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| From Fine and Dry to Wet and Windy By Matt Hugo - May 24, 2015. | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 24 May 2015, 01:16 PM (30 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | 24 May 2015, 01:16 PM Post #1 |
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From Fine and Dry to Wet and Windy By Matt Hugo - May 24, 2015.![]() OVERVIEW: The coming week will, essentially, be a week of two halves. The first half of the week providing relatively quiet and benign conditions across most areas of the UK albeit with a lot of cloud and continued depressed temperatures for late May. From mid-week onwards quite an abrupt change to far more unsettled conditions is expected and with the risk of some particularly wet weather late Wednesday and into Thursday along with some unseasonably strong winds too. ANALYSIS: ![]() 1) This is a region of high pressure situated to the south-west of the UK and of which will help to maintain predominantly settled and benign conditions during the early part of the week. However, the position of the high pressure will be that it will allow for a lot of cloud to come down into the UK on a relatively cool NW’ly wind. This high pressure will decline further to the south-west from mid-week onwards allowing for more unsettled conditions to move into the UK. 2) Low pressure systems will attempt to move over the top of the high pressure and this is one such feature near the southern tip of Greenland. Once the high pressure declines to the south-west, from mid-week, then low pressure systems will be able to cross the Atlantic and move into the UK more directly. MONDAY and TUESDAY: The first half of the week can be grouped together. The high pressure situated to the south-west will be a dominant feature of the weather and this will maintain a cool and rather cloudy NW’ly air mass over the UK. As a result the weather during Monday and Tuesday will be particularly benign and quiet. There will be a lot of cloud across the UK on both days despite some limited bright or sunny spells in places. The cloud may also be thick enough for some patchy light rain and drizzle across parts of Scotland, Ireland and N England at times. The GFS model highlights this rather quiet and benign period of weather well. Note on the weather charts below some patchy precipitation is signalled but clearly there is a lot of dry weather too, albeit with a lot of cloud. ![]() WEDNESDAY: During Wednesday most areas of the UK will still remain predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells. However, changes will take place from the west so the further west you’re located then more quickly the weather will deteriorate during the day. High pressure is still expected to influence the weather across more southern and eastern areas with some bright or sunny spells, despite further variable amounts of cloud and in general many southern and eastern areas of the UK will remain dry throughout most of the day. However, cloud will thicken from the west and outbreaks of rain and increasingly windy conditions will develop during the latter half of the afternoon and into the evening across Scotland and Ireland initially before then spreading eastwards into England andWales late in the day. The 10KM model below highlights this situation well clearing noting that by 1200 (left image) most areas of the UK are still dry as high pressure influences the weather just to the south and south-west. However, note by 2100 (right image) low pressure has moved into Scotland with increasingly unsettled conditions developing. This will then signal a particularly wet and windy overnight period on Wednesday night and through into Thursday morning with winds perhaps gusting up to 40mph to 50mph across some northern and western areas as winds become more W and eventually NW’ly. ![]() ![]() THURSDAY: Thursday starts wet and windy across many areas and without any question Thursday will be the most unsettled day of the coming week. Overnight rain is still likely to be present across more eastern areas of England and Scotland meaning a wet and windy start here. The more persistent rain will clear away to the east, into the North Sea and then many areas of the UK will be dominated by a mixture of sunshine and showers. The showers are likely to be most frequent across Scotland, Ireland, N England and Wales, whilst more southern areas of England will experience some lengthy drier and brighter conditions during the afternoon once any morning rain has cleared. Of importance will be strength of the winds with a very gusty NW’ly wind likely for a time with further gusts up to 50mph possible, which is particularly strong for the time of year and may bring some travel disruption. The 10KM model below highlights the wet start to the day but then note a more showery setup into the evening and wind gusts have been exampled below as well for midday on Thursday highlighting the risk of some very strong winds for late May. ![]() ![]() FRIDAY: The week is expected to end generally unsettled but there is a lot of uncertainty over the timing and details of any further wet weather. At the moment the first half of the day may well be predominantly dry with some bright or sunny spells and mainly dry conditions may well persist for most of the day across more southern and eastern areas of the UK. However, further outbreaks of rain and showers are likely to develop across Ireland during the afternoon and then spread eastwards to bring a wet end to the day across most areas, but again there is uncertainty over the forecast for now but this is something we will look at and provide more detail on as the week progresses. TEMPERATURES: Temperatures this week will continue to run slightly below average overall. The NW’ly wind on Monday and Tuesday will signal near or slightly below average temperatures for most areas and the development of more unsettled conditions during the second half of the week will also mean temperatures will be quite depressed for the time of year and it will feel quite cool and chilly in the NW’ly wind during Thursday in particular. Below is the 10KM model temperatures for Monday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon to give an idea as to the temperature trends through the week but overall expect another cool week, but perhaps with Wednesday providing the highest temperatures of the week but this then being followed by a particularly cool day on Thursday. ![]() ![]() Chief Forecaster: MH Source Info: eumetrain.org Link ............... http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/from-fine-and-dry-to-wet-and-windy/#sthash.qQbJHazF.dpuf Source ............. ![]() |
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9:35 AM Jul 11