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Cool and Unsettled, Possibly Drier Later By Matt Hugo - May 17, 2015.
Topic Started: 17 May 2015, 12:08 PM (65 Views)
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Cool and Unsettled, Possibly Drier Later By Matt Hugo - May 17, 2015 11:07





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OVERVIEW: Low pressure continues to dominate the weather through the week and this, as a result, means further cool and unsettled conditions for many areas. There could well be an improvement in conditions later in the week for some areas of the UK, but there is uncertainty over this for now. Overall though emphasis is definitely on further rain, showers, wind and cool temperatures for many areas.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is a large and slow moving area of low pressure situated to the north and north-west of the UK. This low pressure is forecast to move down and become, essentially, located over the UK during the first half of the coming week before clearing away to the east later. It is this low pressure that will bring the unsettled conditions across many areas through until mid-week at least.

MONDAY: It’s a wet start to Monday across many areas of the UK with some persistent rain across many central and southern areas of England in particular. Some of the rain will be heavy and there will also likely be some gusty winds associated with the rain too. Behind the rain a clearance to brighter and drier conditions is expected for a time across Wales, Midlands and N England during the morning. However, showers across Scotland and Ireland will develop further and then spread further south and east across many areas during the course of Monday afternoon and into the evening. It should be highlighted though that once the more persistent rain has cleared away from the south and south-east of England by around noon then many southern areas of England should have a mainly dry and bright afternoon with just a few showers. The higher resolution model highlights this well.

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TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY: As the low pressure becomes located over the UK during Tuesday and into Wednesday this will signal a mixture of sunshine and showers across all areas of the UK. As is often the case the showers will be ‘hit and miss’ and some areas will see more showers than others. Some of the showers will be heavy with localised downpours with hail and thunder is certainly possible, especially so during Tuesday across more central and northern areas of the UK. By Wednesday the distribution of the showers may well be that the heaviest and most frequent ones are across more eastern areas of the UK, whilst conditions generally become drier and brighter further west. It will remain windy, especially so on Tuesday and this, coupled with the showers, will make for a particularly cool-feeling day. The 10KM model highlights this well, noting the large amount of showers in evidence across all areas of the UK on Tuesday, but then with a clear trend for some of the heaviest showers to be further east during Wednesday.

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THURSDAY and FRIDAY: There is some uncertainty over the weather for the end of the week, but at the moment an improving picture is likely, particularly for England and Wales. Mainly dry weather is likely apart from a few showers with some bright or sunny spells despite often large amounts of cloud. More unsettled conditions will, however, likely continue across parts of Scotland, Ireland and perhaps into N England at times but how far south these unsettled conditions get is the main uncertainty. So, for now more of a north and south divide in conditions is preferred for the end of the week with some further rain and showers in the north, whilst more southern areas of the UK generally become drier, brighter and probably a little warmer, but only in comparison to previous days. The GFS model highlights this general split in conditions well for Thursday.

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TEMPERATURES: Temperatures throughout the coming week will remain slightly below or below average. There is little risk of any significant warm weather and the combination of quite windy conditions with further rain and showers at times will accentuate the cool, if not rather cold feel for the time of year. Maximum temperatures over the week are likely to range between 8C and 12C across Scotland, Ireland and N England and between 10C and 15C across Wales and the rest of England but perhaps reaching 16C or 17C later in the week but this is uncertain for now and temperatures from the GFS model below for Friday could well be on the ‘high side’. Some further chilly nights are possible too where skies clear and many areas will see minimum temperatures fall into ‘single figures’ through the week but frost isn’t expected to be much of an issue. The GFS model highlights the expected temperatures on Monday, Wednesday and Friday to give you an idea as to the temperatures through the week.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link .................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/cool-and-unsettled-possibly-drier-later/#sthash.5znuioko.dpuf


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