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| January 2014 Natural Events Predictions | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 29 2013, 06:19 PM (155 Views) | |
| FireRat | Dec 29 2013, 06:19 PM Post #1 |
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Wishing a Happy New Year to all now that 2013 is coming to a close. Looking back on this ending year, December was thankfully less active than feared, leaving November 2013 as the worst natural disaster year since March 2011. looking ahead, will January 2014 top this? Probably not quite, although there is potential for this month to come close and easily rival December 2013. *Special Note...However, further down the road into 2014, there will be months that could top March 2011 and November 2013*, meaning that January shouldn't be the worst month of the new year...but also won't be the quietest. 2014 will likely be a severe natural disasters year like many others have been saying, and just to give my slice of the pie I can tell you all that Late Winter-Spring as well as Late Summer-Fall will be the major risk portions of the new year. January 2014 looks set to be a big Winter Weather month, with some EQ risk as well. Well my friends, here goes... this is how the month may look y'all: January 5: Possible Scenario: An Earthquake could strike on this day with possibly moderate impacts, with the quake likely being in the Magnitude 6.0 to 6.5 range or having impacts typical for quakes of this strength. 2nd Possible Scenario: A strong flash flood may occur on this date as well, especially in areas receiving heavy rains on this date or just prior. Main Areas to Watch: Watch the world's earthquake zones such as areas along the Pacific Ring of Fire, and areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as in Japan and Indonesia. Also watch regions experiencing heavy rains. Modest Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this time is 10 percent. January 7-9: Most Likely Scenario: Major Winter Storm, possibly accompanied by a Significant Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak, could strike during these dates. 2nd Likely Scenario: Land-hitting Cyclone in the South Pacific or South Indian Ocean region is also a strong possibility during this period. 3rd Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly significant impacts may also hit, especially on January 7th and 9th. The Magnitude might approach M 7.0 - M 7.5. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch world areas around the Pacific Ring of Fire as well as areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as South America and The Canary Islands. Also watch other quake-prone regions, like northern and Eastern Africa and the Middle East. For the Bad Weather: Watch the Northern and Central portions of North America and Europe for potential Major Winter Weather Events, including Blizzards and Ice Storms. Such storms could be accompanied by Severe Weather further south, and should this be the case, the Southern U.S. would be a place to watch. Also, watch the South Indian and South Pacific for potential cyclones during this time which could affect land, such as Australia or Madagascar. Significant Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this 3-day period is 25 percent, with a 15 percent risk for the disaster to become severe. January 16-19: Most Likely Scenario: Major Winter Storm, possibly accompanied by a Significant Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak, could strike during these dates. Second Likely Scenario: Land-hitting Cyclone in the South Pacific or South Indian Ocean region is also a strong possibility during this period. Third Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe impacts may also hit, especially on January 16th and January 18-19th. The Magnitude could surpass M 7.5. Main Areas to Watch: For the Earthquake: Watch world areas around the Pacific Ring of Fire as well as areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as The Philippines and China. For the Bad Weather: Watch the Northern and Central portions of North America and Europe for potential Major Winter Weather Events, including Blizzards and Ice Storms. Such storms could be accompanied by Severe Weather further south, and should this be the case, the Southern U.S. would be a place to watch. Also, watch the South Indian and South Pacific for potential cyclones during this time which could affect land, such as Australia or Madagascar. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this 3-day period is 30 percent, with a 20 percent risk for the disaster to become severe. January 22-28: Most Likely Scenario: Major Winter Storm, possibly accompanied by a Significant Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak, could strike during these dates. Such storm could become historic due to the nature of these dates, and may be part of a series of winter storms spanning Early January through February. 2nd Possible Scenario: Major Flooding Disaster could occur during this long risk period, with possible causes being heavy rains or snow melts if winter storms do not occur. 3rd Possible Scenario: Major Earthquake with possibly severe to even devastating impacts will be something to watch out for, especially on January 22 - 23 and even more during January 25 and January 27 - 28. The Magnitude could be quite large, perhaps even surpassing M 8.0. 4th Possible Scenario: Land-hitting Cyclone in the South Pacific or South Indian Ocean region is also a strong possibility during this period. Main Areas to Watch: For the Bad Weather: Watch the Northern and Central portions of North America and Europe for potential Major Winter Weather Events, including Blizzards and Ice Storms. Such storms could be accompanied by Severe Weather further south, and should this be the case, the Southern U.S. would be a place to watch. Monitor Southeast Asia for possible flooding rains, as well as areas experiencing rapid snow melts for potential floods. Also, watch the South Indian and South Pacific for potential cyclones during this time which could affect land, such as Australia or Madagascar. For the Earthquake: Watch world areas around the Pacific Ring of Fire as well as areas recently experiencing EQ activity, such as Alaska and Russia. High Risk: The chance for natural disaster during this hefty 7-day period is a whopping 40 percent, with a 30 percent risk for the disaster to become severe. The Month at a Glance January 2014 brings a different style of patterns in the dates that have risk for natural disasters. This month features 4 risk periods that become progressively more intense than the prior, eventually peaking during the last third of the month. You might notice that the Periods of January 7-9 are a slightly less risky version of January 16-19, and how this one is also a less intense version than January 22-28, while having similar possible outcomes. The peak risk date during this whole month is January 27, and the dates around this one should be watched very closely. This January, the periods also become longer, which is something unusual that will become the norm as we press deeper into 2014, and mainly represent the high risk for flooding disaster and other long-time type of natural disasters this coming new year. January could serve as the opening month to what could be a huge natural events year, even when compared to recent years past. 2014 may be a peak year of activity, and January will seem to start slow at first, but then perhaps end with a bang. Winter Storms, Floods and an earthquake or two will probably be the main headline grabbers this month. Overall this month of January 2014, expect another above-normal Month for Natural Disasters despite only having 4 risk periods, although it may not be as bad as November 2013 was hopefully. This month may see 2 to 3 Natural Disasters, with 2 resulting from Winter-Weather, Severe Weather, and/or Southern hemisphere Cyclones. The Other Natural Disaster could very well be the result of a Major Earthquake. Well folks, that's the Rat's take on the 1st month of 2014...make it a safe year! ;-) My blog link will be posted here when up as usual, and updates will be posted here whenever things get wild. |
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