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Remaining Chilly But Temporarily Drier By Matt Hugo - April 29, 2015
Topic Started: 29 Apr 2015, 06:21 PM (62 Views)
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Remaining Chilly But Temporarily Drier By Matt Hugo - April 29, 2015 11:29



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OVERVIEW: Clearly so far this week the weather has been markedly different than of late with much cooler, if not colder weather and far more unsettled conditions too as low pressure dominates. Looking at the rest of the week the weather will become, albeit temporary, more settled and many areas of the UK will end the week generally fine and bright. However, the emphasis is on the word ‘temporary’ because despite a still reasonable start to the Bank Holiday Weekend there remains quite high confidence to suggest that as the coming BH Weekend progresses the weather will provide further rain and showers nationwide.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is an area of low pressure situated directly over the UK and of which brought the more persistent rain overnight and now provides a mixture of sunshine and showers during the mid-week period. This low pressure will maintain a risk of showers during Thursday but it will clear away to the east on Friday to then allow for a ‘window’ of improving conditions.

2) This large mass of cloud on satellite imagery well to the south-west of the UK and in fact just off the east coast of the USA, is a developing region of low pressure systems which is expected to approach the UK into the coming BH Weekend. There remain uncertainties over the details, but this region of low pressure systems will be responsible for bringing a renewed risk of rain, showers and rather unsettled conditions to many areas.

THURSDAY: Thursday will provide a mixture of sunshine and showers across most areas of the UK but the showers will be most frequent and heaviest in direct association with the low pressure that is clearing away to the east. As a result more northern and eastern areas of Scotland and England will see the greatest risk of showers during Thursday with some heavy showers during the afternoon and of which may well contain hail and thunder on a more local scale. Parts of the UK that are, essentially, furthest away from the low pressure, so western areas of Scotland, Ireland, Wales and SW England will see fewer showers and generally experience a dry day with bright or sunny spells. By the end of the day the showers will die away from most areas and with quite a cold air mass in place over the UK Thursday night into Friday morning will be a cold one with frost developing.

The high resolution 3KM model highlights the areas at primary risk of showers during Thursday and note that is more northern and eastern areas of the UK.

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FRIDAY: A chilly if not cold start to Friday is expected across many areas of the UK, perhaps with the exception of the far south and south-west of England and parts of Ireland. Frost is likely to be quite widespread and many rural areas of Wales, Midlands, N England and Scotland in particular will likely start the day with temperatures near or sub-zero so this is something to be aware of for Friday morning. Throughout the majority of Friday most areas of the UK will then be dry with bright or sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. After the cold start it will become quite pleasant in any sunshine and relatively light winds during the afternoon, but temperatures will still stay below average for early May. By the end of the day, or perhaps earlier, thickening cloud across parts of the far south and south-west of England and along with southern areas of Ireland will likely see some rain developing from the south-west and this will signal the gradual progression back towards more unsettled conditions into the coming weekend.

The GFS model highlights the predominantly dry conditions across most areas but note the risk of some rain and showers developing across the far south and south-west of the UK. There does remain some uncertainty over the timing of this, but generally many areas will remain dry for most of the day before the rain then develops from the south-west later.

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TEMPERATURES: As mentioned within the overview section temperatures have been particularly cool if not rather cold for the time of year and that trend will continue. It should feel quite pleasant though in the early May sunshine on Friday afternoon and light winds, but temperatures, overall, will remain slightly below or below average. The GFS model highlights the maximum temperatures well on both Thursday and Friday afternoon below and also note the temperatures early on Friday morning too which places emphasis on the cold and frosty start to Friday.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link .............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/remaining-chilly-but-temporarily-drier/


Source .............. Posted Image
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