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| Russian economic Aggression | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jul 5 2015, 10:28 PM (72 Views) | |
| Litos | Jul 5 2015, 10:28 PM Post #1 |
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Itō Hirobumi
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Reinhard Silberberg Permanent Representative to the EU The Putin regime is trying to sabotage the European and American economies and create a counterpole to influence despite an immense incapacity to do so. Let us go about revealing his incapacity. Germany moves that we should stop all aid to countries receiving grants from this Russian proxy Asian Development Bank and end all support for any and all deals transferring technology of any kind, medical or industrial to Russia through investment collaboration with our industries. Germany will devise subsidies as the hardest hit country for this kind of measure in our auto industry for companies to move, which, due to sanctions, many already have. Russia, in cutting itself off from the rest of the world, will only slide into backwardsness. We propose a two step plan in which we vote on a public announcement of some form of economic counterattack to take place in several months, then follow up with negotiation for Russia for mutual loosening if the Ukrainian situation subsides. Besides throwing Ukraine under the bus or cutting off our remaining dependence to Russia to avoid them harming our interests, there is no means to save ourselves from the Russian isolation harming our economic interests. |
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| Sadar | Jul 6 2015, 03:09 AM Post #2 |
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Our actions were quite symbolic until recently. This has been a proper aggression. And as such, we should strike back - and harder. Within our power lies the possibility of totally shrinking and collapsing the Russian economy. Putin power relies on oligarchs supporting him. If they want to cut Putin off, they can do it within minutes due to their power. - I recommend to freeze and convert russian oligarchs (all the top 200 richest men in Russian with assets within the EU) currency assets into the national currency (EUR if eurozone, GBP if the UK, etc...) so that we guarantee them not to loose money from the ruble dump - this will turn them against Putin. - Put a ban on Ruble-denominated assets and the ruble CCY on the EU. This will create a massive slump on the Ruble, and the russian central banks has no reserve to face such a critical situation. We specify it as a temporary ban but do not specify and end date. With this, the Russian ruble will be worth peanuts and they wont be able to import anything. A single chicken will cost them relatively to other countries a fortune. - And finally, the golden measure - Global applicability: This Ruble ban within the EU will be applicable to foreign banks operating within the EU for 2 months. -> Implications? All the american and chinese banks operate within the EU. Even though the measure is temporary for 2 months, the whole international financial system will dump the ruble, because holding it during the 2 month non tradable period will lead to the uncertainty of the real value after the 2 month ban. - This is like when the US ban trading with Iran. BNP did it but because it was operating too under US soil, they were heavily fined. Similar case here. A chinese banks wont be able to trade the Ruble anywhere in the world if it any building or office within the EU - which they all do. - The measure can be reverted if Russia withdraws its actions taken against the EU. Final consequences: No international bank will trade the ruble for 2 months. All the banks will dump the ruble as soon as we take this decision. Russia wont be able to import or export anything during 2 months because no broker or bank will take its currency. They will have to use the USD or the EUR if they want to have some sort of link with the international markets. Thus, Russia will have to dump its own ruble in order to import or export! Ruble is going to be absolutely cracked down during 2 months. The cost for the banks is null, as the ruble is irrelevant in the international markets. But the costs for Russia will be massive. The fact that the ban is temporary so far is a relief for the Russian economy as after 2 months normality could come back. But the Ruble and the actual GDP in the short term are going to struggle a lot. What do you think? Russian has hit us hard, lets hit harder and where it hurts - the ruble. |
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| Jos1311 | Jul 6 2015, 05:54 AM Post #3 |
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Head Admin
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Especially the eastern European members are uncertain that it would be wise to retaliate with sanctions, as many fear that it could lead to another period of recession. Various officials also point out that the sanctions have actually strengthened the position of Putin, as has become evident with the presidential elections. Some member states actually feel more for a policy aimed to reduce tension, rather than to increase it. Eastern European members also point at the fact that they will be hit the hardest by any economic conflict with Russia. |
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| Sadar | Jul 6 2015, 08:18 AM Post #4 |
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We offer then direct dialogue with Russia to walk to opposite way. I propose my country, France, to run direct talks with Russia to reduce tensions and walk towards withdrawal of sanctions. Would the EU back former French President Nicolas Sarkozy to represent the EU in "unofficial" talks with Russia? |
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| iceviking | Jul 6 2015, 11:18 AM Post #5 |
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Italy agrees that we should open a dialogue between Europe and Russia. Italy believes that we can reduce tensions and hopefully sort this out before it gets out of hand. |
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| Litos | Jul 6 2015, 07:08 PM Post #6 |
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Itō Hirobumi
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Reinhard Silberberg Permanent Representative to the EU We would support this and believe a deal at Ukraine's expense at this point given the default would be less unpopular with the European people than before. |
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| Longhorn | Jul 6 2015, 07:12 PM Post #7 |
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Timo Soini Finnish Foreign Minister As much as we support this we think there should be some consequences paid by Russia and we are inclined to agree with France suggestion. At the end of the day talking with Russia won't get Crimea returned to Ukraine and it won't get the separatists to completely end their struggle. Russia wins big either way you look at it and I think its time we bite the bullet and force these sanctions through even if Eastern Europe does not have the stomach for it. Finland has even more to lose in this because we are not a NATO power. If Russia wanted they could invade us at the drop of a hat and get away with it just like they have in Ukraine. Thats why we think we should do some sort of sanctions even if they wont be popular here at home. That is what Finland would like to see done. |
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| Sadar | Jul 6 2015, 10:19 PM Post #8 |
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OOC/ 8% of your GDP are imports and exports from and to Russia. Why on earth would you want an economic warfare IIC/ For the time being France acknowledges our economic weapons, but we prone to work towards a solution with Russia. There is a lot at stake and we do not need any further escalation. We will talk to Russia to seek descalation. |
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| Longhorn | Jul 7 2015, 05:07 AM Post #9 |
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Timo Soini Finnish Foreign Minister Will talk prevent Russia from invading Finland next? |
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| Sadar | Jul 7 2015, 11:44 AM Post #10 |
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Yes it will. We need to descalate the situation. |
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