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Warming Up and Mainly Dry By Matt Hugo - April 12, 2015.
Topic Started: 12 Apr 2015, 11:53 AM (141 Views)
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Warming Up and Mainly Dry By Matt Hugo - April 12, 2015.





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OVERVIEW: The coming week will see a warming trend re-develop after a brief cooler interlude this weekend. There are uncertainties over cloud amounts and the amount of sunshine that will develop, but generally away from the far north and west of Scotland where it will be particularly wet at times, most areas of the UK will have a predominantly dry week and especially so across England and Wales where it will become warm or very warm in the run-up to mid-week.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is an area of high pressure situated just to the south of the UK that will be an influential feature of the weather across most of England and Wales to start the week. It is this feature that will produce mainly dry conditions across England and Wales in particular and also signal a warming trend as a mild or warm SW’ly wind develops over the top of the high pressure.

2) This is a region of weather fronts that will continue to feed into Scotland during the early part of next week. As a result some persistent and often heavy outbreaks of rain will affect parts of north and west Scotland with, locally, some very large rainfall totals possible across western Scotland in particular.

MONDAY and TUESDAY: The first half of the week will generally be a north and south divide in conditions. Most of Scotland will generally be cloudy but relatively mild. However, some persistent and often heavy outbreaks of rain will affect many northern and western areas of Scotland and with some large rainfall totals developing across western Scotland as rainfall totals add up over both Monday and Tuesday. In contrast many areas of England and Wales will start the week dry with high pressure being an influential feature of the weather. Cloud may be thick enough for some patchy light rain or drizzle across parts of N England at times, but this will be a local and limited risk and, again, many areas of England and Wales will start the new working dry with bright or sunny spells and it will become pleasantly warm.

The GFS model below highlights the north and south split in conditions to start the week making note of the wet weather across Scotland and also note the warming trend too with it becoming warm or even very warm across most of England and Wales during Tuesday in particular.

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WEDNESDAY: Into the middle of the week and a weather front that will initially be across Scotland is expected to make slow progress southwards down into N England and behind it will introduce cooler conditions. So, at the moment Wednesday is expected to see some rain and showers across Scotland and Ireland move slowly southwards into N England during the afternoon and evening and bring some patchy light rain and drizzle here. However, for many central and southern areas of England and Wales it will be another dry day with some bright or sunny spells and it will also be another warm day as well. A few isolated heavy afternoon showers may break out across parts of S England due to the ‘heat of the day’, but this will be a localised and isolated risk, but if any do develop then some localised torrential downpours are possible and it is something to be aware of from a local and regional point of view.

The GFS model highlights the patchy rain and showers across Scotland moving southwards into N England well and also note the continued warm or very warm weather across most of England and Wales with Wednesday likely to be the warmest day of the week and perhaps the year so far. Equally though note a clear divide in temperatures between the north and south of the UK behind the weather front that is moving southwards with maximum temperatures potentially just 9C or 10C in Scotland but perhaps 21C or 22C across parts of the south of England.

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THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The weather front that will move slowly southwards on Wednesday is expected to reach the far south of England by the early hours of Thursday, at the moment and this, as a result, will introduce a cooler end to the week across most areas but still with some pleasant temperatures. The general weather pattern to end the week is that of high pressure at the moment and, as a result, this is signalling a dry end to the week across most areas. A few well scattered showers may develop in places but overall with high pressure developing over the UK then Thursday and Friday are set fair across many areas with some bright or sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud at times. Nights could be quite chilly to end the week and some mist and fog patches may also develop in places too.

The GFS model highlights the high pressure situated over the UK and I’ve annotated the exact position of the high pressure too. Clearly both days look fine and settled and whilst it will be pleasantly warm in the sunshine clearly note a very different temperature pattern to end the week across the UK than compared with the warm or very warm weather earlier in the week.

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SUMMARY: Often fine and dry this week across England and Wales. Becoming warm or very warm too between Monday and Wednesday but with a cooler end to the week. Rain and showers likely across Scotland between Monday and Wednesday with some significant rain across western Scotland but even here the week will end dry.

Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org

Link .................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/warming-up-and-mainly-dry/


Source ............... Posted Image
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