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Mid-Week Analysis – Further Rain and Showers. By Matt Hugo - October 22, 201
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2014, 02:31 PM (63 Views)
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Mid-Week Analysis – Further Rain and Showers. By Matt Hugo - October 22, 2014 10:33



Mid-Week Analysis – Further Rain and Showers

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OVERVIEW: The pattern through the end of the week will be that of an unsettled one and as a result further rain and showers are expected at times across the UK. Some of the heaviest and most persistent of the rain and showers is expected to be across Scotland, Ireland and N England, but during Friday some more significant rain may affect some central and southern areas for a time.

ANALYSIS: After the wet and windy weather on Tuesday, brought about by the remnants of hurricane Gonzalo, the weather patterns during the remainder of the week will be quite typical for the time of year. Water vapour imagery highlights the broader features of interest and the low pressure that brought our wet and windy weather yesterday is now over Central Europe. However, region (1) is highlighted because this is a rather zonal (west to east) flow that is developing across the North Atlantic and this is what will bring the rather unsettled conditions on a W or SW’ly air mass during the remainder of the week. This rather zonal pattern is also highlighted well on the second image below showing the jet stream into Thursday.

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REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY: Through the remainder of Wednesday the developing zonal jet stream will be directly associated with low pressure to the north and north-west of the UK. Frontal zones associated with this low pressure are expected to move across many northern and western areas of the UK bringing outbreaks of rain to Scotland, Ireland and N England in particular through the remainder of the day. Mainly dry conditions are likely to continue across more southern areas of the UK, but even here it will become quite cloudy. It’s likely to feel quite chilly still today, but a warmer air mass is developing from the west. The scenario for the remainder of today is highlighted well by the 10KM model.

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THURSDAY and FRIDAY: During the remainder of the week a general west or south-westerly air mass is expected across the UK and this will maintain a risk of showers and longer spells of rain. During Thursday further frontal zones will affect the UK bringing mostly cloudy conditions to many areas with outbreaks of rain or showers at times. Once again Scotland, Ireland and N England are at greatest risk through Thursday, but anywhere exposed to the west or south-westerly air mass may see some precipitation at times, so this includes Wales and SW England too. This scenario is highlighted well on the 10KM model (left image) and overall quite a cloudy and damp day is to be expected for most areas during Thursday. During Friday a frontal wave is expected to develop along a trailing cold front across central areas of England and Wales. What this will do is bring a zone of mostly cloudy conditions with more persistent rain to parts of SW England, Wales, Midlands and S England in general through Friday before clearing away to the east later in the day. For Scotland, Ireland and eventually N England a cool, if not rather chilly day is expected, but with a simple mixture of sunshine and showers and this scenario too, is highlighted well on the 10KM model (right image).

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TEMPERATURES: Temperatures through the remainder of the week will generally be near to average, but across England and Wales it will feel milder than the last few days. Overall a general north and south divide in temperatures is to be expected with quite cool, if not rather chilly conditions expected across Scotland, Ireland and on Friday N England too. For the rest of England and Wales temperatures will be milder and range between 14°C and 18°C but ranging between 10°C and 14°C further north and west. This general north and south divide is particularly evident by Friday and note the rather cool/chilly temperatures in the north compared with further south from the GFS model below.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org | mag.ncep.noaa.gov





Link ........................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/mid-week-analysis-rain-showers/#sthash.7RFgVtYG.dpuf
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