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| Week Ahead Weather – Analysis and Discussion 18th to 22nd August 14 By Matt Hugo. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 17 Aug 2014, 12:12 PM (59 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 17 Aug 2014, 12:12 PM Post #1 |
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Week Ahead Weather – Analysis and Discussion 18th to 22nd August 14 By Matt Hugo. [IMG]Week Ahead Weather – Analysis and Discussion 18th to 22nd August 14 Matt Hugo By Matt Hugo OVERVIEW: The weather this coming week will be dominated by a particularly cool and unseasonal north or north-westerly air mass over many areas of the UK. This air mass will generally be unstable and hence lead to a mixture of sunshine and showers across most areas as the week progresses. Temperatures will be below or locally well below average with some chilly nights expected from Tuesday night onwards. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS: Throughout this coming week low pressure will be dominant to the east and north-east of the UK and higher pressure will dominate to the west and north-west. There is, generally, model-wide agreement for this expected pressure pattern and hence the result is a cool and unstable N or NW’ly air mass over many areas of the UK. Using the 00Z runs of the GFS and the UKMO models to highlight this scenario, I have highlighted where the primary areas of high and low pressure are by mid-week; ![]() This pressure pattern at any time of year will provide a rather showery scenario and that is what is expected this week. Many areas will be at risk of seeing sunshine and showers. As is often the case the showers will be hit and miss, but could be locally heavy at times too. Thunder is possible, but isn’t expected to be a significant or widespread threat this week. There is the potential for showers to organise themselves and bring more peristent rain at times and this is likely due to regions of vorticity moving down from the north-west in asociation with surface troughs. One such feature is expected to move down from the north-west during Tuesday and hence Tuesday may produce not only showers, but some longer spells of rain locally; ![]() The showers are likely to be most frequent across more northern and western areas of the UK this week, but almost anywhere could see a few showers develop. Winds will be fresh or strong to start the week but gradients will ease with time with winds becoming mainly light or moderate, locally fresh from around mid-week onwards. This will have an important impact in terms of temperatures by night with an increasing risk of some particularly chilly nights for the time of year from around Tuesday night onwards. Rural areas of the north in particular may see temperatures fall to between 3C and 6C, generally, towards mid-week which is just about low enough for possible ground frost. The low temperatures are evident within our 00Z 14KM NMM Model and using Wednesday morning as an example; ![]() SUMMARY: The week ahead will provide an almost early taste of autumn weather. Despite feeling pleasant enough in the sunshine towards the middle and latter half of the week as winds become lighter, temperatures will be below or well below average and both early and late it will be particularly chilly, especially from Tuesday onwards. Sunshine and showers will genreally dominate throughout the week, but with a risk of some longer spells of rain in places at times. No significant or disruptive rainfall totals are to be expected really and overall no substantial or severe weather is expected this week. Link ..... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/week-ahead-weather-analysis-discussion-18th-22nd-august-14/#sthash.lKPNrB5e.dpuf Source ................ ![]() |
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9:56 AM Jul 11