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| A Bit of This and a Bit of That By Matt Hugo - May 10, 2015 . | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 10 May 2015, 08:48 PM (78 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 10 May 2015, 08:48 PM Post #1 |
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A Bit of This and a Bit of That By Matt Hugo - May 10, 2015 10:39 OVERVIEW: The coming week will provide further changeable conditions, hence the title of this week’s weekly forecast and outlook. The weather will not be as sunny, warm and dry as some of the newspapers have been reporting of late, despite some early warmth during the start of the week. The best day of the week will be Wednesday which will provide predominantly dry and settled conditions nationwide. However in-keeping with the weather of late this will then be followed by some particularly heavy rain on Thursday and this highlight’s well the changeable nature of the weather this coming week. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) The feature of interest that will dominate the weather during the opening few days of the week is currently located just to the west of the UK and this is quite a noteworthy area of low pressure. Satellite imagery highlights the text-book low pressure curl to the west of the UK. This is set to bring wet and windy weather to more northern and western areas today (Sunday) before a weakening band of rain moves southwards during Monday and Tuesday. Ahead of this some much warmer air of late has become established across England and Wales and this will lead to a warm start to the week, but this warmth will be short-lived. MONDAY: Into Monday and the low pressure dominates to the west of the UK and this will bring a mixture of sunshine and blustery showers to many areas of Scotland and Ireland through the day. A zone of mostly cloudy conditions with outbreaks of rain and drizzle will be in evidence across parts of Wales and N England during the morning, this slowly moving southeast through the day but fragmenting as it does so. Ahead of this, across many central and southern areas of England, Monday will be dry and bright with some warm spells of sunshine developing. The high resolution 3KM model highlights this general evolution and note the showery conditions across Scotland and Ireland, the zone of cloudy and damp weather across Wales and N England, especially early in the day, and the drier weather in the south and south-east. ![]() TUESDAY: The mainly dry and fine conditions will continue across most of England and Wales into Tuesday, but especially across many areas of central and southern England. What will be noticeable however is after the warmth of Monday, Tuesday will be a cooler and fresher day. Tuesday will provide a simple mixture of sunshine and showers. The showers will be most frequent and heaviest across Scotland, Ireland and N England where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible too. As mentioned many central and southern areas will remain dry with some bright or sunny spells but even here one or two isolated showers cannot be ruled out. Winds will be relatively light in the south and so shouldn’t feel too bad in any sunshine, but a cool feel will be in evidence across the northern half of the UK given the showers and a much fresher, if not strong, W or NW’ly wind. The 10KM model highlights this general north and south split in conditions during the day. ![]() WEDNESDAY: Mid-week will be produce the most settled conditions and hence the driest and brightest conditions almost nationwide. The low pressure to the north of the UK on Tuesday (as highlighted on the images above for Tuesday) will continue to move away to the east and north-east of the UK and this allows a ‘window of opportunity’ for high pressure to build into the UK. As a result after a potentially chilly start to the day, especially across rural areas of the north, many areas of the UK will be fine, dry and settled. Bright or sunny spells are expected despite some variable amounts of cloud at times. It will feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine and relatively light winds too even though temperatures will generally still be only average at best during the day. The GFS model highlights the mainly dry and fine conditions well for Wednesday below. ![]() THURSDAY: By the time we get to Thursday as quickly as the high pressure and settled conditions for Wednesday develop, they will soon decline away from the UK to make way for low pressure to move in from the west. As a result Thursday is expected to be a particularly wet day and probably the most unsettled day of the week. Outbreaks of rain and showers generally moving eastwards will affect many areas of Ireland, England and Wales through the day and there is some cause for concern potentially over the rainfall totals across parts of N England where up to 20mm to 30mm is possible through the day. The rain may well spread far enough north to affect S Scotland too, but at the moment most of Scotland, especially central and northern Scotland, will maintain dry conditions on Thursday. The GFS model highlights the wet weather well for Thursday and the low pressure in question has been annotated, clearly note the signal for some heavy rain across N England through the day. ![]() FRIDAY: There is some uncertainty over the weather for Friday at the moment, but generally the end of the week should see a slow improvement in conditions. The low pressure responsible for Thursday’s wet weather is likely to bring a risk of some rain and showers, at least during the early part of Friday, but a general improvement in conditions is then expected through the day. So, for parts of England and Wales some rain and showers may be in evidence on Friday morning, but thereafter many areas of the UK will see mainly dry conditions develop with some bright or sunny spells. A warm end to the week is not expected with the wind direction becoming more north or north-easterly across all areas. The GFS model does highlight the risk of some early showers or rain, but equally note the mainly dry afternoon. ![]() TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this week will, overall, remain near or slightly below average. There will certainly be some warmth early in the week across England and Wales on Monday when temperatures passing 20C are expected across the south-east of England, but this will be a very short lived increase in temperatures with temperatures generally falling through the week. The fine and settled weather on Wednesday will lead to a particularly pleasant day mid-week, but equally in the rain and showers on Thursday it will feel quite cold, especially across N England where the rain may linger for most of the day. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below average to end the week too. The GFS model highlights the likely temperatures on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and note the highest temperatures of the week are indeed on Monday. Equally some chilly nights are still possible especially around the middle of the week with Wednesday and Thursday morning’s providing a risk of some rural frost across the northern half of the UK and this is evident on the GFS charts too. ![]() ![]() ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-bit-of-this-and-a-bit-of-that/#sthash.ossOmu0P.dpuf Source .............. ![]() Edited by Audi-Tek, 10 May 2015, 08:52 PM.
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9:35 AM Jul 11