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Warm and Settled Then A Chilly Change By Matt Hugo - April 8, 2015.
Topic Started: 8 Apr 2015, 08:24 PM (94 Views)
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Warm and Settled Then A Chilly Change By Matt Hugo - April 8, 2015 12:32



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OVERVIEW: The warm and settled conditions that have dominated this week due to high pressure will continue throughout the remainder of the week across most areas, but changes will begin to develop from the west during Friday. Quite an abrupt change in conditions is then expected into the coming weekend as a much cooler, if not colder conditions develop across the UK, but some bright or sunny spells will still be present.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a large area of high pressure both at the surface and within the upper atmosphere that is essentially acting like a block and keeping weather systems at bay. It has maintained mainly dry weather across most areas of the UK so far this week and will maintain dry weather through to the end of the week. Warm conditions will also continue and in fact develop further during Thursday and Friday as this high pressure declines to the south-east of the UK and allows for the development of a south or south-westerly wind.

2) This is a developing region of low pressure that will essentially pass to the north-west of the UK later on Friday and into Saturday. A cold front associated with this low pressure is what will move down across all areas late on Friday and overnight into Saturday to bring quite an abrupt change in conditions to far cooler, if not colder conditions than compared with Thursday and Friday.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The high pressure will continue to dominate across most areas of the UK during Thursday and Friday, but the area of low pressure mentioned above will begin to approach during Friday to generally bring greater amounts of cloud to end the week. However, further bright or sunny spells are expected at times, especially on Thursday when further prolonged spells of sunshine are to be expected at times. Thursday will maintain very similar conditions to what has been in evidence so far this week and that is for mainly dry conditions nationwide with bright or sunny spells and just some small amounts of cloud. Into Friday and the developing low pressure may well signal a few showers across parts of Scotland and Ireland during the afternoon and evening before more persistent rain arrives here. However, across most of England and Wales it will be another dry day with bright or sunny spells, despite increasing amounts of cloud it will be a warm and quite humid day.

The 10KM model highlights the dry and settled weather still on Thursday and then with the increasing risk of showers and more unsettled conditions from the west later on Friday.

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The temperatures through the rest of the week will be somewhat of a talking point. Despite increasing cloud amounts the development of more of a south or south-westerly wind will allow for increasingly warmer conditions to develop from the south and many areas of the UK will end the week particularly warm. Maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday afternoon will widely range between 14C and 18C across many areas of the UK but across England and Wales in particular are likely to reach 20C in a number of places on both Thursday and Friday afternoon. The GFS model, below, highlights this warm end to the week particularly well.

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WEEKEND CHANGES: The low pressure which approaches to end the week will move across the north of the UK into the start of the weekend and will introduce a much cooler, if not colder air mass off the Atlantic. Whilst some bright or sunny spells are expected at times, Saturday is likely to produce a mixture of sunshine and showers along with a chilly W or NW’ly wind. Into Sunday and whilst more southern areas of the UK may be dry some persistent wet and windy weather is currently expected to develop across more northern and western areas.

The change in air mass is highlighted well by the arrival of the ‘blue colours’ on the image below on the left, this signaling a much cooler or colder air mass off the Atlantic. Equally note the current expected maximum temperatures too for Saturday afternoon with highs just 6C to 12C generally. Clearly when this is compared with highs of 15C to 20C during Thursday and Friday then it will ‘feel’ markedly cooler/colder as we move into the weekend, so a case of enjoy the warmth in the next few days as it’ll be an abrupt change into Saturday across all areas.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link ............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/warm-and-settled-then-a-chilly-change/

Source ........... Posted Image
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