Polls close at 8 PM ET in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, where Republican Rick Saccone faces Democrat Conor Lamb in a special election for the final months of former Republican Rep. Tim Murphy’s term. This Western Pennsylvania seat backed Trump 58-39 and Romney 58-41, but Republicans are worried that Trump’s unpopularity, as well as a weak campaign by Saccone and a strong effort from Lamb, will allow Democrats to flip this district. While a new map ordered by the state Supreme Court will dramatically change this seat’s boundaries ahead of the November general election, Republican outside groups have still spent millions to avoid what would be an embarrassing loss.
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Webster
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--For a #PA18 recount, any three voters in an election district (i.e., PA's term for precinct) can request a recount of an election district. County board of elections can initiate on their own (Michael McDonald, University of Florida - 13 March 2018)
-Read more: http://codes.findlaw.com/pa/title-25-ps-elections-electoral-districts/pa-st-sect-25-3154.html
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Webster
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--If I have to, I'll explain. Promise. But the first important thing to know is that this is not a count tonight; it's unofficial and does not include absentee or provisional ballots. The formal count begins Friday, & overseas/military absentees have until next Tues to come in. (Adam Bonin, 13 March 2018)

...tweet thread follows below....
--1. Almost all the voting in these counties is done on touchscreen machines. Westmoreland County has a mix of touchscreen and optical scan. So a recount won't change things much -- only the Westmoreland paper ballots & absentees/provisionals could.
--2. Again, to stress: this isn't the official count. This is an informal count. Absentees/provisionals have not been counted yet. Wait until Friday on the former; on the latter voters have a week to verify their eligibility still.
--3. Firiday is when the real fun starts all over the place, but again the only issues of interpretation are with the paper ballots, which is a small portion of the total. And the UOCAVA votes (overseas & military) can break both ways.
--4. *After the county boards of election do their iniital count, particular decisions they make can be appealed back to the county boards of elections. Those decisions, in turn, can be appealed to the court of common pleas.

--5. And then, yes, all the machines can be judicially recanvassed/recounted upon petiitions duly filed. But most of this is just arithmetic, not staring at hanging chads.
--6. If you've come this far and need the bio info, I've lawyered three PA races in the past four years which were decided by zero-1 votes. Yes, two of them were ties and my client won the drawing of lots. So I've been deep in the weeds on this stuff.
--7. While this is a single-race ballot, ballots contained "straight ticket" and candidate options; if a voter enters conflicting info on a paper ballot (machines won't allow it), the candidate selection governs.
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Three of the five remaining Westmoreland precincts reported, and it did cut into Lamb’s lead. But the good news is that it didn’t do it by a ton: he still leads Saccone by 919 votes.

So, now 22 precincts remain: 13 from Washington County, 7 from Allegheny County, and 2 from Westmoreland.
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Webster
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--Pennsylvania Sec. of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells CNN that b/c this is a district race & not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here. Petitions are allowed, which require 3 voters in each precinct; have 5 days to file after the county completes its computation. (Daivd Wright, CNN - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Now only 15 precincts remain, and with some red precincts reporting, it’s “hold onto your butts” time. Lamb still leads, but the margin is down to 540 votes.
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Webster
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(Daily KOs) Now, we’re down to 13 precincts still left on the board, and the Lamb lead has ticked up ever so slightly. The Democrat’s lead is now 585. But almost all of Allegheny is out, so it’s down to a handful of precincts in northern Washington County.
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Just in case this wasn’t already somewhat evident, we’re not going to be done tonight..

--Bad news: Greene and Washington counties will not be reporting their absentee votes tonight. Votes will be counted and posted tomorrow, per @katiegp. (Alex Seitz-Wald, NBC News - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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--Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They've historically skewed Dem 2) More than half of them are from Allegheny Co. (despite Allegheny only being ~43% of #PA18). (Dave Wasserman, Cook Political Report - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) 580 of 593 precincts are now reporting (98%), and Lamb’s lead is now 49.8 to 49.6, or 585 votes. From the looks of it, the remaining precincts appear to be pretty red. However, absentee ballots apparently will not be counted tonight.
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Webster
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--We think Saccone will pick up a net-541 votes in the remaining Election Day vote from Wash/Allegheny County (so, excluding Westmoreland). Lamb is up by 585 (Nate Cohn, New York Times - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(Daily KOs) So the last precinct just came in in Lamb-friendly Allegheny County. His margin now stands at 775 votes, or 49.9 percent to 49.5 for Saccone. However, those last 11 precincts are all in red territory: Nine in Washington County and two in Westmoreland County.

But we almost certainly won’t know the winner tonight. That’s because most (if not all) counties are saying they won’t count absentee ballots tonight. So sit tight—very, very tight.
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Webster
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--No matter what happens tonight in #PA18, I want people to remember 2 things:

1. There should've never been a special election in the first place. Tim Murphy had a sex scandal involving his mistress. Republican values. 2. This is a Republican district. It shouldn't even be close. (Scott Dworkin, Democratic Coalition - 13 March 2018)
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Wow. Incredible. We now have 591 of 593 precincts reporting, and even though the last batch of votes came from Saccone-friendly territory, Lamb is still up 95 votes.
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) Whipping out ye old scientifick calculator, Lamb’s margin in percentage terms is 0.04%—that is to say, four hundredths of a percent. He’s up 49.72% to 49.68%. Technical term for a margin this close is “holy moly.”
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Webster
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(Daily Kos) So Allegheny absentees have reportedly been tallied. It doesn’t appear they’ve been added to official totals yet, so adding this to Lamb’s 95-vote margin would give him an edge of 847 votes. Remember: This is by far Conor Lamb’s friendliest county. The other three counties have not tallied absentees, and in fact, only Westmoreland says it will do so tonight. (Greene and Washington say they will not tonight.)
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