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| Week Ahead Analysis – Cold and Unsettled By Matt Hugo - November 3, 2014 | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 3 Nov 2014, 07:51 PM (58 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 3 Nov 2014, 07:51 PM Post #1 |
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Week Ahead Analysis – Cold and Unsettled. By Matt Hugo - November 3, 2014 09:00![]() Week Ahead Analysis – Cold and Unsettled OVERVIEW: After the late warmth at the end of October the coming full opening week of November will provide far more typical conditions for the time of year. Low pressure will generally be the dominant feature, but with Wednesday (Bonfire Night) providing a window of drier weather. Either side of Wednesday it is looking unsettled with rain and showers and temperatures will be much nearer to average than of late. ANALYSIS: Starting with a look at the broader synoptic patterns at the moment and of which will influence the weather within the short term… ![]() 1) This region is an area of low pressure at the surface which is being supported by an upper level vortex and will dominate the weather over the UK. A large upper trough extends from the south of Greenland down and across the UK and with the vortex in the base of this upper trough. This feature will remain place for the next few days to bring a mixture of sunshine and showers across many areas of the UK. It isn’t until later in the week that this feature declines to allow a more mobile pattern to become established and of which will introduce wet and windy weather from the west. This broader upper trough is highlighted well on the below graphic showing the location of the jet stream and I’ve highlighted the upper trough with the low pressure within the base of it. ![]() MONDAY and TUESDAY: With this upper vortex and trough in place the week is expected to start showery. The showers may well merge to give longer spells of rain at times, but equally in-between the showers some lengthy drier and brighter conditions are to be expected. The 3KM HRES model highlights the situation well for both Monday and Tuesday afternoon with the main area of low pressure initially across Ireland today (Monday) before then transferring and becoming located over in the N Sea during Tuesday. This progression will signal the introduction of a N or NW’ly air mass during Tuesday as well which will signal quite chilly conditions. The area of low pressure has been highlighted by the letter ‘L’ ![]() WEDNESDAY: As the upper trough and surface low pressure continues to clear away into the North Sea during Wednesday this will then signal a window of better weather on Bonfire Night. As a result with the exception of a few residual showers and some patchy rain across England and Wales at first Wednesday is expected to become increasingly fine and settled across many areas with bright or sunny spells. The N or NW’ly air mass that develops on Tuesday will have led to quite a cold air mass becoming situated over the UK by Wednesday so despite the sunshine it will be quite a chilly day. Given the combination of light winds and clear skies by the end of Wednesday temperatures are forecast to fall away quite rapidly on Wednesday evening and overnight on Wednesday for most of Scotland, Wales and England will provide the right conditions for the first widespread frost of the season overnight and into Thursday morning. The scenario for Wednesday is highlighted well by the 10KM model, with the low pressure highlighted to the east and a minor ridge of high pressure building in from the west and south-west. ![]() THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The week is expected to end unsettled. A cold and frosty start is expected on Thursday morning across many areas with the exception of Ireland, here increasingly wet and windy weather is expected to develop. As Thursday progresses this wet and windy weather is then forecast to spread eastwards across all areas throughout the day as a more mobile jet stream pattern becomes established and allows surface low pressure and weather fronts to spread eastwards. As a result for many areas of the UK Thursday will start cold and frosty but end up wet and windy. Into Friday and at the moment early rain in the east is expected to clear and then leave behind it a chilly and unsettled W or SW’ly air mass with a mixture of sunshine and showers and longer spells of rain. The 10KM model highlights the scenario well for Thursday with active frontal system heading eastwards and notice on the jet stream chart (below) how a more west to east (zonal) orientation to the jet stream develops and this allows the wet and windy weather to move into the UK off the Atlantic. ![]() TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this week, as I mentioned at the beginning of the analysis, will be much nearer to average. Overall maximum temperatures ranging between 8C and 12C is to be expected, but locally up to 12C to 15C across urban areas of the SE of England at times. Clearly compared with of late this will lead to a cooler, if not colder feeling week especially in any showers. Overnight temperatures will widely fall into single figures this week and with Wednesday night most certainly being the coldest night of the week and of the season with a widespread frost across many inland areas by Thursday morning. The general maximum temperatures this week are highlighted well by using the temperatures on Tuesday and also find the expected current temperatures by Thursday morning, of which highlights the cold start. ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org | mag.ncep.noaa.gov Link ................ http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/week-ahead-analysis-cold-unsettled/#sthash.yf6WaPf6.dpuf Source ..............
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8:08 PM Jul 11