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A BBQ Bank Holiday? Not Quite… By Matt Hugo - May 22, 2015 -
Topic Started: 22 May 2015, 07:24 PM (51 Views)
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A BBQ Bank Holiday? Not Quite… Matt Hugo - May 22, 2015




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OVERVIEW: So, the second Bank Holiday of May comes around and overall the month of May is now likely to end up wetter than average and also cooler than average, no surprises there then. The combination of both April and May provide yet more evidence of the quite complex and ever changing weather that the UK can experience in a number of weeks, with two very contrasting months. For the coming weekend it is a case of; ‘could be worse, but could be better’ with Saturday providing the best of the weather this weekend, thereafter it is generally cooler, cloudier but with some dry weather too.

ANALYSIS:

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1) This is an area of low pressure passing to the north of the UK to end the week with its associated weather fronts bringing a lot of cloud and some patchy outbreaks of rain and drizzle across parts of the UK. This feature is clearing away to the north-east during the remainder of Friday and overnight into Saturday.

2) This is a ridge of high pressure situated to the west and south-west of the UK. It is this feature that will move into the UK during Saturday to provide some particularly pleasant conditions during the day with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures, but this feature is relatively short-lived.

3) This is another area of low pressure situated to the south of Greenland. Weather fronts associated with this low pressure are forecast to move into Scotland and Ireland later on Saturday and then progress south and south-eastwards across many areas overnight on Saturday and through into Sunday to produce some rain for a time but also signal a drop in temperatures during the latter half of the Bank Holiday weekend.

SATURDAY: Saturday will be the best day of the weekend. The ridge of high pressure that will build into the UK will signal fine and settled conditions for most areas. Despite some cloud, particularly across parts of E Anglia and SE England, there will be lengthy bright or sunny spells and temperatures will respond with it becoming pleasantly warm across most areas during the afternoon. Cloud will increase across Scotland and Ireland during the afternoon though and this will herald the arrival of outbreaks of rain here later in the day and then particularly overnight into Sunday. However, emphasis is definitely on a lot of fine, dry and pleasantly warm weather with certainly a good chance of getting the BBQ out for one day at least.

The GFS model highlights this situation well and clearly note that even by the middle of Saturday afternoon the majority of the UK is dry but with the wet weather approaching Scotland and Ireland by that time. Equally note how temperatures widely reach 14C to 18C during the course of Saturday afternoon. When this is coupled with light winds and some sunshine then again it will be a particularly pleasant afternoon, especially across England and Wales.

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SUNDAY: A change to generally cooler and cloudier conditions is expected during Sunday. The wet weather that is forecast to move into Scotland and Ireland during the latter half of Saturday will have continued to progress further south and east overnight and to start Sunday will be affecting most of Republic of Ireland, Wales and N England bringing overcast conditions and with some outbreaks of rain and showers at times. Ahead of this it will be a dry and perhaps bright start across S and SE England, whilst following on behind across Scotland and Ireland will be cooler and cloudier conditions with perhaps a few showers. Through the rest of Sunday the wet weather across central areas of the UK to start the day will move southwards into S England but weakening as it does so, whilst Scotland, Ireland and N England then become brighter but still with a lot of cloud and it will be markedly cooler than Saturday.

The GFS model highlights this situation well and clearly note the zone of wet weather stretching south-west to north-east across Wales and N England during the morning and this then continues to progress southwards but weakening as it does so. Also note the temperatures as well are generally much lower across many northern and western areas of the UK during the afternoon, but with some warmth just about lingering across the far SE of England.

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BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY: Into Bank Holiday Monday and the day will generally be dry across most areas. Some scattered showers may develop across some northern and western areas during the afternoon but emphasis is on a particularly quiet and benign day in terms of weather. A cool NW’ly wind will dominate and this will bring some cloud across all areas at times so bright or sunny spells are possible, but without being too extensive or prolonged. It will feel pleasant in any sunshine, but equally temperatures will be slightly below average for late May after a chilly start to the day too. The 10KM model highlights this situation overall and whilst probably over-doing the signal for showers across more northern and western areas does highlight a lot of dry weather but note temperatures are no higher than around 9C to 16C at very best.

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Chief Forecaster: MH

Source Info: eumetrain.org


Link .................. http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/a-bbq-bank-holiday-not-quite/#sthash.JoaHDZ9t.dpuf

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