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Unsettled weather lasting into September? By Gavin Partridge.
Topic Started: 21 Aug 2014, 01:00 AM (27 Views)
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GAV'S FLASH!

Unsettled weather lasting into September?

Good evening,
The GFS temperature and precipitation ensembles show that the UK is in for a very unsettled spell next week, with multiple, very large rainfall spikes (seen on the bottom of the chart) between 25th to 28th August.

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Temperature lines do lift up in association with this unsettled weather, so the temperatures next week should not be as cold as the temperatures are this week. That said, the temperature ensembles are only lifting up towards the 30 year seasonal average, so we can't expect anything particularly exciting next week, just less cold temperatures than this week.

As we move out towards the start of September we do see signs of something of a drying trend, though notably it never completely dries out and we do keep rainfall spikes going through to the end of the ensemble.

Tonight's GFS operational run bring's the remain's of another Atlantic storm into the north-western Atlantic at 300hrs - Tuesday 2nd September this extra tropical storm get's caught up in the jet stream and arrives at the UK by 384hrs Friday 2nd September

This is at the unreliable end of the GFS model, so we can't take the detail seriously

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but the overall idea that we may bring another ex-hurricane/tropical storm into the northern Atlantic through the first week of September obviously hint's that the unsettled spell (which started with the remains of Ex-tropical storm Bertha earlier in August) could continue into the new month.

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No other model goes out as far as the GFS, but the GEM day ten chart for Saturday 30th August show's a vigorous area of low pressure from the remains of an ex-tropical storm coming out from New Foundland, seemingly caught up in the jet stream. The assumption would be that this low pressure might head into our part of the Atlantic during the first few day's of September.

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The ECMWF day ten chart show's a less intense area of low pressure between Greenland and New Foundland on Saturday 30th August

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Although not as intense as the other two models with the low pressure (which still has ex-tropical remains) this low pressure system still looks as though it may well head out way towards us during the opening part of September.

So on the basis of tonight's models it looks as though the unsettled and relatively cool regime may continue into the start of September.

With hurricanes and tropical storms moving into the North Atlantic as areas of low pressure, early September is always a tricky period to forecast and the models tend to be more unreliable. Early September is typically a quiet, tranquil transition from summer to autumn so an unsettled start to September would be unusual (but certainly not unheard of) Tonight's idea also deviates significantly from yesterday morning's charts which did look quite promising for early September at that point.

More run's are needed and GavsWeatherVids will keep you posted regarding this developing situation.

Gavin Partridge. 20/8/14




Link ................... http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
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