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| UK Long Range Weather forecast | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 22 Apr 2015, 11:13 AM (117 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 22 Apr 2015, 11:13 AM Post #1 |
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UK Long Range Weather forecast![]() Our Long Range Forecast is here to provide you with an idea as to the expected weather within the longer term across the UK in general. As you can appreciate weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further one progresses away from present day then confidence in the expected weather decreases accordingly. However, using longer range forecasting techniques and information the below forecast will provide a good guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks. Longer Term Forecast and Trends Tuesday 21st April to Monday 18th May 2015 Summary The persistent fine and settled conditions of late and of present are forecast to come to quite an abrupt end towards the end of April as far cooler, if not colder and wetter conditions develop. Confidence is relatively high to suggest a far more sustained period of wet and unsettled conditions is now likely to end April and move into the opening week or more of May which will be in contrast to the dry and fine weather that has dominated throughout most of April. An improvement in conditions is possible towards mid-May but overall emphasis is definitely on a change to far more unsettled and cooler weather in the coming few weeks. ____________________________________________________ Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 14C WEEK 1 (21st to 27th Apr): Summary: Increasingly unsettled and likely cooler too. Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to be near to or slightly below average through this week as more unsettled conditions develop with temperatures 1C or 2C below average at times, especially after the 25th. Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near average, if not perhaps slightly above average, especially compared with the previous weeks given that far more unsettled conditions are likely to develop during the latter half of April at the moment. Confidence: Confidence is high, given good model agreement, for the latter half April to generally become more unsettled after some fine and settled conditions in previous weeks. Temperatures may well begin to trend slightly below average and rainfall totals will recover after recent dry weather in previous weeks too as a marked change in the weather takes place. WEEK 2 (28th Apr to 4th May): Summary: Changeable conditions expected to end April and start May. Temperatures: Current indications are for temperatures to generally be around average to end April and start May with no significant deviations from average currently in evidence. Rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be near to average too for late April and early May with some wet weather certainly possible at times, but equally some drier and brighter days certainly seem possible as well. Confidence: Confidence is medium to high for the end of April and early May to produce quite changeable conditions, but overall with low pressure bringing further spells of rain and showers at times, despite some drier and brighter intervals. Confidence is high for temperatures to be around the late April average, but there will be some day-to-day variations likely during this week with cooler weather in association with any wet weather for example WEEK 3 (5th to 11th May): Summary: A predominantly unsettled and cool week is now expected during this week. Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below average by around 1C or 2C as predominantly cool and unsettled conditions are likely to dominate during the week. Rainfall: Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be near or slightly above average in what could well be a particularly wet week given a clear signal for low pressure to dominate with perhaps some heavy rain possible at times. Confidence: Confidence is low to medium given that there is some good model agreement now for this week to generally be an unsettled week. There’s little evidence to point towards fine and settled weather and low pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature of the weather with a cool and unsettled week currently preferred. WEEK 4 (12th to 18th May): Summary: Potentially drier and warmer but still with some rain or showers at times. Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to recover to nearer average through the middle of May with some warmer weather at times but there’s little evidence to point towards any significant warm or hot weather at the moment. Rainfall: There’s little evidence to point towards either above or below average rainfall totals through this week so, at the moment, generally near average rainfall totals are preferred with some wet weather at times being balanced out with some drier weather at times too. Confidence: Confidence is low at the moment given the time frame involved, for this week to see somewhat of an improvement in conditions than compared with the previous week for example, but with still some wet weather at times of which is likely to be interspersed with some drier and brighter weather too. Link ................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/long-range-weather/ Source ...............
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9:39 AM Jul 11