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Weekend Analysis – Wet and Windy, Very Mild. By Matt Hugo - October 17, 2014
Topic Started: 17 Oct 2014, 02:25 PM (68 Views)
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Weekend Analysis – Wet and Windy, Very Mild... By Matt Hugo - October 17, 2014 10:47

By Matt Hugo - October 17, 2014 10:4




OVERVIEW: Low pressure situated to the west and north-west of the UK will dominate the weather throughout the weekend and bring a fairly typical spell of wet and windy October weather. Of some interest will be the high temperatures that are expected, especially so across England and Wales on Saturday with temperatures well above average. It will turn cooler and fresher from the west during Sunday but even then temperatures are likely to remain slightly above average.

ANALYSIS: A broad upper vortex and surface low pressure has dominated to the west of the UK for some days now and that scenario remains the same for the remainder of Friday and through into Saturday. The main upper vortex and a developing surface low pressure are highlighted well on recent water vapour imagery.

Posted Image

1) This is the upper vortex and surface low pressure that is dominating to the west of the UK. The particularly white coloured cloud is associated with a set of active frontal systems that are tied in with a developing area of low pressure at the surface. These frontal systems are forecast to move across the UK during the overnight period and into Saturday. Note how the pressure lines (green lines) stretch all the way back down towards the Azores and this is highlighting the very mild and moist SW’ly air mass that is developing ahead of the low pressure.

REST of FRIDAY: A minor ridge of high pressure is expected across more eastern areas of the UK through the remainder of Friday and as a result this will maintain mainly dry and settled conditions with some bright or sunny spells. However, attention is turned towards the approaching frontal systems and low pressure to the west which will bring increasingly wet and windy conditions into Ireland this afternoon before then spreading north and east overnight bringing spells of heavy rain, showers and some strong winds as well. This general scenario is highlighted well by the 10KM model for midnight tonight.

[IMG]http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/modelanalysis110-800x434.png[/IMG

The frontal systems will bring up to 20mm to 30mm of rain across some western areas especially across upland areas exposed to a S or SW’ly wind. As you can see even by late tonight more northern and eastern areas of the UK are still dry, but clearly that won’t last forever as the wet and windy weather reaches here into the early hours of Saturday morning. The winds associated with this wet weather will likely gust up to 40mph to 50mph generally, especially around coasts and hills, but may well reach up to 60mph across some parts of Ireland, W Scotland and areas bordering the Irish Sea.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY: Into Saturday and the low pressure remains dominant to the west of the UK, but through the weekend this will begin to track towards the north-west and even north of the UK as the upper vortex, associated with the surface low pressure begins to move away. The frontal systems that are forecast to move into the UK overnight will become slow moving across parts of the south and south-east of England leading to a rather cloudy and damp day across southern and south-eastern areas of England and East Anglia, but without producing any significant or heavy rainfall. Following on behind the fronts will be a blustery south-westerly air mass which will spread showers into Scotland, Ireland, N England, Wales and SW England through the day. This process of the upper vortex tracking more to the north of the UK and frontal systems becoming slow moving over the south-east and with showers following is highlighted on the below graphics.

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Posted Image

As the upper vortex and surface low pressure begin to track to the north of the UK, as evident on the image above for midday on Sunday, the wind will veer to more of a west or south-westerly wind direction through Sunday. This will help the front across the south-east of England to clear away and then many areas of the UK will see a mixture of sunshine and showers during Sunday. The showers will be most frequent and heaviest across areas closest to the low pressure tracking to the north and north-west. As a result, Scotland, Ireland and N England will see most showers and it is across here that another windy day is expected with a fresh or strong west or south-westerly wind. Further south, especially across central and southern areas of England and Wales the showers will be more scattered with bright or sunny spells and this is highlighted well by the 10KM model for the middle of the afternoon on Sunday.

Posted Image

TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this weekend will be a talking point. As I highlighted at the start of the discussion the position of the low pressure to the west of the UK will allow for a very mild and moist SW’ly air mass to develop across the UK, especially on Saturday with temperatures well above average. The change in wind direction during Sunday to more of a W or SW’ly will introduce some cooler and fresher conditions across Scotland, Ireland and N England, but even then temperatures will remain slightly above average. The expected maximum temperatures are highlighted well by the GFS model for the middle of the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday with highs ranging between 15°C and 20°C generally on Saturday across England and Wales and between 14°C and 18°C on Sunday. Temperatures across Scotland and Ireland ranging between 14°C and 18°C on Saturday, but notice the drop in temperatures during Sunday with highs ranging between 11°C and 15°C generally across more northern and western areas. It should also be noted that a very mild night is expected tonight into Saturday with temperatures remaining in ‘double figures’ (>10C) across many areas.

Posted Image

SUMMARY: Wet and windy weather spreading eastwards across many areas through Friday evening and overnight into Saturday with some heavy rain at times, especially across more northern and western areas of the UK and here strong winds are expected too. Into Saturday and precipitation lingers across SE England, whilst elsewhere it is a mixture of sunshine and showers. Sunshine and showers then develop across many areas during Sunday, but especially so for more northern and western areas where it will remain windy. Very mild for all areas on Saturday, fresher across northern and western areas by Sunday, still very mild in the south and south-east though.



Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org | mag.ncep.noaa.gv



Link ................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/weekend-analysis-wet-windy-mild/#sthash.2pRSPQ0z.dpuf
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