Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Welcome to Natural Hazards Forum. We hope you enjoy your visit.


You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as customizing your profile, sending personal messages, and voting in polls. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free.


Join our community!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
A Medley of March Weather By Matt Hugo - March 22, 2015.
Topic Started: 22 Mar 2015, 03:39 PM (21 Views)
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar

A Medley of March Weather By Matt Hugo - March 22, 2015.




Posted Image



OVERVIEW: The coming week will provide quite a variety of conditions across the UK in what is a rather typical late March week of weather. Anything from some pleasant spring sunshine to heavy, thundery showers are possible at times this week in what will be a very varied week of weather. There are some uncertainties over the details of the weather for late in the week, given the changeable conditions, but, as ever, we’ll keep you frequently updated through the week.

ANALYSIS:

Posted Image

1) The fine and settled conditions of late and through this week have been directly associated with this feature, of which is an area of high pressure across the UK. This has maintained predominantly fine weather across all areas throughout the weekend with some pleasant spells of sunshine in places. The high pressure is set to decline to the south of the UK into the new working week and this will signal a change in conditions.

2) This is a developing area of low pressure to the north-west of the UK and of which will pass to the north of the UK overnight and into Monday. A cold front associated with this low pressure will move down across the UK overnight and through into Monday which will signal a drop in temperatures and a rather cold start to the week and this then sets the scene for a rather chilly week ahead overall.

MONDAY: As we move into Monday and the cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure will be lying across parts of Wales and N England bringing some patchy rain and drizzle. No significant of widespread rain is expected along this weather front and it will bring nothing more than some patchy rain or drizzle and mostly cloudy conditions. However, as the name implies, it is a cold front and behind it colder air, from the north-west, will then filter down across the UK to start the week.

Using the 3KM model below note the cold front lying across parts of Wales and up into N England at 0900Z on Monday, clearly a weak feature. For most of central and southern England Monday starts chilly but dry with some bright or sunny spells. As Monday progresses the weather front continues to move SE but becomes an insignificant feature with little or no rain reaching SE England for example. Following on behind across Scotland and Ireland will be showery conditions as the model highlights. Equally note as well the drop in 850mb temperatures by the end of Monday across the north and west of the UK with values below -5C (remember that 850mb temperatures can be used to gauge the risk of wintry precipitation and values below -5C often signal a risk of wintry precipitation) and a subsequent risk of wintry precipitation as the preciptype image shows.

Posted Image

Posted Image

TUESDAY: As we move on into Tuesday it will be a chilly start given that a cold air mass will now be in place over the UK, so some frost is possible to start Tuesday but with some bright or sunny spells too. As Tuesday progresses the day will produce a simple mixture of sunshine and showers. Given the time of year now the increasingly ‘strong’ sun will help to provide the energy for some particularly heavy and perhaps thundery showers through Tuesday afternoon along with a risk of hail and perhaps some sleet and wet snow on high (>250m) ground. As usual the showers will be ‘hit and miss’ and not everywhere will see them, but there is certainly scope for some lively and heavy downpours in places during the course of Tuesday afternoon but the showers gradually ease into the evening and this will then be followed by another cold night with a widespread frost on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The 10KM model and the GFS models highlight the showery conditions into Tuesday afternoon and the CAPE and LI chart places emphasis on inland areas of England and Wales (darker blue colours) at risk of seeing the heaviest showers on Tuesday afternoon.

Posted Image

WEDNESDAY: As we move into Wednesday it is another cold start with a fairly widespread frost across the UK and with temperatures, potentially, well below freezing so this is something for gardeners to be aware of in particular. Mid-week sees a ridge of high pressure build into the UK from the west, so in-keeping with the changeable theme after some heavy and thundery downpours on Tuesday, Wednesday provides a day of mainly dry conditions across many areas with bright or sunny spells. Given light winds across the country then in the sunshine during the afternoon it will feel pleasant, but overall temperatures will still be slightly below average for late March. The GFS model highlights this situation well and note for most of the UK, through Wednesday, many areas are dry and clear. However, note the next batch of rain moving into Ireland by the middle of the afternoon onwards and this is what will then bring a further change in the weather during the end of the week.

Posted Image

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: There are some uncertainties over the details for the end of the week at this stage; this is primarily due to the fact that the highly changeable conditions will continue. However, Thursday is expected to start wet across many western areas of the UK as a weather front moves in off the Atlantic and this will then slowly progress eastwards through the day to bring some heavy rain and showers. The rain may well not reach eastern England and Scotland until late in the day before a clearance to drier weather then develops later in the day and overnight into Friday. As a result another cold start is possible on Friday as well with frost, before yet further wet weather moves in off the Atlantic to bring a wet and perhaps windy end to the week, but again details of this remain uncertain and problematic for now. The GFS model highlights this general evolution and note the wet weather heading eastwards on Thursday before further wet weather develops by Friday.

Posted Image

TEMPERATURES: Overall through the course of this week temperatures will be slightly below or below average and it will feel quite cold for late March, especially so in any wet weather and both early and late each day. There will be a persistent risk of frost throughout the week and with perhaps Tuesday night into Wednesday morning providing the lowest temperatures when sub-zero temperatures may well occur quite widely. Overall maximum temperatures are likely to range between 6C and 10C, though perhaps just 4C or 5C across higher elevations of N England and Scotland early in the week, whilst equally the week may well end milder for parts of the south with temperatures up to 11C to 13C but remaining colder in the north. The GFS model, below, highlights the maximum temperatures expected on Monday, Wednesday and Friday to give an idea of the likely temperatures through the week and I’ve also highlighted the minimum temperatures into Wednesday morning which clearly shows a cold and frosty start for many areas.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



Link ....................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-medley-of-march-weather/



Source .................. Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
« Previous Topic · Weather chat · Next Topic »
Add Reply

Skin by OverTheBelow