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Spring Sunshine and Increasing Temperatures! By Matt Hugo - April 5, 2015.
Topic Started: 5 Apr 2015, 11:50 AM (116 Views)
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Spring Sunshine and Increasing Temperatures! By Matt Hugo - April 5, 2015 10:36.





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OVERVIEW: High pressure will be a dominant feature of the weather throughout the coming week and, as a result, this will lead to predominantly dry and settled conditions across many areas of the UK with bright or sunny spells. Weather fronts will move over the top of the high pressure at times to bring thicker cloud and some patchy rain and drizzle to northern Scotland in particular, but emphasis is on a pleasantly warm, settled and benign spell of weather this week.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a large area of high pressure both at the surface and within the upper atmosphere that will dominate the weather throughout the week. This feature will maintain fine and settled conditions across most areas of the UK and produce some particularly pleasant spring weather.

2) Areas of low pressure well to the west of the UK will remain there throughout most of the week as the high pressure over the UK stops them from moving eastwards. They will, temporarily, move over the top of the high and it is this process that will bring some thicker cloud and patchy precipitation to parts of northern Scotland at times through the week.

MONDAY to THURSDAY: The majority of the coming week can be grouped together simply because the weather will change little over the course of the week. With high pressure dominating across many areas then days will be characterised by bright or sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. The cloud amounts on each day will be the primary feature of interest as where cloud is present then clearly it won’t be as warm as where there is sunshine, and each day will provide different scenarios in terms of where cloud is or isn’t located. Overall though confidence is reasonably high to suggest that most areas of the UK will experience bright or sunny spells at times by day and with some areas seeing some prolonged spells of sunshine as well. Nights will be chilly beneath any clear skies and some patchy frost is possible, whilst mist and fog may also develop as well on a more local and regional scale.

Across parts of Scotland, especially northern Scotland, weak weather fronts will move through at times and these will bring thicker cloud with some patchy light rain and drizzle. As a result more northern areas of Scotland are likely to be generally cloudier then elsewhere throughout the week with an on-going risk of some patchy precipitation at times. The GFS model highlights the position and movement of the high pressure well between Monday and Thursday and I’ve annotated where the main high pressure will be. Note however, the risk of some rain and drizzle across the far north of Scotland at times.

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FRIDAY: At the moment most of England and Wales, at least, will maintain fine and settled conditions to end the week and it may also become warm or even very warm for early April as more of a south or south-east wind develops. However, as is evident on the above weather charts note how the high pressure begins to decline towards the east and north-east by Thursday. This process is set to continue into Friday and, as a result, will allow weather fronts to move into more northern and western areas during the day. There are some uncertainties over the details of this, but at the moment most of Scotland and Ireland are likely to end the week cloudier and perhaps with some mainly light or moderate rain or showers possible. Most of England and Wales, at the moment, is expected to remain dry with some bright or sunny spells possible, especially across southern and south-eastern areas of England. The GFS model highlights this situation well, noting the patchy rain into more northern and western areas, whilst further south and east it is drier. Also note the expected temperatures by Friday afternoon across parts of England and Wales with perhaps temperatures up to 17C or 18C, again warm or very warm for early April.

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TEMPERATURES: Confidence is high to suggest that the maximum temperatures this week will be as high as they have been so far this year. As a result a particularly pleasant spell of weather is expected given that temperatures will be slightly above average or even above average for some areas later in the week. There will be some local and regional variations in temperatures though and this is something to be aware of given that areas with more cloud will see depressed temperatures than compared with areas where it is sunny. Overall though maximum temperatures will range between 11C and 15C across many areas. However, 16C or 17C is certainly possible at times and more particularly so later in the week across England and Wales when temperatures may even near 18C to 20C across some areas. The GFS model highlights the expected maximum temperature on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday below and with Friday’s maximum temperatures evident on the above chart. Nights will be chilly still beneath any clear skies and some patchy frost is possible, but generally minimum temperatures will be insignificant and generally range between 3C and 7C.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link ................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/spring-sunshine-and-increasing-temperatures/



Source .......... Posted Image

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