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Happy Days! – More Sunshine on the Way By Matt Hugo - April 19, 2015.
Topic Started: 19 Apr 2015, 02:56 PM (124 Views)
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Happy Days! – More Sunshine on the Way By Matt Hugo - April 19, 2015.#


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OVERVIEW: The coming week, for most of it, will be dominated by high pressure and this will maintain the fine and settled conditions that have dominated the weather across the UK for some time now. There is, however, quite high confidence to suggest that a change to far more unsettled conditions will take place by Friday and then into the forth-coming weekend, so whilst Monday to Thursday will be particularly pleasant a change is on the horizon within the medium and longer term.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a large area of high pressure both at the surface and within the upper atmosphere that will dominate the weather throughout most of the coming week. As is often the case variable amounts of cloud will circulate around beneath the high pressure to bring some cloudier conditions at times, but equally a lot of sunshine is expected too with further dry weather.

2) This is an area of low pressure that will remain slow moving to the south-west of the UK throughout most of the week. By the time we get to Friday this low pressure area will then have the opportunity to move up into the UK and, at the moment, it is from the south-west that a change to far more unsettled conditions is to be expected during Friday and beyond.

MONDAY to THURSDAY: Most of the week can be grouped together with Monday through to Thursday producing very similar conditions with fine, settled and benign weather across a large portion of the UK. With high pressure in place then many areas of the UK will experience little or no precipitation, perhaps with the exception of a few isolated light showers in the far south and also some patchy light rain or drizzle across the far north of Scotland. Days will be characterised by bright or sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Day-to-day changes will determine which areas see the most persistent sunshine and across some areas of the UK there will be spells of unbroken sunshine at times. Equally those areas that see plenty of sunshine one day but may well have more cloud then next and that general pattern and cycle will be in evidence between Monday and Thursday. Nights will remain quite chilly beneath any clear skies and some rural frost remains a possibility, otherwise temperatures will remain enough above freezing to prohibit that risk. Some mist and fog may also develop at times too. In the sunshine and relatively light winds it will feel warm, but across the south of England and Wales more of a moderate or even fresh east or south-easterly wind will develop and this will ‘take the edge off’ the temperatures a little compared with Scotland, Ireland and N England where winds will be light throughout most of the week.

The GFS model below highlights the predominantly fine weather on all days with little descriptive weather to discuss and I’ve annotated where the main surface high pressure is expected to be…

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FRIDAY: As was mentioned at the start of the forecast a change in the weather is expected during Friday and beyond. Whilst there are some uncertainties over the details of the weather and the way the breakdown in the fine and settled conditions will take place, confidence is high to suggest the week will end up far more unsettled than of late and that unsettled regime is then set to continue into next weekend and also into the final week of April as well. At the moment high pressure is expected to decline away from the UK by Friday and this will allow low pressure to develop from the south-west of the UK bringing a mostly cloudy end to the week, increasing winds and also with an increasing risk of rain or showers across parts of the UK. Not everywhere is expected to end up wet on Friday, but some areas will see some appreciable rainfall totals to end the week as low pressure develops from the south-west.

The GFS model highlights the developing situation well and note early on Friday the low pressure approaching from the south-west with rain and showers into Ireland, Wales and SW England and then as the day progresses the rain and showers will progress northwards across most areas of the UK, perhaps with the exception of central and northern areas of Scotland.

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TEMPERATURES: For most of the UK the coming week will produce near or slightly above average temperatures in what will be, overall, a pleasantly warm week. Temperatures won’t reach the same values of that experienced last week but, again, in light winds and the sunshine it will feel pleasantly warm. Clearly the unsettled conditions during Friday will signal a reduction in temperatures and this theme of cooler weather to end the week will continue into next weekend as a well. So it is a case of Monday to Thursday will be pleasantly warm but then cooler thereafter. The charts below highlight the likely temperatures during the first half of the week and note the pleasantly warm conditions, but then equally note the lower temperatures by Friday too.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



Link .................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/happy-days-more-sunshine-on-the-way/

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