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| Unsettled for the foreseeable future By Gavin Partridge. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 13 Oct 2014, 08:56 PM (22 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 13 Oct 2014, 08:56 PM Post #1 |
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Unsettled for the foreseeable future Good evening After a cold, wet and windy Monday we can be left in little doubt that autumn 2014 has well and truly arrived. The CET [ http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html ] for October 2014 is currently running ever so slightly below the 61-90 average. Rainfall was already above average before today and will be well above average after Monday's heavy rain. Tonight's 12z models indicate that unsettled weather is probably in for much of the remainder of October, all-be-it with temperatures getting a boost for a time at the end of the week and the start of next week. This is tonight's GEFS 12z ensemble chart which you can also see here [ http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx ] ![]() We can see from the temperature lines in the middle of the chart that temperatures are forecast to steadily increase until around 20th October when they should drop back towards the long term mid to late October average. We can see from the precipitation spikes on the bottom of the chart that rainfall is likely throughout the next couple of weeks. And certainly no sign of a particularly dry spell in the next week to ten day's This is this evening's GFS 168hr chart showing a very flat westerly flow with area's of low pressure queuing up in the Atlantic waiting to bring further bouts of wind and rain through the country on Monday 20th October. ![]() Day ten - Thursday 23rd October - Shows more areas of low pressure coming through the Atlantic keeping it very unsettled with showers and spells of prolonged rain likely. ![]() The ECMWF day ten chart is very similar to the GFS with low pressure firmly through north-west Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. There's probably no quick escape from low pressure from that chart. ![]() The GEM day ten chart round off a very unsettled set of models this evening. High pressure is trying to throw a ridge into the south but the next area of low pressure is sitting to the west of Ireland waiting to bring the next bout of rain and gales. ![]() Of note is that there's a very deep trough over Scandinavia, bringing cold air down to much of Scandinavia and north-east England. So all in all a very unsettled set of charts. Temperatures will hold up OK - Though next week looks cooler than the weekend - But it seem's we're in a very unsettled pattern now and likely to be so for some time. We'll keep looking for the break in the unsettled pattern and as ever GavsWeatherVids will keep you posted. Gavin Partridge. 12/10/14 Link .............. http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html |
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8:09 PM Jul 11