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| A Chilly and Wet end to March By Matt Hugo - March 29, 2015. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 29 Mar 2015, 01:24 PM (69 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 29 Mar 2015, 01:24 PM Post #1 |
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A Chilly and Wet end to March By Matt Hugo - March 29, 2015 12:07.![]() OVERVIEW: The final few days of March and into early April will, generally, be dominated by low pressure and hence unsettled conditions. Despite some drier and brighter intervals at times through the week, the overall theme is for an unsettled week ahead with some heavy rain and showers and it will also be quite cold too for late March and early April, especially across more northern areas of the UK. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) The mass of white on recent satellite imagery highlights a series of weather fronts and low pressure systems to the west of the UK which will move across the UK to start the new working week. One such developing low pressure system will bring a particularly wet and windy day during Monday and overnight into Tuesday across a large portion of the UK. MONDAY: Into Monday and it is quite a dry start with some bright or sunny spells, especially across eastern areas of England. However, the aforementioned low pressure system will move into the UK from the west during the day and this will spread cloud, wind and rain across all areas of the UK through Monday afternoon, evening and into the overnight period. The GFS model highlights this evolution well and note on the below images how after a dry start to Monday across most areas, outbreaks of rain then develop from the west during the afternoon onwards. ![]() By Monday evening many areas of the UK will be wet with outbreaks of moderate and heavy rain continuing to spread eastwards, this will, as a result, lead to some rather poor driving conditions for the Monday evening rush hour due to excessive amounts of surface water and spray. A fresh or strong, locally near gale force west or south-westerly wind will also develop through the afternoon, to the south of the low pressure that will move across Scotland. Following into the evening will then be a particularly strong and gusty NW’ly wind as the low pressure begins to pull away into the North Sea. ![]() TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY: At the moment both Tuesday and Wednesday can be grouped together because both days will produce quite similar conditions. As Monday’s low pressure system clears away to the east and north-east of the UK a NW’ly wind will develop and persist over both days, but especially during Tuesday. This will bring a mixture of sunshine and scattered showers to many areas of the UK on both days, but with emphasis on the most frequent and heaviest showers occurring on Tuesday. As is often the case the showers will be ‘hit and miss’ but where they do develop they could be heavy with a rumble of thunder, perhaps some hail and it will be cold enough for some sleet and wet snow across higher ground of Scotland and N England for example. The showers into Wednesday will start to become more scattered and generally lighter and there is reasonable confidence to suggest that Wednesday afternoon, with the exception of some scattered showers, will be predominantly dry and bright with some sunny spells. The 10KM model highlights this situation well and note the general NW’ly wind over the UK of which will make for quite a chilly feel. Equally note the precipitation type chart as well with a clear signal for the risk of some wintry precipitation across more northern areas of the UK by the end of Tuesday and this highlights what will be quite a chilly if not cold-feeling few days. ![]() THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The week is expected to end generally unsettled as well. There are some uncertainties over the details given that quite a complex weather pattern may well evolve, but after what may well be a mainly dry start to Thursday, especially in the north and west, will generally become increasingly wet from the west through the day. Parts of Ireland, Wales and SW England could well start the day wet and these wet conditions will progress further north and east but may not reach Scotland until very late in the day. The 10KM model highlights this current expected evolution well and note the wet weather to start Thursday across more southern and western areas, whilst it’s drier further north and east, but with many areas generally ending the day wet with rain or showers, perhaps with the exception of Scotland. ![]() Into Friday and the low pressure that is responsible for producing the rain during Thursday may well become slow moving over parts of the UK and hence, particularly away from Scotland another unsettled day is likely with outbreaks of rain or showers, especially through Central areas of the UK. Also there are some signs that sleet and snow may develop on the northern flank of this area of rain and showers, given that milder weather develops to the south of it, but across Northern England and into Scotland, as the GFS model below highlights, temperatures could be particularly depressed with perhaps some wintry precipitation. Clearly these kind of details remain uncertain for now, but as ever will be discussed in more detail as the week progresses, but overall the unsettled regime is likely to continue to end the week. ![]() TEMPERATURES: There will be some variation in temperatures this week, especially depending on where you are located within the UK with parts of Ireland, Wales and southern areas of England experiencing some milder conditions at times with temperatures reaching near average values for late March and early April. However, and overall, temperatures will be slightly below or even below average at times this week especially across northern areas of the UK. The NW’ly wind on Tuesday and Wednesday will create quite a significant wind-chill factor so it’ll feel colder on Tuesday and Wednesday in particular. The GFS model highlights the current expected maximum temperatures on Monday, Wednesday and Friday to give an idea as to the expected temperatures through the week and note the variations in temperatures across parts of the UK. Some frost is possible at times too, particularly around the middle of the week but given the predominantly unsettled conditions then no widespread frost is likely. ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link .................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-chilly-and-wet-end-to-march/ Source ................... ![]() Edited by Audi-Tek, 29 Mar 2015, 01:35 PM.
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