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Rain and Showers?…It’s Got To Be A Bank Holiday! By Matt Hugo - May 1, 2015
Topic Started: 1 May 2015, 06:23 PM (94 Views)
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Rain and Showers?…It’s Got To Be A Bank Holiday! By Matt Hugo - May 1, 2015 12:07.





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OVERVIEW: The coming Bank Holiday Weekend will generally be unsettled as low pressure dominates. Whilst some persistent and often wet weather will develop at times there will still be some drier and brighter conditions too and these are most likely across the northern half of the UK on Saturday and then also across most of England and Wales on Monday. In-between, so through late Saturday and most of Sunday, some particularly wet weather is possible nationwide.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a large area of low pressure situated to the south-west of the UK. The mass of white on the satellite imagery is a complex number of weather fronts which are forecast to approach the UK into the BH Weekend and bring some particularly wet weather northwards across all areas at times and this feature will be the dominant feature of the weather over the weekend.

SATURDAY: Saturday starts wet across many southern and western areas of the UK with outbreaks of rain and showers. In contrast more northern and eastern areas, across Scotland and N England start the day dry, chilly but with some bright or sunny spells too. In what will be a slow process the outbreaks of rain and showers, across more southern and western areas, will gradually move northwards through the day to bring outbreaks of rain and a strengthening SE’ly wind into N England by the end of the afternoon and into the evening and then across all other areas of the north overnight on Saturday. As a result of this parts of N England and especially Scotland will have a predominantly dry day on Saturday, especially during daylight hours with some bright or sunny spells, but clearly with wet weather developing later on. The NMM model below highlights this evolution and note how more northern areas do remain quite dry for most of the day than compared with further south and west.

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SUNDAY: The day will start particularly wet across the northern half of the UK. The rain that will steadily progress northwards on Saturday is expected to still be in evidence across most of N England and Scotland to start the day with some particularly heavy rain possible by this time. Some localised flooding is possible in one or two prone areas, but no significant threat is expected given how dry the last few weeks have been. Clearly though it does signal a particularly poor start to Sunday across a large portion of the north of the UK. In contrast more southern and south-western areas of the UK will start the day relatively dry with some bright or sunny spells. As Sunday progress the more persistent rain across the north will gradually move away and then many areas of the UK will see a mixture of sunshine and showers through the afternoon and into the evening. Some of the showers across Ireland, Wales and England in particular could become particularly heavy on Sunday afternoon with hail and thunder certainly possible. As is always the case though the showers will be ‘hit and miss’ and not everywhere will see them, but equally where the showers do develop then some locally torrential downpours are certainly possible. The GFS model below highlights the wet start across many northern areas, but then note how this clears and more showery conditions follow on behind.

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BH MONDAY: Into Bank Holiday Monday and overall this is likely to be the best day of the weekend, especially across England and Wales. Any overnight showers are likely to clear early in the day and then for most of England and Wales a generally dry day is currently expected. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out, but generally most of the day will be dry with some bright or sunny spells. Importantly it will be warmer than of late too given a change in wind direction and, as a result, it will feel pleasantly warm during Monday afternoon in the sunshine. Scotland, Ireland and perhaps N England could be a little more unsettled with perhaps a greater risk of showers here at times through the day. The GFS model below clearly highlights the generally dry scenario for most of England and Wales through the day, but with perhaps some showers further north and west.

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NB: As a quick addition we are keeping a close eye on the developments from the south by late Monday and then more particularly into Tuesday of next week. Whilst there are uncertainties there is a growing signal for some particularly heavy rain to move northwards into England and Wales. As a result whilst most of BH Monday could well be dry, bright or sunny by the time we move into Tuesday some very wet and potentially disruptive weather may develop. Clearly we will continue to keep a close eye on this and more information on this will be available in the weekly forecast on Sunday.

TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this coming weekend will recover compared with what has been experienced of late. England, Wales and Ireland in particular will see a steady rise in temperatures over the weekend after another cool day on Saturday. It will take until Monday for milder weather to reach Scotland really and a distinct north and south divide in temperatures is evident on the below temperatures charts, but overall temperatures are likely to return to nearer average values for early May and, as a result, it will feel warmer than of late. Clearly the unsettled conditions will offset this rise somewhat and Saturday afternoon and evening for parts of the UK are likely to ‘feel’ rather unpleasant given outbreaks of rain and a strong SE’ly wind, but overall by Sunday and Monday it will be warmer. The GFS model below highlights the expected maximum temperatures on all three days and there is little or no risk of any frost with temperatures remaining well above freezing overall.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



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