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| Chilly Changes Ahead!…Rain, Showers and Below Average Temperatures By Matt Hugo - April 24, 2015 | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 24 Apr 2015, 07:07 PM (56 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 24 Apr 2015, 07:07 PM Post #1 |
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Chilly Changes Ahead!…Rain, Showers and Below Average Temperatures By Matt Hugo - April 24, 2015 14:32 ![]() OVERVIEW: After a particularly pleasant spell of weather for the time of year with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures, the coming weekend will signal a marked change in the weather across the whole of the UK. In what has been a particularly dry period of weather, the change in conditions this weekend will continue well into next week and also well into the opening week of May too as we see a significant change in the weather. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) This is an area of low pressure to the south-west of the UK with its associated weather fronts now moving into more southern and western areas of the UK and this signals the start of the change to more unsettled conditions with the risk of some rain and showers across more southern and western areas throughout the rest of Friday and overnight into Saturday. 2) This is an area of low pressure situated to the north of the UK and essentially both these areas of low pressure will combine over the UK to create a particularly unsettled and quite complex weather pattern this weekend. The area of low pressure to the north of the UK is what will eventually introduce much cooler, if not colder conditions from the north during late Saturday and into Sunday across all areas. SATURDAY: Saturday starts wet across more northern and western areas of the UK in particular as a weather front brings outbreaks of rain and showers to parts of Scotland and Ireland, some of which could be heavy at times. Some patchy rain is possible too across the far south-east of England, otherwise most of England and Wales start Saturday dry with some bright or sunny spells. The outbreaks of rain and showers across Scotland and Ireland will filter south to bring outbreaks of rain into most of N England by late morning and through into the afternoon. Following on behind, across most of Scotland and N Ireland, will be a markedly cooler air mass from the north and also a mixture of sunshine and showers, these turning wintry on the hills and mountains of Scotland. Ahead of the more persistent rain over N England will be milder and brighter conditions across most of central and southern areas of England and Wales but with the risk of some scattered, locally heavy showers developing during the afternoon and evening. The high resolution 3KM model highlights the zone of wet weather across Ireland and parts of Scotland to start Saturday and also the patchy rain and showers in the south-east. Note, as the day progresses the more persistent rain moves southwards into N England and some showers break out ahead of the persistent rain across central and southern areas of England, but these will be ‘hit and miss’. Also of importance is the change in air mass from the north behind the weather front moving southwards across northern areas. Note on the chart showing temperatures within the upper atmosphere the distinct difference in air mass with the blue colours filtering in from the north signalling markedly cooler/colder air arriving than compared with of late in particular. ![]() ![]() SUNDAY: Overnight on Saturday and into Sunday sees the more persistent rain across N England slowly move southwards so by the time we get to Sunday morning the more persistent rain is currently expected to be across parts of the Midlands, Wales and some southern areas of England too. Following on behind throughout the rest of Sunday across Scotland, Ireland and N England will be a mixture of sunshine and showers in an increasingly cold air mass for late April with the showers wintry on hills above around 300m in Scotland and above 400m across N England and N Ireland. The rain across southern areas of England will likely lead to a poor set of conditions for this year’s London Marathon with overcast conditions likely and with a risk of rain or showers at times, some of which could be heavy. However, the rain across southern areas will eventually clear later in the day and then all areas of the UK will end Sunday feeling chilly in a north or north-westerly wind but with some bright or sunny spells into the evening before sunset. The GFS model below highlights the wet weather across southern areas to start Sunday and note the generally showery conditions further north. Equally note how the blue colours on the temperature map within the upper atmosphere continue to filter further south during the day. This signals the cooler/colder air mass filter south across all areas to end the day and this will be an important aspect of Sunday’s forecast as all of the UK turns much cooler/colder than of late. ![]() ![]() TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this coming weekend will be a ‘talking point’ as they will gradually fall across all areas. Some milder weather will still be in evidence across more central and southern areas of England and Wales on Saturday with temperatures 11C to 15C possible, but nothing higher than 6C to 10C across Scotland, Ireland and N England generally. A chilly night will follow on Saturday night across the northern half of the UK with some frost by Sunday morning. All areas of the UK will then see below average temperatures by Sunday with highs ranging between 7C and 12C generally though perhaps only 5C or 6C across Scotland and N England and another chilly night will follow on Sunday night. The GFS temperature charts below highlight the expected maximum temperatures on Saturday and Sunday afternoon well and equally note the rather low mininum temperatures by Sunday morning and then also by Monday morning in particular which indicates a return of some late frosts this weekend, something for gardeners, for example, to be aware of. ![]() ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ........... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/chilly-changes-ahead-rain-showers-and-below-average-temperatures/ Source ............
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9:39 AM Jul 11