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Week 15 Challenge
Topic Started: Jul 4 2014, 04:19 PM (352 Views)
Dreamwalker
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How many eggs should we take?

I was just going to pick 1 before making this topic (to ensure we win a 1 egg tie-breaker since there is no 0 egg tie-breaker), but Jet took an egg too, so now we have 2 eggs and (if Platinum doesn't take any more eggs) we've lost the 2 egg tie-breaker to Platinum.

Do you think we should stay at 2 or go higher

Remember 10 of 100 eggs are so bad they negate all our chicken eggs.
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toonsage
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i'm thinking less than 5, but that doesn't mean it's the best plan.
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Dreamwalker
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Okay, well it's noted. We could see if we could win the tie-breakers for 3 or 4, maybe, if other Quake people agree.
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Echo

Should we wait and see how many eggs other teams are taking? If the other teams are only taking around 5 eggs, we could probably go a little above that number and still have a relatively safe chance of not hitting a gator egg.
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X-Rider

I don't think this is the best time to tell you guys to be more ballsy, since there is a high chance that that'll screw us over, so I'll just sit here with Egg #79 and wait for it to hatch.
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Dreamwalker
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6 eggs is the highest we can go that still gives us less than a 50% chance of getting any gator eggs..

So I think we should stay 6 and under for sure. I'm fine with the under 5 proposal as well, but if the team thinks we should go for 5 or 6, then I guess that's cool.
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Cody11533
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I'd say it's best to wait and see what the other teams do for now. Overall, 5 or so as a max seems fine.
Edited by Cody11533, Jul 4 2014, 06:49 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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No more input yet? Well then I guess I'll count what other teams have so far and see with what (low) numbers we could win a tie-breaker still.
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Dreamwalker
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Eggs that have been claimed by teams:

Quake 37, 79 (2 total)
Platinum 77, 19, 17, 78 (4 total)
Vortex (0 total)
Yggdrasil 95 (1 total)
Inferno 22, 43, 2 (3 total)

So we'll have to go up to 5 eggs at the moment if we want to win a tie-breaker and be higher than 2 eggs. With 5 eggs, there would be approximately a 40.95% chance that at least one is a gator egg. It's an uncomfortably high probability, but it's still well under 50%, so it's still reasonable to go up there.

Opinions? Should we take those 3 more eggs needed to reach 5?
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Kefiroth
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41% is still a bit too high for my liking. I'd feel more comfortable taking only 4.
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ROBANN_88
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i say go to 5. no more
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Dreamwalker
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If we only take 4, we lose to Platinum in the situation where we both get 4 chicken eggs (and also in the situation where we both get 3 chicken eggs and 1 gator egg). So unless we can get Platinum to go up to 5 (so they have a different number than us), I wouldn't recommend going for 4.
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Choco
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plat and inf, the 2 who are "ahead" of us, have a combined total of 7 eggs, so one of them will most likely get a dragon egg, so 2nd place seems pretty likely right now
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Dreamwalker
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But if we stay where we are, I don't expect the teams "behind" us to stay at 0 and 1. They might go "ahead" of us at the last moment and win. Just something to consider.

I guess if we want to avoid Shame, maybe the best thing to do is to take no more eggs though, and this "let's not get shame" strategy has worked pretty well for us the past few weeks not having to vote anyone out, so inductive reasoning indicates it is likely to happen again.
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number_0ne

I say we go to 4.
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Dreamwalker
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I already replied to that exact suggestion...

Dreamwalker
Jul 5 2014, 10:01 AM
If we only take 4, we lose to Platinum in the situation where we both get 4 chicken eggs (and also in the situation where we both get 3 chicken eggs and 1 gator egg). So unless we can get Platinum to go up to 5 (so they have a different number than us), I wouldn't recommend going for 4.


Platinum still has 4 eggs right now, so my reply is still valid.

If you're fine with losing to Platinum then yeah I guess 4 is a possibility, but that just seems like kind of an odd choice.
Edited by Dreamwalker, Jul 5 2014, 05:26 PM.
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Dreamwalker
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So.. any more opinions? I'll be up for another hour or two tonight. Then I might try to wake up right before the deadline as well.
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Dreamwalker
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Okay, going to sleep now. I'll wake up in less than 7 hours so I still have time to claim eggs before the deadline if such an action is warranted.
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number_0ne

Well, if we tie with platinum, we still share dominance. It doesn't really matter if we get it to ourselves, but if we tie for first we're stiil fine.

Quake 37, 79 (2 total)
Platinum 77, 19, 17, 78 (4 total)
Vortex (0 total)
Yggdrasil 95, 9 (2 total)
Inferno 22, 43, 2 (3 total)
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Choco
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Quote:
 
If there is a tie between teams that took at least one egg, the team that took their last egg sooner will be placed ahead of the other. If there is a tie between 2 teams that did not take an egg, they will share the position.
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number_0ne

Darn it, I can't read again. If another group claims an egg and puts us in 4th place, then I'll claim one, otherwise I guess we should just stay where we are.

Edit: actually, should I claim one now? Otherwise I'd have to claim 2, which seems risky.
Edited by number_0ne, Jul 6 2014, 06:44 AM.
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Dreamwalker
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I'm here now.

I don't think we want to accidentally both claim eggs. That would be a disaster. So just let me handle whatever we do.
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Dreamwalker
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Okay, I had a post previewed with eggs 59 and 58 and was rapid-refreshing to see if anything happened that would warrant such a post, and it didn't, so I never posted it. Whew.

Now we just wait on the results.
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Choco
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Choco
Jul 5 2014, 10:15 AM
plat and inf, the 2 who are "ahead" of us, have a combined total of 7 eggs, so one of them will most likely get a dragon egg, so 2nd place seems pretty likely right now
and now I hate myself
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Dreamwalker
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The one plus side to my not noticing Yggdrasil's 3rd egg is that if I had noticed it I would have wanted to bring Quake up to 4 eggs and my planned eggs were 59 and 58. 58 would've shamed us, so in that sense it's good I didn't notice the 3rd Ygg egg.
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Choco
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Yay!
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ROBANN_88
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it has been a long time since we had to vote anyone out.
but it was bound to happen eventually
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X-Rider

So who should we vote for? A few of our members haven't been very active, so we should probably vote off one of the less-active players.
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Echo

X-Rider
Jul 6 2014, 03:58 PM
So who should we vote for? A few of our members haven't been very active, so we should probably vote off one of the less-active players.
Do you want to elaborate when you say "a few of our members"? You could name a couple of people you feel haven't been active, instead of a more general statement.

Looking at the members list, everyone has logged in today except for Dowolf and Radman.
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Dreamwalker
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Yeah, I see what you mean about dowolf and radman being here less often, but oddly neither is the one with the least posts. That honor actually goes to toonsage.

Everyone on the team is here when we need them to be here though, so idk.
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Echo

Nah, you do know.
Its not particularly surprising though.
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X-Rider

I don't recall seeing dowolf or Radman here much... I guess I just missed their posts. >.>

Well I'm not sure who to vote off then, I guess we could vote off toonsage. She's lucky to have gotten this far anyway.
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Choco
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X-Rider
Jul 7 2014, 05:27 AM
Well I'm not sure who to vote off then, I guess we could vote off toonsage. She's lucky to have gotten this far anyway.
what makes you say that
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X-Rider

Choco
Jul 7 2014, 10:11 AM
X-Rider
Jul 7 2014, 05:27 AM
Well I'm not sure who to vote off then, I guess we could vote off toonsage. She's lucky to have gotten this far anyway.
what makes you say that
She would've gotten eliminated at the team merge if machete hadn't lengthened the timer. Not the best reason to vote someone off, but she's not very active either, so it's better than randomly voting someone off.
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Choco
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idk, pronounce doesn't seem to like being on this team, can't say the same about anyone else.

but maybe I'm just misinterpreting his weird posts.
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Echo

I'd use the word "blunt" instead of "weird".
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Choco
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how about annoying
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X-Rider

Hooray we only lost two people, or one, depending on how pronouncemyname does in this challenge. Wish you all the best of luck in future challenges, whether we're enemies or allies.
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Dreamwalker
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Thanks. Yeah, Quake has done pretty well.
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X-Rider

I wish we found out who the leaker was... Maybe he'll say when the game's over or he's eliminated. Doesn't really matter since we did best out of all the teams.
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Dreamwalker
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I agree with that whole sentiment.
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Choco
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X-Rider
Jul 9 2014, 05:27 PM
I wish we found out who the leaker was... Maybe he'll say when the game's over or he's eliminated. Doesn't really matter since we did best out of all the teams.
I'd be surprised if it's anyone other than pronounce
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Dreamwalker
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For those interested parties, here's how the split happened to Quake:

Choco, Dream, Jet, Pronounce (if you count him), Radman, Rob, and Toon all joined Ebony.
Cody, Dowolf, Kefi, and Number all joined Ivory.

So it's a 6-4 split (or 7-4, if you count Pronounce, but I feel like I probably shouldn't count him)
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