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A Medley of May Weather! By Matt Hugo - May 3, 2015.
Topic Started: 3 May 2015, 12:25 PM (85 Views)
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A Medley of May Weather! By Matt Hugo - May 3, 2015 08:51






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OVERVIEW: The coming week will produce yet further unsettled and changeable conditions as the unsettled start to May continues. Whilst some drier and brighter weather is possible at times, noticeably early in the week (BH Monday) and then also later in the week, there is likely to be further heavy rain on Tuesday and there could also be some unseasonably strong winds for the time of year around the mid-week period too.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a region of low pressure that has and continues to bring some particularly wet weather across all areas during the course of today (Sunday). These unsettled conditions will clear away into BH Monday to leave a ‘window’ of better weather during the day across most areas.

2) This is a developing area of low pressure well to the south-west at the moment but this feature is set to bring further very heavy rain during the course of Monday night and into Tuesday as it moves northwards across the UK. This feature may well cause some problems due to heavy rainfall and will also develop into a very complex and potentially significant low pressure by Wednesday to bring some strong winds to parts of the UK.

MONDAY: The week will start predominantly dry across most of the UK with some bright or sunny spells at times during the day and of which will be a marked improvement in the weather than compared with today (Sunday) for example. A few scattered showers are possible across Scotland and Ireland given that these areas of the UK will be nearer to an area of low pressure to the west of the UK, but generally many areas will have a pleasant day with some warm spells of sunshine and most areas will be dry. The high resolution model highlights this general weather during the course of Monday well.

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TUESDAY: Into Tuesday and the weather becomes significantly inclement once again. The fine and relatively settled conditions of Monday are replaced by low pressure developing from the south. This will, as a result, signal a wet start to Tuesday across a large portion of England, Wales and parts of Ireland. Some particularly heavy rain is likely on Tuesday morning which may well lead to widespread poor driving conditions due to excessive surface water and spray and there is also the risk of some localised surface flooding too in places. As the day progresses the more persistent rain will spread northwards into Scotland and following on behind across England, Wales and Ireland will be brighter conditions but with scattered showers developing. Some of the showers during the afternoon could be heavy and hail and thunder is certainly possible from some of the showers on a more local and regional scale. The GFS model highlights the potentially very wet start to Tuesday well and then note how the persistent rain moves northwards with more showery conditions following during the afternoon.

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WEDNESDAY: By the time we get to mid-week there is relatively high confidence to suggest that an unseasonably deep area of low pressure will be situated just to the north of the UK. This will, as a result, lead to another unsettled day with many areas of the UK seeing a mixture of sunshine and showers through the day but perhaps with some longer spells of rain across Scotland. The showers during the afternoon could be heavy with a significant risk of some localised downpours and thunderstorms developing in places, again especially on a more local and regional scale. The other noticeable feature will be a fresh or strong, potentially gale force west or north-westerly wind across the country, but with some of the strongest winds occurring across more northern and western areas of the UK in what will be a distinctly cool and windy day.

The GFS model highlights the situation well for Wednesday and I’ve annotated where the location of the low pressure is with the letter ‘L’. As you can clearly see the low pressure is particularly deep and with showery conditions across many areas with perhaps longer spells of rain in the north. Note as well the wind gusts into Wednesday afternoon with many areas seeing wind gusts between 30mph and 40mph, but with perhaps winds gusting up to 40mph to 50mph across some northern and western areas of the UK, particularly strong winds for the time of year now.

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THURSDAY and FRIDAY: The end of the week is expected to provide some improvement, especially during Thursday at the moment. The low pressure just to the north of the UK on Wednesday will pull away to the north and then leave a ‘window’ of better weather during Thursday. Some scattered showers seem possible at times, but generally for most areas of the UK the day will be dry with some bright or sunny spells and the GFS model highlights the generally dry theme well for Thursday. Into Friday and it has to be said there is a lot of uncertainty over the weather for Friday. There is a distinct split within the weather models as to whether the relatively fine and settled conditions on Thursday continues into Friday, or whether it becomes more unsettled. As an example the GFS model is highlighting the latter situation with yet further wet and windy weather moving into the UK from the west to end the week and, for now, this is the preferred solution with further wet and windy weather developing across most areas to end the week, but clearly with a lot of uncertainty.

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TEMPERATURES: Overall temperatures this week will be near to average, though trending slightly below average at times. Some pleasant conditions are expected on Monday with temperatures widely 14C to 18C and feeling warm in the sunshine across England and Wales, though a little cooler further north and west. Overall as the week progresses though temperatures are likely to decline and especially in any persistent wet weather and also in the windy weather around mid-week it will feel particularly cool, so quite varied temperatures are expected through the week. The GFS model below highlights the expected maximum temperatures on Monday, Wednesday and Friday to give an idea as to how the temperatures will change through the week and note how temperatures are highest on Monday.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org



Link ............... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-medley-of-may-weather/


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