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| A North and South Divide By Matt Hugo - May 15, 2015 . | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 15 May 2015, 08:15 PM (40 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 15 May 2015, 08:15 PM Post #1 |
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A North and South Divide By Matt Hugo - May 15, 2015![]() OVERVIEW: The weather over the coming weekend will provide further rain and showers at times, but equally a lot of dry and bright weather too. There is expected to be a distinct north and sout divide in conditions and unfortunately the most unsettled conditions over the weekend will be across Scotland, Ireland and, at times, N England. In contrast most of Wales and especially many central and southern areas of England will have a predominantly dry weekend. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) This is an area of low pressure situated to the north-west of the UK. Its associated weather fronts are moving into many northern and western areas of the UK today and overnight bringing mostly cloudy and damp conditions through the rest of the day and overnight. This area of low pressure will track to the north of the UK and become an influential feature of the weather this weekend for the northern half of the UK. 2) This is a region of high pressure situated to the south-west of the UK primarily but it is influencing the weather across more central and southern areas of England and Wales and will continue to do so over the weekend. Its influence is what will aid in providing mainly dry conditions over southern areas of the UK than in comparison to further north and hence produce that distinct north and south divide in conditions this weekend. SATURDAY: The low pressure tracking to the north of the UK will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers to most northern and western areas of the UK through the day. The showers will be most frequent and potentially heavy across Scotland, especially W Scotland, but also potentially affecting N Ireland and to a lesser extent N England. In-between the showers there will be some lengthy drier and brighter intervals. For most of the Republic of Ireland, Wales and most of England (away from N England) the day will be dry with plenty of bright or sunny spells but it will feel quite cool in a moderate or fresh W or NW’ly wind. The wind will be stronger across the northern half of the UK and this will aid to create a particularly chilly feel to the day across Scotland, Ireland and N England for the time of year. The high resolution model highlights this showery regime through the day across the northern half of the UK, but note the signal for predominantly dry conditions across most of England and Wales. ![]() SUNDAY: On into Sunday and the showers across the northern half of the UK from Saturday will still be in evidence as they are expected to continue throughout Saturday night and on into Sunday morning. As Sunday progress whilst still influencing the weather across the south the high pressure will decline a little and this will allow a greater risk of showers and longer spells of rain to move into many northern and western areas of the UK during the day. As a result Scotland, Ireland and N England will see a mixture of sunshine and showers but with an increasing risk of more organised outbreaks of rain, some perhaps heavy, developing from the west and then moving eastwards during the afternoon and evening in particular. It would seem that that most of Wales, Midlands, E Anglia and S England in general will maintain dry conditions through Sunday albeit with likely increasing cloud amounts and only brighter intervals rather than sunny spells. The GFS model highlights this well noting the more showery conditions at 0900, but then note by the end of the afternoon (1800) there is a far more significant signal for rain and showers across many northern and western areas whilst the south stays dry. ![]() TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this coming week will remain slightly below average and the rather unsettled and windy conditions across more northern and western areas of the UK will accentuate the rather cool/chilly feel. Clearly given drier and brighter conditions across more southern areas of the UK then temperatures will be higher across England and Wales, but even here maximum temperatures of around 12C to 15C is still slightly below average for the time of year now and some chilly nights remain possible too. The GFS model highlights the expected maximum temperatures both on Saturday and Sunday afternoon and clearly noting the rather uninspiring values. ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ............. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-north-and-south-divide/#sthash.Djn5MheE.dpuf Source ..........
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9:35 AM Jul 11