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| Expectations | |
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| Topic Started: Dec 28 2006, 02:30 PM (341 Views) | |
| Renegade | Dec 28 2006, 02:30 PM Post #1 |
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what
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The Next-Gen forum will now be used to talk about the PS4, Xbox Whatever, and anything Nintendo comes up with next. So, I think it's a good idea for all of us to say what we expect from the current three consoles in the future, and your most anticipated games for it. PS3: If Sony keeps losing exclusives, 2007 won't be the best year for them. Although in the end, they were right, people will keep buying the console out of brand-recognition. It's a cheap blu-ray player, and a nice alternative to the Xbox 360. It just all really depends on which exclusives you prefer. Let's also hope they keep the SIXAXIS nonsense to a minimum, and they improve their online service, because if they don't, it will end up making them lose a lot of software sales. Don't really think the PS3 will take 1st place in anything, the price is just too high, and the games are too few. I'll be buying a PS3 after 2 price drops. Games to look forward to: Final Fantasy XIII, Zone of the Enders 3, Lair, Gran Turismo 5, Metal Gear Solid 4 Xbox 360: I expect a lot of good things from the 360 in the coming years. Strong (but limited) exclusives and Microsoft willing to expand to other genres (not to mention the nice warranty boost) are very good indicators that the console is here to stay and won't be going anywhere. While it probably won't really hit the Japan market like they thought it would, at least Blue Dragon showed that it's not really the console they hate, but the games. What it needs is less 360-PC/viceversa ports, and more exclusives, though. PC gamers don't want 360-style games, thanks. I really expect Microsoft to take 1st place in America this time around (Halo 3 ), but 2nd place in overall sales.Games to look forward to: Lost Planet, Halo 3, Halo Wars, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Virtua Fighter 5 Wii: Well what can be said that people don't already know? The Wii is fun, but it's fun with the right games. Developers need to implement Wii controls because it's essential to the game, not because they can. Zelda, Wii Sports, Elebits, Rayman, Madden '07 are good examples of this. The Wii will continue to sell like hotcakes so much as there are first party titles coming out for it. And with Nintendo's seemingly resurrected from the grave third party support, it'll take a lot of mistakes for the Wii to go downhill. I actually think big studios should follow EA's example, for once... form a Wii-only studio, that way they can actually make sure the games are a lot more fun to play with a Wiimote, and not an obstacle. Games to look forward to: Super Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros Brawl, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Battalion Wars 2, SSX Blur, Kirby |
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| RumourMaker18 | Dec 28 2006, 03:04 PM Post #2 |
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The Transcendent Pig
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No, it's still the console to a large degree. BD sold far less than it could have had it been on the PS3 or even the Wii. There were no lines for it; preorders were filled and they still had tons of copies left over. It's to be expected based on the userbase of thr 360, but there have been plenty of games targeted at the Japanese on the Xbox and 360; they just don't like the console enough to care. BD sold on it's name alone. |
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| Killer Kitty | Dec 28 2006, 04:21 PM Post #3 |
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Wizardry 9
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I expect the PS3 to get a lot of great exclusives and plenty of JRPGs. I expect the 360 to be an awesome system with an awesome library of games, if you don't own a high-end PC. I expect the Wii to be a great secondary console with 7 - 15 (maybe even more) worthwhile exclusives that are well worth the cheap price to pay for the system. I own a Wii, and I'll have a PS3 within the year, and in a couple of years when the 360 is cheap, I'll pick one up to check out the few system exlusives which didn't get ported to the PC. So basically, I expect each system to play the same role they played last gen. |
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| anderton | Dec 28 2006, 04:39 PM Post #4 |
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Unregistered
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This. I already have a Wii and a 360, the former which has failed to impress me. |
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| RumourMaker18 | Dec 29 2006, 01:54 AM Post #5 |
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The Transcendent Pig
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It's going to be more evenly spread out between the PS3 and the 360. A lot of studios are going to have Wii specific studios, and it's going to thrive on ported games from the PS2 for the next year since it can't get them from the 360/PS3. The Wii's going to do better than the GCN, but still third. |
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| Renegade | Dec 29 2006, 11:34 PM Post #6 |
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what
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I really don't think it'll be 3rd place in sales anymore. I mean, in a general sense, you only ever hear people talking about the Wii everywhere you go. Word of mouth advertising, and it gets around fast. Seriously, I took my Wii to my friends' house today, and then he proceeded to tell his parents that he didn't want a Wii, he needed a Wii; also my two friends that were there pretty much said that they didn't like Zelda at all, but TP for the Wii might just get them into the series. Unlike the Gamecube which had a piss poor launch and was the same as the PS2 and Xbox in terms of what it offered, sans online, people are crazy about the Wii, and I don't see how the hype can die out if Nintendo can space out the releases of it's first-party titles in a tolerable timetable. Not saying that the Wii is the best console ever, but people who don't own one seriously go insane over it. |
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| RumourMaker18 | Dec 30 2006, 01:47 AM Post #7 |
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The Transcendent Pig
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If the Wii can get that non-gamer audience that Nintendo is looking for, then it can definetely get second, but I'm not sure how well that will work. It's working in Japan, no doubt (see: Wii Sports and Wii Play each selling 50k more than Zelda at launch), but the rest of the world matters a lot more... |
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| Killer Kitty | Dec 30 2006, 01:49 AM Post #8 |
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Wizardry 9
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Wii Play has ping pong right? Because I'd kill for a good ping pong game on the system. |
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| Renegade | Dec 30 2006, 02:45 AM Post #9 |
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what
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I think it has ping pong. I'm just saying, Rumour, that if the Wii continues to sell as well as it is right now, then it won't be 3rd. I'm guessing the 360 will continue to be at top, with the Wii at 2nd and PS3 third. Why I don't think PS3 will be #1: Most people don't have a reason to adopt a PS3 now. HDTV owners are in the minority and Gears of War proved that you don't need 20gb of space to make a good next-gen game, so Blu-Ray is irrelevant. This isn't the PS2 era where a new media format was the must-have thing. And the launch games... well, lets just leave it at that. So once the heavy hitters like MGS4 and FFXIII come out, of course PS3 sales will pick up, in the US at least. Japan will keep selling out as long as there is some kind of Gundam or Macross Robot whatever game. I'll get one eventually too just for the exclusives. But all the while, you can't forget that Microsoft still has Halo 3, and Nintendo has Metroid, Mario, and Smash Bros... and that appeal to casual non-gamers thing. |
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| RumourMaker18 | Dec 30 2006, 03:14 AM Post #10 |
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The Transcendent Pig
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I was actually watching this thing on CNN that said that within the next one or two years HD capable TVs will be used more than standard TVs...
Blu-ray is very relevant, if only because the PS3 is the cheapest Blu-ray player on the market by a good $400. If someone is going to buy a Blu-ray player they're probably going to buy a PS3, at least for the next year. And at any rate, you're vastly underestimating the value of a gigantic, loyal userbase. People trust Sony because they're had tons of great games for the past two generations, and once more are available and the library is a bit more stable, the PS3's sales will pick up majorly because at that those 100 million PS2 owners will start to take more notice. |
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| Deleted User | Dec 30 2006, 04:42 AM Post #11 |
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Deleted User
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It's also the best one right now, IIRC. Thing is, blu-ray isn't a big deal. Most people are watching to see which format wins out. It's very different from the PS2/DVD relationship.
Weren't the same things said about the N64? |
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| RiotGrrl | Dec 30 2006, 11:06 AM Post #12 |
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Errant Dreamer
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Right, exactly. There's no guarantee that Blu-Ray will be the next big thing. No guarantee at all. It has competition with HD-DVD already, and different movie companies are signed on to provide movies for both of them exclusively. It's not the entire thing where DVD just took over like wildfire when there was no competition for it. I'm still very unsure as to which will take first, second, or third in the console race... but my expectations are as follows: PlayStation 3: When the price halves itself (at least!) and it's got a substantial library, I'll consider picking one up. I expect the PS3 to be an excellent system to own - it's disappointed me so far, but that doesn't mean that I've shut it out entirely from the future. If there isn't a price drop soon enough (and there probably aren't many plans to do so in the future - Sony is already losing $200 on every 60gig console they sell), they could lose more and more of that loyal fanbase. Several of my friends were die-hard Sony fans, and they felt pretty screwed over by the price and the lack of games. I don't know a single person IRL that owns one, and I know quite a few gamers. XBox 360: The XBox 360 could be the next big thing this generation, if it wasn't for the Japanese aversion to the system. It seems to be nearly as graphically capable as the PS3 (and right now developers are tapping into it a lot better), and it's cheaper to develop on. But the fact that it's a Western console in the Eastern world doesn't bode well. I could definitely see the 360 becoming the #1 console here in the United States, but in Japan, it might just stay in 3rd place. Without Japanese developers' support, the 360 can't ever really take off. I know about 2 people that actually own one IRL. Wii: The Nintendo Wii... I don't really know what to say about it besides what's been said in the past. The only thing I think that could stop it now is if the novelty wears off. Of course, the DS has proven the whole gimmick thing to be false - the Wii has to prove itself in that way too. If companies start creating Wii-only teams, and develop games specifically for the Wii only, then we could see all new, exciting, and unique games that correctly use the controller. I can definitely see Wii taking second place this generation. I can't imagine it taking 3rd, but it's hard for me to believe at this point that it'll take first, either. I know about 8 people that already have Wiis, and I know about a dozen more that'll be getting theirs in the near future. |
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| sharc | Dec 30 2006, 01:00 PM Post #13 |
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wandering slacker
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you can draw comparisons to the n64 - or to the cd-i, if you want to look at consoles being used to push a new proprietary format - but unlike nintendo or phillips in those situations, sony has substantial backing from third party developers and several major franchises in the bag. what really interests me about this generation of consoles is that it looks like there could be less potential for multiplatform development. wii games, if actually built around the console's unique strengths, obviously won't translate well to ps3 or 360. the ps3 is also using a lot of forward-thinking technology, to the detriment of an affordable price and ease of development, and in hopes that long-term benefits will offset all the initital problems with the platform. while my experience is limited, i can say that there's substantial difficulty putting the 360 builds on a ps3 because of hardware differences. the question is whether familarity will lower the difficulty in translating between 360 and ps3; if it does, then i'd imagine this generation will play as a continued war of attrition with microsoft snapping up any developers that become dissatisfied with sony's practices or development costs. the process would play out much slower than the ps1's coup, due to microsoft being an american company, but there's still somewhere else to go if sony won't let a developer do what they want. but if, over time, it becomes impractical to develop the big-name games for both 360 and ps3, i think that would make things considerably more interesting and we'd get more of a relationship like the snes-genesis days. i'm not sure if that's realistic, but if the ps3's projected high development costs are accurate, and if cross-platform games are a pain in the butt for developers, then producing games for both platforms could be spreading your resources too thin without making enough profit back for the practice to be worthwhile. oh well. i'm certianly no economist, but i do think this generation will become an interesting fight to watch.
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| UtopiaNH | Dec 30 2006, 02:06 PM Post #14 |
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Cu Roi
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Considering the vast majority of titles still treat the touch screen as a gimmick on the system, it has proven absolutely nothing. It's amazing to sit down with a DS game and leave my pointer inside the system itself and never use it outside of the initial loading. And then the games I've played so far that use it, really don't do anything that hasn't been done better with a mouse. I'm sure there are titles out there that take huge advantage over it, but it still feels very much like a gimmick. Plus the DS started from the lead on the market with the handhelds, and it still lost ground to the PSP, being the first handheld to actually hold out against a nintendo handheld since the Gamegear. I'm sure the Wii will have a strong market, and due to the low cost development will have a decent selection of titles and a strong casual gamer and younger audience demographic, but it sure as hell won't capture the "gamer" market. |
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| Renegade | Dec 30 2006, 02:53 PM Post #15 |
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what
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It's really the only handheld that 'tried' to compete with Nintendo in the recent years (Unless you really think all those Bandai handhelds or the N-Gage count), and everyone expected the PSP to demolish it due to vastly superior hardware and media. Rumour, you forget that Blu-Ray isn't fully established yet, and it has serious comptetion (HD-DVD players are half the price of Blu-Ray players, and the quality is the same or better even), and the PS3 is two times more expensive than the PS2 was at launch. Not only that, but Sony is also losing (valuable) exclusives to Microsoft which could have been system sellers (GTA, Virtua Fighter, Assassin's Creed, MGS maybe). I really don't think all 100 million PS2 owners will buy a PS3 just because it has a sequel to a game they like, considering all these circumstances. You guys also need to remember that a vast majority of that 100 million mark are casual gamers. And if GTA is on a 360, you bet they'll opt for that instead of a PS3. |
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| Killer Kitty | Dec 30 2006, 03:27 PM Post #16 |
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Wizardry 9
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I don't know about that. All I ever heard before the PSP release was "It's going to fail, battery life is too short, too expensive, no good upcoming releases" etc. I think the PSP's game library is severely underrated and with all the homebrew and emulators, it's definitely my favourite handheld thus far. The DS has some impressive games and is getting tons of support so it's bound to get plenty more. I just hate the design of the system. I think the dual-screen feature is completely useless and the stylus is very awkward to use. |
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| Runeslash | Dec 30 2006, 03:56 PM Post #17 |
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109th Star of Destiny
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I don't know what to expect, and I don't feel I have enough concrete, number-crunching info to make any accurate predictions. What I can tell you is this... every gamer I know IRL is talking about the Wii or has a Wii, NOT the PS3 or Xbox 360. Every gaming store I go into has a rack of games for the Wii twice as large as that of the Xbox 360 despite having just launched, and the PS3 rack is virtually nonexistant. Every store I go into can't keep their Wii's stocked despite having much better shipment numbers than the PS3. And every store employee, repeat, EVERY employee I've talked to this month has tried to sell me a Wii. One guy almost started an outright arguement with me because I wanted the Gamecube version of Zelda and all they had was the Wii version. One store I went into even had to remove the controllers and limit things to just a Zelda video demo replaying because too many people were screwing around with the Wiimotes. By contrast, I've never seen anyone play the store's set up PS3 or Xbox 360 even before the Wii was released. So what does this mean? One of two things... either I just happen to live in a place where people like the Wii and as such I have an unrealistic picutre of things, or that this is an indication of which system people want. I can't tell you which because I simply don't know if what's true here is true elsewhere. That's why I don't have any expectations to post at this point. But maybe my case can help illustrate things for the rest of you who might be more informed, and that's the reason I'm posting this. Personally, I haven't bought or played any of the new systems yet, though I plan to at some point. So naturally, it's especially interesting to me to see everyone's viewpoints... this isn't as simple as the Nintendo vs. Sega days, and every system has very valid selling points and arguements in their favor. |
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| UtopiaNH | Dec 30 2006, 05:05 PM Post #18 |
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Cu Roi
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The Dreamcast had the same kind of presence and launch. I remember being that I worked at EB at it's launch period and it did capture the same kind of hype. There's little question that the Wii has already gotten more of a good start than the Gamecube, but I serverely doubt it's going to be first, or even close to first in the system wars. I see Xbox 360 far more likely than the Wii to take over "IF" the PS3 fails. |
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| Renegade | Dec 30 2006, 05:36 PM Post #19 |
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what
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Yeah but the main difference is, Dreamcast had nothing to compete against when it launched, while the Wii has the PS3 and 360. When the Gamecube and Xbox launched, the DC was all but forgotten. |
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| Carbunkle Flux | Dec 30 2006, 05:40 PM Post #20 |
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Abyssian Legend
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My expectations: -The Wii presents a very interesting conundrum for developers in that games are difficult to port to it without some kind of overhaul and that it has a unique control system that they must take into consideration. I am inclined to agree with Utopianh on this one; it's going to be strong, but not strong enough to capture the 'gamer' market. Not only that, but developers (and in some cases, even freaking Nintendo itself) have yet to prove that they can consistently use the DS' capabilities in an intuitive manner that is not simply a random gimmick. This does not give me a lot of faith in how the Wii is going to be treated and my mind just keeps getting filled with gimmicky tech demos the likes of Deep Labyrinth, but you know what? We'll see. For all I know right now, it could just come out on top. -I could not care less about the XBox360 and for that matter, neither does Japan. Microsoft is stronger this time around, but if they don't garner that support they need they're not really going to succeed over there. -PS3 is too expensive, too expensive, too expensive. Banked its own success on the very success of Sony's new, incredibly expensive technology. I personally think that wasn't a very intelligent move of them, because if HD-DVD catches on instead who knows what could happen? None the less, the PS3 has some promising titles coming into the horizon so after some price drops it could start to compete. However, I sure as hell am not buying one while 'IT WILL RETAIL FOR FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS.' |
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), but 2nd place in overall sales.





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