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Mid-Week Analysis – Increasingly Unsettled By Matt Hugo - October 15, 2014
Topic Started: 15 Oct 2014, 10:10 PM (21 Views)
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Mid-Week Analysis – Increasingly Unsettled
By Matt Hugo - October 15, 2014




OVERVIEW: The weather is expected to become increasingly unsettled through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will signal the start of quite a sustained spell of unsettled weather across the UK not only the coming days but also the coming weeks as well. Many areas are at risk of seeing rain and showers in the days ahead and despite a rise in temperatures; this will be offset somewhat by the increasingly unsettled conditions.

ANALYSIS: Throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend an upper vortex (low pressure) will remain in situ to the west of the UK and produce increasingly unsettled conditions across many areas and this is highlighted well on water vapour imagery.

Posted Image

1) The surface low pressure and upper vortex is highlighted here and is dominant to the west of the UK and will remain there for the next few days. A secondary area of low pressure is forecast to move out of E Canada in the next few days as well but this low pressure will become amalgamated with the above low pressure to essentially lead to one, primary, area of low pressure. The position of the low pressure will be as such that it will allow for the development of an increasingly mild and moist south-westerly air mass over the UK, so a rise in temperatures is to be expected. However, this rise will be offset by the increasingly unsettled conditions.

The secondary area of low pressure is highlighted on the below charts. Initially in the far western Atlantic (left image) it becomes ‘swallowed up’ essentially by the larger low pressure that is already present, but it helps to reinforce the unsettled and cyclonic spell of weather that is forecast to develop through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Also highlighted by the red arrow, is the warmer and moist SW’ly air mass that will develop as well.

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THURSDAY: Thursday is expected to be a day of sunshine and showers, but with the risk of longer spells of rain developing across more western areas of the UK as the showers merge at times. The 10KM model highlights this evolution well and I’ve highlighted where the primary area of low pressure is and as can be seen it is to the west of Ireland. As a result an increasingly mild S or SW’ly air mass is forecast to develop across the UK through the day with showers moving northwards. There is likely to be a significant amount of instability present within the atmosphere too and as a result some of the showers could be heavy with a risk of thundery downpours, of which may bring some localised surface water flooding and poor driving conditions as well.

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The areas at primary risk of some thunderstorms and downpours through Thursday is forecast to be across Ireland, Wales, SW England, Midlands, S England and eventually up into N England and S Scotland. The below forecast graphic highlights the areas of greatest instability (CAPE) well.

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FRIDAY: Into Friday and whilst the day may well start dry with some bright or sunny spells, increasingly wet and windy conditions will develop. As I discussed earlier a secondary area of low pressure is forecast to become amalgamated with a larger area of low pressure already present. This process will allow for the development of some active weather fronts to move into the UK from the west through the day. As a result more eastern areas of the UK will experience some dry and bright weather, but further west it will become increasingly wet and windy and these unsettled conditions will eventually make progress further north and east later in the day on Friday and overnight into Saturday. This scenario is highlighted well by the 10KM for the evening period on Friday.

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TEMPERATURES: As I mentioned earlier the position of the low pressure to the west of the UK will allow for an increasingly mild, if not warm and humid S or SW’ly air mass to develop. As a result temperatures through the rest of the week will be on the rise and it will feel milder than compared with earlier in the week. However, given that the weather will be far from settled the wet and windy conditions will offset this rise in temperatures somewhat. The GFS model highlights the expected maximum temperatures for both Thursday and Friday well with perhaps temperatures reaching 18°C or 19°C across parts of the south-east of England by Friday. Overnight temperatures will also be particularly high as well, especially when compared with earlier in the week.

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SUMMARY: Increasingly unsettled through the rest of the week despite some drier and brighter weather at times. Showery on Thursday for most areas, these often heavy with thunderstorms and downpours across more western areas of the UK in particular. Into Friday and whilst some dry and bright weather is likely across more eastern areas of the UK conditions will be turning increasingly wet and windy in the west and these conditions then spreading eastwards through the day and overnight into Saturday.



Source Info: eumetrain.org | mag.ncep.noaa.gov




Link ................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/mid-week-analysis-increasingly-unsettled/#sthash.Tyo3VhcM.dpuf
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