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A Weekend of Mixed Fortunes By Matt Hugo - May 8, 2015 12:43.
Topic Started: 8 May 2015, 06:35 PM (70 Views)
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A Weekend of Mixed Fortunes By Matt Hugo - May 8, 2015 12:43.




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OVERVIEW: The coming weekend will provide further changeable conditions. There will be some improvements than compared with of late, primarily regarding temperatures by Sunday across England and Wales. However, this will be counterbalanced by the threat of further wet and windy weather across Scotland and Ireland during Sunday. Saturday is a rather ‘messy’ day in that despite some drier and brighter conditions residual rain and showers are expected for a time before clearing later in the day.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This region of cloud on satellite imagery is a developing area of low pressure which is set to bring outbreaks of heavy rain eastwards across parts of England and Wales through the remainder of Friday and overnight into Saturday. This feature will also be responsible for producing rather mixed conditions during Saturday with some drier and brighter conditions, but equally with some residual rain and showers.

2) Way to the west of the UK is yet further areas of low pressure and these will track to the north-west of the UK during Sunday. The track of these weather systems will lead to further wet and windy weather but this will be restricted across Scotland and Ireland. For most of England and Wales conditions will improve on Sunday with mainly dry, bright and increasingly warm conditions favoured.

SATURDAY: The area of low pressure that will bring some heavy rain to parts of the UK later today (Friday) will still be in evidence on Saturday despite slowly clearing away into the North Sea. A hang-back of overcast conditions with some patchy rain and showers are expected to start the day across N England in particular with perhaps some moderate rain still present for a time. Across Scotland it will be a mainly dry start to Saturday with some bright or sunny spells and elsewhere too it will be a mainly dry start despite a few showers across Wales, SW England and perhaps into Ireland. As Saturday progresses a scattering of showers are possible across inland areas of Scotland, N and E England in particular, but overall the trend through Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening will be for many areas to end the day dry with some bright or sunny spells. The higher resolution model below highlights this sequence of events, noting, in particular, the improving conditions as the day progresses.

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SUNDAY: Into Sunday and the improving conditions across most areas to end Saturday will become established across England and Wales. As a result for most of England and Wales Sunday will be dry with bright or sunny spells, especially across more central and southern areas of England. Cloud may be thick enough at times across parts of NW England and especially Cumbria for some patchy rain and particularly so later in the day, but emphasis is on England and Wales being dry, bright and pleasantly warm. It will, however, be a different story across Scotland and Ireland with overcast conditions producing outbreaks of rain and drizzle throughout the day along with a fresh or strong SW’ly wind. The NMM model below highlights this general evolution through the day.

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TEMPERATURES: Through the coming weekend temperatures will generally rise. The development of a SW’ly wind on Sunday will also signal a milder SW’ly air mass across most areas and it is this change in wind direction that allows for temperatures to rise during the day. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will range between 10C and 16C generally across the UK so, overall, another cool day but feeling pleasant in the sunshine later in the day. Into Sunday and despite somewhat milder temperatures of around 11C to 15C across Scotland and Ireland this will be offset by the wet and windy conditions. For England and Wales though temperatures will rise and are expected to range between 15C and 20C so a markedly warmer day on Sunday than compared with of late.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link ............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-weekend-of-mixed-fortunes/#sthash.0DQcLguy.dpuf



Source .............. Posted Image




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