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Mid-week Analysis – Remaining Unsettled,By Matt Hugo - October 8, 2014
Topic Started: 8 Oct 2014, 12:52 PM (56 Views)
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Mid-week Analysis – Remaining Unsettled ............... By Matt Hugo - October 8, 2014 11:29



Mid-week Analysis – Remaining Unsettled



OVERVIEW: The cool and unsettled conditions that have dominated so far this week, due to low pressure, will continue throughout the remainder of Wednesday and indeed throughout the remainder of the week. Further showers, longer spells of rain and possible thunderstorms in places are to be expected. Temporarily windy as well across parts of the south and west of England and Wales which may bring some high tides to coastal areas of the south-west.

ANALYSIS: The upper vortex that I’ve discussed for some time now remains in place over the UK and this is highlighted perfectly by recent water vapour imagery and 500mb heights showing the closed upper level low right over the UK. Of importance on the image is the white speckled pattern on the water vapour image beneath the low pressure just to the west of Ireland. These are intense heavy and, at times, thundery showers and are continuing to feed into the UK on a SW’ly air flow.

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REST of WEDNESDAY: Throughout the rest of today the low pressure will remain in place just to the west of Ireland and as mentioned this will maintain a SW’ly air flow over most of the UK. Further showers and longer spells of rain are to be expected across many areas of England, Wales and Ireland and with a continued risk of some local thunderstorms and hail as well. A more organised band of heavy showers, or longer spells of rain, is expected to swing northwards across Wales, Midlands and into N England during the middle and latter half of the afternoon bringing some poor conditions for the evening rush hour in places. The 3KM HRES model highlights this process well at around 1700 today.

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THURSDAY and FRIDAY: During the remainder of the week low pressure that is currently situated to the west of Ireland will move eastwards and become located essentially directly over the UK. As a result of this synoptic evolution further unsettled conditions are to be expected to end the week. Quite a messy picture is expected in terms of precipitation still with some drier and brighter intervals developing, but equally there will be a continued risk of some heavy showers, longer spells of rain and perhaps some scattered thunderstorms too. The 10KM model highlights this synoptic evolution well with the below image showing the expected pressure and precipitation towards the end of Thursday and I’ve noted where the surface low pressure will be.

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One noticeable feature for a time into Thursday will be the development of quite a strong W or SW’ly wind across parts of SW England and Wales. This increase in wind speed on the southern flank of the low pressure will combine with quite high tides later today and into Thursday to bring the risk of some localised flooding to coastal areas of the south-west of the UK in particular. The low pressure is expected to be passing over Ireland at this time and you can see on the 3KM HRES model how winds are particularly light across Ireland (beneath the low pressure), but just immediately ahead of the low pressure and also to the south of it wind gusts may well reach up to 40mph to 50mph around the coasts of Wales and SW England and hence this risk of some coastal flooding.

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TEMPERATURES: Temperatures through the rest of the week will be slightly higher than earlier in the week of which was actually quite cold in a few places with temperatures below average for early October. Overall maximum temperatures are forecast to range between 12°C and 17°C with the highest max temperatures being recorded across parts of the south and south-east of England. It will continue to feel quite cool, or rather cold, in the wind and rain in particular. Temperatures by night will continue to fall into single figures across inland areas, especially where skies clear and lows ranging between 6°C and 10°C are expected generally and an example of the expected maximum and minimum temperatures can be seen on the below images.

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SUMMARY: Low pressure continues to dominate and maintains the unsettled conditions across many areas with showers and longer spells of rain at times, some of which could be heavy and with an on-going risk of some thunderstorms too. Temperatures near to average, feeling milder than earlier in the week in any brighter intervals, but equally remaining cool/cold in any persistent rain/showers and strong winds.



Source Info: eumetrain.org




Link ................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/mid-week-analysis-remaining-unsettled/#sthash.IdfvNPsO.dpuf
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