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| Drier and Warmer to end the Week By Matt Hugo - May 20, 2015 | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 20 May 2015, 06:46 PM (27 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 20 May 2015, 06:46 PM Post #1 |
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Drier and Warmer to end the Week By Matt Hugo - May 20, 2015 12:23.![]() OVERVIEW: Yet further cool and unsettled conditions that have dominated so far this May have been in evidence so far this week too. However, a gradual improvement in conditions is expected throughout the remainder of the week with emphasis on drier and warmer weather developing. As is often the case though there will be an ‘exception to the rule’ and this will be across Scotland where further spells of rain and drizzle are possible at time. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) This is an area of low pressure that was responsible for the quite widespread and heavy showers during the course of Tuesday. This low pressure is clearing away and any residual showers that have developed today in association with this feature will quickly die away this evening. 2) This is a ridge of high pressure located to the south-west of the UK. This is forecast to build eastwards, into the UK, during the rest of the week but particularly be influential across England and Wales. It is this development that will signal a mainly dry end to the week across England and Wales with some bright or sunny spells and a recovery in temperatures too. 3) This is a low pressure system located to the north-west of the UK and weather fronts associated with this low pressure will move down into Scotland in particular through the rest of the week to maintain unsettled conditions here with outbreaks of rain and drizzle possible and some of this patchy rain and drizzle may filter down into N Ireland and N England at times. THURSDAY: A general north and south split in conditions is expected across the UK during the course of the day. Most of England and Wales will have a dry day with some bright or sunny spells, these perhaps prolonged at times and compared with of late it will feel increasingly warm and potentially quite humid too. In contrast across Scotland and N Ireland it will be mostly cloudy with some outbreaks of rain and drizzle possible throughout the day. Across W Scotland some heavier rain is possible for a time. Some of the rain and drizzle may well filter down into N England by the end of the day but by this time the rain or drizzle will be particularly light and patchy. Emphasis though is definitely on most of England and Wales having a dry day and with temperatures on the rise, especially across central and southern areas. The GFS model highlights this evolution well and note clearly that any precipitation during Thursday will be restricted to more northern areas of the UK, primarily Scotland, whilst the bulk of England and Wales is dry. Equally note as well temperatures do rise tomorrow and with the exception of W Scotland many areas are likely to see temperatures range between 13C and 17C, but temperatures up to 18C to 20C is certainly possible across more urban areas of SE England, a welcomed rise in temperatures after yet further below average temperatures so far this week. ![]() FRIDAY: Into Friday and whilst emphasis is still on a lot of dry weather overall there is expected to be more cloud around than compared with Thursday, especially across England and Wales. Conditions are expected to improve across Scotland though with drier and brighter weather developing here, but across most of Ireland, Wales and England despite some brighter intervals at times quite a lot of cloud is to be expected. The cloud may be thick enough in places too for some patchy light rain and drizzle, this is most likely across N England and N Wales during the day but a few isolated light showers may develop across the Midlands during the afternoon. The GFS model below highlights this situation and whilst the signal for precipitation is probably too widespread, it does highlight the risk of cloudier conditions with some patchy rain, drizzle and showers possible in places. Equally note that precipitation intensities are particularly low (denoted by the blue colours) so whilst the chart may look quite wet this isn’t likely to be the case with just patchy, nuisance value amounts of light rain and drizzle expected. Also note how temperatures remain warm, especially across England and Wales with maximum temperatures widely into the mid to high teens. Clearly it is expected to be cooler further north and west and especially so across Scotland as cooler weather develops here from the north through the day. ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ............... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/drier-and-warmer-to-end-the-week/#sthash.OU1D12nc.dpuf Source ............ ![]() |
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9:35 AM Jul 11