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April Showers and Spells of Rain By Matt Hugo - April 1, 2015 .
Topic Started: 1 Apr 2015, 07:01 PM (42 Views)
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April Showers and Spells of Rain By Matt Hugo - April 1, 2015




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OVERVIEW: The end of the week will generally produce similar weather conditions that have dominated the week overall and that is for further unsettled conditions to be in evidence along with quite depressed temperatures. The start of the Easter weekend is likely to be met with some rain, potentially heavy rain for a time, but there remains high confidence for improving conditions thereafter.

ANALYSIS:

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1) There’s just one primary region of interest at the moment on satellite imagery and that is the large white mass of cloud to the west of the UK. This is, essentially, a series of weather fronts that will continue to move into the UK through the end of the week to bring further unsettled conditions. The speed at which these systems move into the UK will be quite slow and, as a result, this will signal that some dry weather ahead of them is possible for a time.

THURSDAY: Overnight outbreaks of rain and drizzle are expected across parts of the south and west of the UK with many southern areas of England and Wale starting Thursday overcast and damp along with some low cloud as well. These grey and damp conditions will extend further west across most areas of Ireland too. In contrast though many areas of N England and Scotland will start the day dry with some bright or sunny spells, but it will be cold with a frost and some icy patches to start the day here. As the day progresses weather fronts will slowly move into the UK off the Atlantic but as mentioned above the speed at which this is expected to take place means that for most of Scotland and down eastern areas of England then the majority of Thursday will be dry with some bright or sunny spells. In contrast many western areas of the UK including; Ireland, Wales, S and SW England will be mostly cloudy and damp with low cloud, rain or drizzle. It won’t be until late in the day that these grey and damp conditions move further east to affect all areas.

The 3KM model highlights this evolution well. Note the mainly dry, but cold start for many northern and eastern areas. Thereafter, note how the outbreaks of rain in the west develop and begin to slowly move eastwards but with many eastern areas of the UK remaining dry until the end of the day.

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GOOD FRIDAY: The weather fronts bringing outbreaks of rain and drizzle overnight on Thursday will be in evidence across many areas during Friday morning, which will signal a wet start to the Easter Weekend and Good Friday. Low pressure and the weather fronts will slowly move across the UK through the course of the day before clearing to the south-east of the UK by late Friday. So, this will mean a particularly poor start to Good Friday with overcast conditions and with outbreaks of rain. Gradually any persistent rain will slowly clear away to the south and east of the UK but perhaps not clearing E England and SE England, along with E Anglia, until well into the afternoon. Following on behind will be somewhat drier and brighter conditions but there will continue to be a risk of a scattering of showers into the afternoon and evening. The 10KM model highlights this evolution well and note the particularly wet start across the UK as low pressure is positioned right over the UK. Equally, note how the persistent rain then clears through the day to generally somewhat drier conditions but with scattered showers.

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TEMPERATURES: Overall temperatures will generally remain slightly below average, but with some local variations to end the week. Maximum temperatures on Thursday will be quite low across central, northern and eastern areas and range between 6C and 10C. Further west temperatures will rise and maxima up to 12C to 14C is possible across Ireland and SW England. Into Friday and temperatures do recover somewhat but overall this rise in temperatures will be offset by the wet weather and maximum temperatures on Friday will range between 8C and 12C generally, though locally just 6C or 7C in the north and perhaps 13C or 14C in the south in any brighter weather during the late afternoon.

Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



Link ................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/april-showers-and-spells-of-rain/


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