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| Warm Weather Set to Get Swept Aside By Matt Hugo - April 10, 2015. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 10 Apr 2015, 06:56 PM (136 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 10 Apr 2015, 06:56 PM Post #1 |
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Warm Weather Set to Get Swept Aside By Matt Hugo - April 10, 2015![]() OVERVIEW: The coming weekend will produce quite a drastic change in conditions across all areas of the UK after the recent settled and warm conditions. An active weather front will move eastwards overnight tonight before quickly clearing away to the east during Saturday morning. Following on behind will be a markedly cooler, if not colder air mass across all areas and this will signal a marked change in temperatures. Some drier and brighter conditions remain likely this weekend but overall conditions will be far more unsettled than of late too. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) This is our region of high pressure that has dominated the weather across the UK for several days and of which is now declining away to the south-east of the UK. This process of it moving away down into the near continent then allows low pressure systems to move into the UK from the west this evening and overnight. 2) This is a developing area of low pressure to the west and north-west of the UK which has a marked weather front associated with it and this is highlighted by the zone of white cloud on the satellite image to the west of Ireland. It is behind this feature that much cooler/colder air mass is present and will move across all areas of the UK this evening and overnight as the weather front moves eastwards bringing the first significant rainfall in at least 5 or 6 days to most areas. LATE FRIDAY and SATURDAY: This evening will see some residual bright or sunny spells but with a general increase in cloud. For most of England and Wales it will be quite a mild evening and night, but changes will quickly take place from the west. Outbreaks of rain and showers across Ireland this evening will develop and become more widespread and move west to east across all areas of the UK overnight and through into Saturday morning. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected to be across Ireland, Scotland and N England and by morning all areas of the UK will experience a marked change in temperature as the warmth is swept away eastwards with the eastward moving cold front. The 3KM model below highlights this evolution well overnight and through into Saturday morning. ![]() ![]() Saturday will then be a simple mixture of sunshine and showers for most areas but with the most frequent showers expected across the northern half of the UK and these will be locally heavy, at times, across N Ireland and Scotland and perhaps N England. The change in air mass and drop in temperature is highlighted well on the below image and note the ‘blue colours’ following the weather front from the west, of which highlights the change to a much cooler regime during Saturday. Equally note how many central and southern areas of England are generally dry through Saturday afternoon with some bright or sunny spells, whilst the showers are most frequent in the north. ![]() SUNDAY: During late Saturday and overnight into Sunday we look towards the south-west of the UK for the next weather system to move into the UK and this feature will bring more organised and potentially heavy rain to parts of the UK for a time during the course of Sunday. So, an area of low pressure with its associated weather fronts is expected to produce outbreaks of rain across most of Ireland by Sunday morning, whilst showery conditions persist across Scotland. Elsewhere it will be quite a chilly start to Sunday but it will be dry and this scenario is highlighted well on the below image for the early hours of Sunday morning. ![]() As we move on through the course of Sunday the persistent rain will steadily move eastwards across central areas of the UK. There does remain some uncertainties over which specific areas will see this rain but after bringing a wet start to Sunday across Ireland the low pressure (marked L) will move into parts of N Wales, N England and S Scotland during the late morning and into the afternoon bringing a spell of wet weather across these regions before clearing away into the North Sea by the end of the afternoon. Some rain may also get into parts of the Midlands, but generally many central and southern areas of England should remain dry, whilst across Scotland, to the north of the persistent wet weather, cool and showery conditions will continue. This evolution is highlighted well on the below two forecast charts for 9am on Sunday morning and 3pm in the afternoon. ![]() So, in summary for many central and southern areas of England and Wales most of Sunday should be dry with some bright or spells, but with some cloudy spells too. Across Ireland and then into some central areas of the UK a spell of wet weather is likely for a time, whilst across Scotland it will remain cool and showers. TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this weekend will be markedly lower than of late and will be a ‘talking point’ of the weather as it will ‘feel’ much cooler, if not colder. Maximum temperatures on Saturday, compared with Friday, will be between 5 and 10 degrees lower across most areas and the cool-feel will be accentuated by a moderate or fresh westerly wind. Temperatures may recover somewhat across southern areas on Sunday but probably not to the values that is currently indicated below by the latest forecast model and this will then be followed by a cold night on Sunday night and into Monday with a frost likely on Sunday night. Maximum temperatures across Scotland, Ireland and N England are expected to range between 8C and 12C generally and across Wales and the rest of England between 10C and 14C which again is much lower than of late. ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ............... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/warm-weather-set-to-get-swept-aside/ Source ..............
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9:39 AM Jul 11