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Remaining Warm but Increasingly Unsettled By Matt Hugo - April 22, 2015.
Topic Started: 22 Apr 2015, 07:51 PM (75 Views)
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Remaining Warm but Increasingly Unsettled By Matt Hugo - April 22, 2015.



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OVERVIEW: The fine, settled and benign conditions will continue within the short term, but overall the emphasis of the mid-week update is to highlight a gradual change to more unsettled conditions across the UK during Friday. The more significant and substantial change in conditions, particularly regarding temperatures, won’t take place until the coming weekend and that will be covered in more detail on Friday. However, our latest Long Range Forecast has recently been updated so if you’re after more information beyond the next few days then you can see that here – http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/long-range-weather/

ANALYSIS:

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1) This region is our area of high pressure that has brought some stunning weather so far this week and generally maintains the dry theme that has dominated throughout April so far. This area of high pressure will be on the move in the coming days and with it moving away from the UK it will then allow for more unsettled conditions to develop in its place.

2) This is an area of low pressure essentially to the west of Spain. It is this feature that will develop and move northwards into the UK from the south-west to start the change to more unsettled conditions by the time we get to Friday. Quite a complex evolution then takes place over the coming weekend whereby rain and showers become widespread and importantly a rapid drop in temperatures takes place.

THURSDAY: Thursday will, essentially, be the last of the fine and settled days across the UK. Pressure is now steadily falling as the high pressure over the UK weakens and also begins to move away. For most areas Thursday will still be predominantly fine and settled, but there will be differences compared with previous days. To start with cloud is likely to develop through the day more widely than previous days so whilst some bright or sunny spells are expected it will become cloudier through the day. Equally some low cloud and misty conditions are possible across a large portion of central and eastern areas of England to start the day, but this should gradually thin and break to allow for some bright or sunny spells. Cloud will be thick enough across the far north of Scotland through the day to produce some scattered showers and equally a few isolated heavy showers may also develop across parts of the Pennines through the afternoon.

The 10KM model highlights this situation well and note the risk of some patchy rain and showers across the north of Scotland through the day and then also the development and signal for some showers to perhaps develop across parts of the Pennines into the afternoon. Generally though Thursday is the last fine and settled day and most areas will still be dry with some bright or sunny spells and it will remain warm.

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FRIDAY: The more pronounced change to unsettled conditions will take place during Friday. Our high pressure that has brought the fine and settled conditions will finally decline away from the UK and low pressure approaching from the south-west will become the dominant feature of the weather. At the moment the day starts predominantly dry with perhaps some bright or sunny spells across the northern half of the UK in particular (N England, Scotland and N Ireland). However, further south across more southern and especially south-western areas of England and Wales it will be cloudier and outbreaks of rain and showers will be in evidence during the morning. As the day progresses the rain and showers in the south will sporadically progress northwards and most areas will be at risk of some showers by the end of the afternoon.

The GFS model highlights this expected evolution well and note the rain and showers into the far south by 9am on Friday morning, whilst more northern areas are drier still. Equally though, note how by the end of the afternoon (6pm) low pressure has taken over and a large portion of the UK is at risk of some rain and showers. Now, not everywhere will see as much rain as other locations and still drier and brighter intervals will still be in evidence through Friday afternoon, but clearly emphasis is on Friday becoming increasingly unsettled with an increasing risk of rain and showers through the day.

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TEMPERATURES: Despite the general progression towards more unsettled conditions the relatively warm weather will continue through to the end of the week. Thursday in particular will be another warm day with temperatures quite widely 14C to 18C as a maximum during the afternoon. Friday will clearly be somewhat cooler given cloudier and more unsettled conditions but even then it won’t be cool with temperatures remaining into the low to mid-teens. The GFS model highlights the expected maximum temperatures well for both Thursday and Friday afternoon below.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



Link .................... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/remaining-warm-but-increasingly-unsettled/

Source ................ Posted Image
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