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UK Long Range Weather Forecast.
Topic Started: 6 May 2015, 12:36 AM (85 Views)
Audi-Tek
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UK Long Range Weather Forecast.



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Our Long Range Forecast is here to provide you with an idea as to the expected weather within the longer term across the UK in general. As you can appreciate weather forecasting is not an exact science and the further one progresses away from present day then confidence in the expected weather decreases accordingly. However, using longer range forecasting techniques and information the below forecast will provide a good guide as to the expected weather and possible trends in temperatures and rainfall throughout the next 3 to 4 weeks.

Tuesday 5th May to Monday 1st June 2015

Summary

The unsettled conditions of late are forecast to continue within the short and medium term which will take us towards mid-May. Despite some drier and brighter conditions at times, these will be temporary and further rain and showers are expected, some of which will be heavy at times too. There is a weak signal for late May onwards to potentially produce more in the way of drier and settled conditions as high pressure becomes more influential, but this isn’t a particularly strong signal at the moment and overall there remains a distinct lack for any significant warm or hot, early summer weather.

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Average Mean Temperature for the Forecast Period: 15C

WEEK 1 (5th to 11th May):

Summary: Remaining changeable with further unsettled conditions at times, but perhaps becoming drier and brighter later in the week.

Temperatures: Temperatures are forecast to be near to or slightly below average overall through the week though with perhaps a more pronounced spell of warmer weather by the end of the week when temperatures may rise to 1C or 2C above average.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be near or slightly above average as further rain and showers develop at times but perhaps with a trend towards somewhat drier and brighter conditions later in the week.

Confidence: Confidence is high to suggest that further changeable conditions will dominate through this week with spells of rain and showers at times interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions and with perhaps a more pronounced trend towards drier and settled conditions later in the week.



WEEK 2 (12th to 18th May):

Summary: Generally remaining changeable with some rain and showers at times, but drier and brighter at times.

Temperatures: Temperatures are likely to recover to nearer average through the middle of May with some warmer weather at times but there’s little evidence to point towards any significant warm or hot weather at the moment.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to be near or perhaps trending slightly below average. Further rain and showers are certainly possible, but there will be some drier and brighter conditions at times too which will balance out the risk of rain and showers at times.

Confidence: Confidence is medium to high for this week to see somewhat of an improvement in conditions than compared with the previous week for example as some drier and brighter conditions develop. Equally though there will still be a risk of some rain or showers at times as further changeable conditions continue.



WEEK 3 (19th to 25th May):

Summary: Average conditions for mid to late May, drier and brighter at times, but with some rain and showers too.

Temperatures: At the moment temperatures are forecast to be around average during the latter half of May which will lead to some warmer weather at times, but with little evidence, at this stage, to signal any very warm or hot weather.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are likely to be near to average for late May given that some rain and showers are possible, but equally drier and brighter days are probable too.

Confidence: Confidence is low to medium at the moment given a lack for any specific weather type to develop later in May, but with current expectations for the weather to be quite average for the time of year. This, as a result, would lead to some warm and dry weather at times, but some rain and showers can’t be ruled out either.



WEEK 4 (26th May to 1st June):

Summary: Potentially drier and somewhat warmer across most areas.

Temperatures: Temperatures, overall, are likely to be near or perhaps slightly above average but with some significant local and regional variations possible. The end of May and start of June could well provide some warmer weather at times but there continues to be little evidence to point towards any significant warm or hot weather developing.

Rainfall: Rainfall totals are forecast to trend slightly below average, perhaps locally below average at times through this week given that high pressure is currently favored to be the most influential feature of the weather.

Confidence: Low confidence for now as there are some particularly weak signals for late May and the start of June which does create a lot of uncertainty over the expected weather. However, what signals are present do point towards a generally warmer, drier and more settled late May and early June period and that is the preferred outcome for now.



Link ............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/long-range-weather/



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