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Botta Bing NYI prediction; ipb.com
Topic Started: Oct 8 2010, 08:55 AM (400 Views)
stevedepot
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WISENHEIMER
Chris Botta's latest is a must read.

http://www.islanderspointblank.com/2010/10...out-the-future/

Quote:
 

37-35-10, FIGHT FOR BERTH, FINISH IN 10TH
The big picture: It’s still about the future
October 8th, 2010 by admin 28 Comments


Your prediction of the Islanders’ final record and standing is welcomed in Comments. This is a one-Comment-per-reader thread. Thank you.



8:35 am: After finishing three games under NHL .500 last season, the New York Islanders will finish 2010-11 with a record of 37-35-10. Those 84 points will be a five-point improvement from last year’s big jump, which would be a good thing when you consider the roster and the adversity.



The 84 points will not be enough for the Islanders to clinch their first playoff berth since Garth Snow began his slow and steady rebuild after Ryan Smyth left town.



Some overrated Eastern teams like Atlanta, hyped simply because they rattled their rosters, will finish behind the Islanders. Without almost no expectations projected on them, the Islanders and the Oilers should be the loosest teams in the league. The game can be easier to play when you’re pressure-free and playing up a massive underdog theme. You should see that this weekend.



Although some players and coaches have said they’re sick and tired of talking about rebuilding, the program will continue for another season, but the Islanders will take heart in being in the playoff hunt in March. They will finish in tenth place in the Eastern Conference. The Country will be rewarded with another top-ten overall draft pick and perhaps a chance at another cornerstone player.



Hopefully for the franchise and its fans, it will be the last time they acquire one from the top of the draft. Since the summer of 2006 - remember the “committee”? - the Islanders have entered the NHL draft with overall picks No. 7 (Kyle Okposo), 5 (moved back for Bailey and sweeteners), 1 (John Tavares) and 5 (Nino Niederreiter). After another top pick in 2011, the fans will have every right to demand the end of rebuilding as an excuse for losing. Scott Gordon, Rick DiPietro and other players already have, and that is much appreciated.



The accomplishment of reaching 84 points with this lineup, with injuries to a pair of top-five roster players and coming off Camp Bizarro will be more than enough to earn Gordon a new contract from Charles Wang. Heck, 74 points might get it done. Too bad it’s even a question.



It’s one thing for Wang and Snow to have their way of doing things - “the Islander Way” is how management explains its rationale to players, as if they were the Devils or Red Wings. It’s another for them to go on the record with condescending comments (”We like Scott”) while giving the coach no security. If the ship starts to sink during the season, some players might tune out the coach, believing he won’t be back and assured they’ll have another year to “prove” themselves. It stinks, to say the least.



Also consider these salary figures, calculated by Capgeek for Point Blank. The Islanders are currently keeping Mark Streit and Okposo on their salary cap to reach the CBA-mandated floor. Take away bonuses, the Alexei Yashin and Brendan Witt buyouts and long-term injuries to Streit and Okposo, and the Islanders are spending $30,609,916 on their roster players entering the season. That’s $12,790,084 below the salary cap floor.



Still, this is a solid coaching staff, and they have at least a dozen top-flight professionals with talent and big hearts that will keep the Islanders more competitive than predicted by…well, just about every writer and broadcaster in North America. Oh, Daddy…

The goaltending should, at worst, equal the quality provided by Dwayne Roloson last season. The defense, without Streit until at least the All-Star break, is deeper and a bit better than last year if there are no more major injuries. It’s too bad Snow couldn’t pull off his forward version of the James Wisniewski trade. Kris Versteeg was traded by Chicago to Toronto for not much. Like Wisniewski, Versteeg makes $3 million and plays big. He loves Gordon and four months ago was a major contributor to a Stanley Cup team. Without Okposo, this team would look so much better with a B+ forward acquisition instead of another waiver wire attempt at genius.



The forward corps is not deep, even with a few good men in Bridgeport. The loss of Okposo for a few months is significant, but cannot be used by the franchise as a major excuse. Keep in mind, the Islanders didn’t plan on playing Okposo to the right of John Tavares. Since the first day of training camp through today, PA Parenteau has been in that spot.



In the big picture - yes, the Islanders still aren’t good enough to look anywhere else - this season must be another one with a priority on development.



Keeping Nino Niederreiter here, even if it’s just for nine games, comes off as another case of management getting a crush on a kid - and selling the rebuild when the die-hards have already bought in - than a case of hockey sense. Whether he’s in New York or Portland, Niederreiter has to show he was worthy of his fifth overall selection in the midst of a run of some outstanding talent through pick No. 15. He very well could have been, but why are the Islanders rushing him? El Nino is coming off a 60-point season playing against fellow teenagers in the Western Hockey League. Sixty points.



It says everything about how much Islanders Country wants to believe in its youth that Josh Bailey is almost universally hailed while a fourth-line grinder like Jon Sim is often villified. Never mind the fact that Bailey had one more even-strength goal last season than Sim, despite more playing time. Never mind that the youngster had six fewer even-strength points last season than Richard Park. Bailey has to take a big leap, not have a good week here and there, to prove Snow’s rush-the-youth program is wise instead of desperate. Bailey has to be better.



John Tavares will be, probably to the tune of 30-35 goals. Considering his current linemates are Blake Comeau and PA Parenteau - neither proven first-line NHLers by any stretch of the imagination - a 25% improvement from Tavares in year two would be significant.



While they hover around .500 - the early-season stretch on the road will be a formidable challenge - the goal for the Islanders is to make sure the wheels don’t fall off during the tough stretches. No sideshows. No media meltdowns. No in-fighting. Nothing short of first-class player treatment. If the franchise is having trouble convincing top players to come here, management needs to show their own that this is a place they don’t want to leave.



Beyond Snow, the Islanders are not deep in the management ranks. It’s just Wang and Snow, which may explain the disrespect you’ve seen the last few weeks in national columns and even the usually-soft league broadcast partners at VERSUS. (Yep, the sports media, like the Islanders, is a buddy-buddy business).



The Islanders do not have a team president. The team does not have a Senior VP of Hockey Operations or an assistant GM who can walk into a locker room and quiet a storm. The Islanders don’t have a Mark Messier around to kick a kid’s rear or give him a hug and a faceoff lesson. (Hey, did Bryan Trottier ever get that new job Snow told the media about?) With little leadership of note in the front office, it’s on Coach Gordon to stand up in his third season and take charge. If he believes something is BS, he has to say so (behind closed doors, of course, not Teddy-style).




Doug Weight, the most respected man in the entire organization, is worth every cent the Islanders are paying him. Without the captain, and especially with Streit sidelined, the team would be rudderless. From the start of camp, Weight enforced professionalism and good work habits. With health he can still be a playmaker, but his ultimate value is in leadership, and - if he wants - Weight’s work could lead to a role in management.



I love that the coaching staff and the players are entering the season with an “enough about rebuilding” approach. Internally and to their fans via the media, this should be the message. But in reality, although they will accomplish more than the 13th, 14th and 15th place finishes so many columnists and even some of their biggest cheerleaders predict, the Islanders - still - are playing for next season and the one after that. They cannot lose sight of this.
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BSutter21
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I would be happy with that record and 10th in the conference right now, especially with KO and Streit out. I just don't see how that can happen. We need so much to go right and health on our side the rest of the way. I would see that record and finish as progress, especially if we start to see the future unfold, with the play of guys like Bailey, Comeau, Martin. That would give the country hope.

He makes alot of valid points, as usual, about management (or lack thereof). It sure would be nice if Wang put more money into the team and not just on the ice, but in radio, a proven president who could run the team, etc.
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Ozzie307
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For the most part, pre-season seed predictions in hockey are silly. We could be in playoff contention all year and finish 14th because all the teams are so bunched together with the loser points. They should just say playoffs teams and non-playoff teams.

Overall, pretty good analysis and nothing we don't know already. Let's just drop the puck...I'm sick of all the doom and gloom crap.
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OlTimeHockey
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I think everyone's missing something: Wang IS Team President. The rest of the cuts save him even more money so he can enjoy his parking increase and ticket increase and such.
"clearly it's Rick DiPietro's stupidity that's put the islanders in this situation getting into an altercation when a game was over..." Keith Jones on VS

"But the Coliseum became a repository for all the team's troubles, a convenient scapegoat. There were suggestions that no major free agent ever would set foot in such a decrepit place. We have two words for anyone making that argument: Fenway Park. History says free agents would play in an old boxcar if they got enough money and had a chance to win." - Mark Herrmann

查理斯 請死你混蛋
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Webb20
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Quote:
 
Bailey has to be better.

He's just 21, he will be better, much better. The comparison with him and Sim/Park are a little unfair as this kid is just starting his rise in his career to the apex of those 2 he's compared to.

As far as his prediction about where we will finish. I wish I could not agree with him. I'm hoping for a nice surprise but the reality is we don't have proven top talent like most other teams.

I sold it all, retired and moved to Fabulous Las Vegas!
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
"Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves."-Ronald Reagan
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sybo
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Webb20,Oct 8 2010
01:06 PM
I'm hoping for a nice surprise but the reality is we don't have proven top talent like most other teams.

Well I can't think of a better time for these guys to make the transition from "potential" to "proven" talent. Every good player has that season where they make that leap...time for our guys to have theirs :cheers: :cheers:
Garth Snow circa 2006:
Quote:
 
but how can you not be excited about DiPietroRobert NilssonRyan O'MarraPetteri NokelainenJeremy CollitonKyle OkposoBlake ComeauSean BergenheimChris Campoliand so many others.
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Webb20
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sybo,Oct 8 2010
01:32 PM
Webb20,Oct 8 2010
01:06 PM
I'm hoping for a nice surprise but the reality is we don't have proven top talent like most other teams.

Well I can't think of a better time for these guys to make the transition from "potential" to "proven" talent. Every good player has that season where they make that leap...time for our guys to have theirs :cheers: :cheers:

And being close in age, have a few of them do it at one time. :yes:
I sold it all, retired and moved to Fabulous Las Vegas!
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
"Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves."-Ronald Reagan
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Shooter
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Someday in the future, Bailey and Tavares will be all stars.
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3POTI
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Bring back...PRIDE OF THE ISLAND
Shooter,Oct 8 2010
06:23 PM
Someday in the future, Bailey and Tavares will be all stars.

hope they are still playing for us..
Today Is A Great Day To Be An Islander Fan!
Live For The Moment!

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IronIslander77
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Enter witty comment here...
Can someone explain to me how the Jets left Long Island twice? Confused.
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Jackace
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IronIslander77,Oct 8 2010
07:02 PM
Can someone explain to me how the Jets left Long Island twice? Confused.

Maybe when they left Shea Stadium for Giants Stadium, and now with the team's training camp having moved from Hofstra to Florham Park.
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