Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Welcome to Natural Hazards Forum. We hope you enjoy your visit.


You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as customizing your profile, sending personal messages, and voting in polls. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free.


Join our community!


If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features:

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
Rain, Showers and Chilly Temperatures By Matt Hugo - April 26, 2015
Topic Started: 26 Apr 2015, 12:23 PM (140 Views)
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar

Rain, Showers and Chilly Temperatures By Matt Hugo - April 26, 2015 10:35





Posted Image





OVERVIEW: The coming week and the final few days of April and into the start of May will provide very different weather conditions than compared with previous weeks and especially compared with last week. Overall low pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather this week and this will bring about particularly changeable conditions with spells of rain and showers interspersed with some drier and brighter weather at times. Of significance will be the persistence of slightly below or below average temperatures through the week with a distinctly chilly ‘feel’ to the weather at times, especially in any wet weather and both early and late each day with a persistent risk of frost by night beneath any clear skies. Confidence in the details of the weather from mid-week onwards are particularly low given the changeable conditions, but, as ever, we will keep you updated through the week regarding any changes to the forecast.

ANALYSIS:

Posted Image

1) This is an area of low pressure situated to the north and north-east of the UK which will dominate the weather into the opening few days of the coming week. It is this low pressure that has brought about a far cooler, if not colder air mass southwards across all areas. The low pressure will generally produce a mixture of sunshine and showers to start the week, but some longer spells of rain are possible at times too, especially across more northern and western areas of the UK.

MONDAY: We start the week on quite a chilly theme with some frost possible on Monday morning and this is something to be aware of. Otherwise for most areas of the UK, away from Scotland and Ireland, it will be dry with some bright or sunny spells. However, across Scotland and Ireland mostly cloudy conditions with showers and perhaps longer spells of rain early in the day will become increasingly widespread and continue to spread eastwards through the course of the day. As a result into Monday afternoon and perhaps with the exception of more southern and south-eastern areas of England, all areas of the UK will be at risk of some showers and perhaps with more prolonged spells of rain across Scotland, Ireland and N England. It will be cold enough for some of the showers to be wintry across the hills of the north with some sleet and snow possible.

The 3KM high resolution model highlights this evolution well through the day, noting many areas do start quite dry but with rain and showers already in the west are then set to spread eastwards across most areas through the day.

Posted Image

TUESDAY: Tuesday will be a cool and showery day across many areas if not feeling quite cold across more northern and western areas of the UK given a moderate or fresh west or north-westerly wind. As is often the case not everywhere will see the showers and some lengthy drier and brighter conditions are likely at times, especially across more southern and eastern areas of England in particular. A small scale feature that will increase the organisation of the showers and perhaps produce longer spells of rain is then set to move into Ireland during Tuesday afternoon before then spreading eastwards across parts of England and Wales by the end of the day and into the overnight period. The GFS model highlights the generally showery theme for most of the day, but note the risk of more organised outbreaks of rain spreading from the west later in the day and into the evening.

Posted Image

WEDNESDAY: At the moment there is a lot of uncertainty over the details for Wednesday. However, low pressure is set to be the dominant feature of the weather so confidence is high to suggest that many areas of the UK will be at risk of some rain and showers through the day, perhaps some locally heavy for a time too across parts of England and Wales and with the risk of some heavy showers across Scotland and Ireland. The complex nature of the weather during the day is what is creating some uncertainties over the details, but overall all areas of the UK will be at risk of seeing some rain and showers develop during the course of the day but with some temporary drier and brighter spells possible at times. The GFS model below highlights the complex and rather ‘messy’ precipitation forecast through the day as low pressure moves into the UK from the west and north-west, as highlighted.

Posted Image

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The week is forecast to end with many areas seeing a simple mixture of sunshine and showers and these are currently forecast to be most prevalent during the course of Thursday, whilst by Friday many areas of the UK could well become predominantly dry. Some of the showers on Thursday are likely to be heavy and hail and thunder certainly seems possible from some of the showers, but clearly with drier and brighter conditions in-between. By Friday whilst some scattered showers may develop almost anyway the trend, compared with Thursday, is for fewer showers and hence a greater risk of most of the UK seeing some lengthy drier and brighter conditions if not with sunny spells. What will be quite noticeable though is a cool, if not rather chilly, north or north-westerly wind and this maintain the theme for quite a chilly week overall. The GFS model highlights the showery conditions well on Thursday but note fewer showers, generally, during Friday.

Posted Image

TEMPERATURES: As indicated within the overview section of the forecast temperatures throughout most of this week will be slightly below or below average for late April and in complete contrast to last week’s warm weather. Overall temperatures will range between 7C and 11C across Scotland, Ireland and N England and between 9C and 13C across Wales and the rest of England. Temperatures will be particularly depressed in any wet weather when it will feel cool, if not rather cold, but equally it should still feel pleasant in any brighter intervals. Nights will also be chilly and there’ll be a persistent risk of frost throughout the week where skies remain clear for any length of time with some particularly noteworthy frosts possible for the time of year. The GFS model below highlights the expected temperatures on Monday, Wednesday and Friday to give you an idea as to the overall temperatures through the week and equally note the minimum temperatures on Tuesday morning and also on Friday morning which highlight the particularly cold nights that are possible this week.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link ................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/rain-showers-and-chilly-temperatures/


Source ............ Posted Image
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
« Previous Topic · Weather chat · Next Topic »
Add Reply

Skin by OverTheBelow