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Hurricane Gonzalo – UK Bound? By Matt Hugo - October 16, 2014
Topic Started: 16 Oct 2014, 02:18 PM (20 Views)
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Hurricane Gonzalo – UK Bound?
By Matt Hugo - October 16, 2014 12:59

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Firstly, let’s highlight an important fact…

Hurricanes cannot affect the UK. Hurricanes need warm ocean waters to be able to develop and ‘survive’ and given the location of the UK this is just simply not possible. October and November are both months when the Atlantic Hurricane Season often reaches its peak. Hurricanes often develop off the west coast of Africa, track westwards towards the Caribbean and the United States of America and then, more often than not, curve northwards and enter into the North Atlantic. When this takes place the hurricane under-goes what is known as extra-tropical transition and the remnants of the hurricane can develop into the well-known North Atlantic depressions and low pressure systems that affect the UK during autumn. This process takes place because the sea temperatures are obviously colder within the North Atlantic than compared with the tropical Atlantic where hurricanes develop. So, it is essentially the remnants of hurricanes that can reach the UK rather than hurricanes themselves.

The below is a recent satellite image of Hurricane Gonzalo which is currently located well to the east of Florida over open waters. This hurricane is a particularly powerful hurricane mind with wind speeds currently near 130mph with higher gusts and this is one of the strongest hurricanes to develop within the tropical Atlantic in a number of years.

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The processes which is highlighted above, regarding hurricanes curving northwards and entering in the North Atlantic, is forecast to happen with this particular hurricane in the coming days and this is highlighted well by the forecast graphic from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The red circle is the approximate location as to when the hurricane will under-go extra-tropical transition and no longer be a hurricane. Looking at the below image it does look as though the hurricane will head straight towards the UK, but clearly the important piece of information to remember here is that whilst it is a hurricane now, it won’t be by the time it reaches the UK.

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The interesting aspect is that when the remnants of the hurricane enter into the North Atlantic they can be ‘picked up’ by the jet stream and developed into a powerful North Atlantic depression. However, and using an analogy, like a surfer trying to catch a wave, if the surfer misses the wave then he doesn’t get very far. However, if the surfer catches the wave then he is propelled forward and the principle is the same here. If the remnants of the hurricane get picked up by the jet stream then it can approach the UK as a deep area of low pressure bringing heavy rain and gales, equally the opposite may happen. At the moment the weather models are undecided as to what will happen in this case, but the current thinking is that the remnants of Gonzalo will bring some wet and windy weather around next Tuesday but without bringing any severe weather in terms of severe gales and the likes.

As ever any news and information regarding this development we’ll keep you posted here at UK Weather Forecast, but despite some of the stories in the press don’t expect a catastrophic storm of immense proportions next week.



Chief Forecaster: MH.





Source ......................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/hurricane-gonzalo-uk-bound/#sthash.PaWlF6Fv.dpuf
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